Did I bet well or did I get lucky?: Insights from betting on the NFL this season

I’m Ben Fawkes and welcome to my sports betting mailbag.

I’ve been in the sports betting industry since 2010, and while I’m not a handicapper, I gained plenty of knowledge about the world of sports betting. I’m here to share my insights with you.

I look forward to answering your sports betting questions about the upcoming Week 13 games. Feel free to DM me at @BFawkes22 on X to submit a question. I hope you enjoyed last week’s mailbag.

There are always ebbs and flows, Jessica, but Week 12 was a terrific weekend of NFL betting for the public for a few reasons:

1. Favorites went 12-4 against the spread, and almost every big favorite (except Detroit on Thanksgiving) won and covered.
2. Some of those games were isolated, or island, games – meaning they were the only games on TV. The Cowboys (-13.5) and 49ers (-7) on Thanksgiving, and the Dolphins (-10) on Black Friday had more dollars wagered because there weren’t other NFL games on at the same time.
3. Other games the public loved – Eagles (-2.5), Chiefs (-9), Rams (-3.5) and Ravens (-3.5) – also hit.

In general, if more than 80% of bets are on one side of an NFL game, you will profit in the long run from betting against that side. This year, those teams are hitting at a higher rate.

Speaking of profit, bet just $5 on DraftKings and instantly get $150 in bonus bets.

In Week 13, four sides (including Dallas on TNF) at DraftKings Sportsbook are at that threshold:

• 86% of bets on Lions at -4

• 82% of bets on Chargers at -6

• 80% of bets on Dolphins at -9.5

Think you know Lions football? Play the MLive.com Prop Bet Showdown for a chance to win prizes!

Sidelines Group provides MLive with original sports betting, lottery and casino content including odds, analysis, predictions and reviews to educate bettors. Please bet responsibly.

If you have a gambling problem and are located in Michigan, call 1-800-GAMBLER or 1-800-270-7117 or you can visit the Michigan Gaming Control Board’s website at https://www.michigan.gov/mgcb.