Dodgers-Guardians prediction: Picks, odds on Thursday, August 24

The Los Angeles Dodgers (76-48) and Cleveland Guardians (60-66) will have a quasi-doubleheader to play on Thursday, finishing up the remainder of Wednesday’s rained-out contest (the Dodgers hold a 3-1 lead entering the bottom of the third) before playing the series finale later this afternoon. Ryan Pepiot (0-0, 1.80 ERA) will get the ball for Los Angeles in that one, while the Guardians turn to rookie Gavin Williams (1-4, 3.02)

The Dodgers enter as -142 favorites on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with Cleveland at +120. The run total is set at 9.

Dodgers-Guardians picks: Thursday, August 24th

Injury report

Dodgers

Out: SP Michael Grove (lat), RP Joe Kelly (forearm), DH J.D. Martinez (groin), CF Johnny Deluca (hamstring), SP Tony Gonsolin (elbow)

Guardians

Out: SP Cal Quantrill (shoulder), C Cam Gallagher (concussion), C David Fry (hamstring), 1B Josh Naylor (oblique), SP Shane Bieber (elbow), Triston McKenzie (elbow)

Starting pitchers

Ryan Pepiot vs. Gavin Williams

With injuries continuing to beset the Dodgers’ rotation, Pepiot will get another chance to start on Thursday. The righty was held out for months with an oblique injury, only making his season debut this past weekend with five innings of one-run ball against the Miami Marlins. That appearance was following an opener, so this will be Pepiot’s first start of the year after pitching well in seven outings in 2022 (3.47 ERA, 42 Ks, 36.1 IP). The 26-year-old has long been among L.A.’s better pitching prospects, with a solid three-pitch mix headlined by a very effective changeup.

Speaking of pitching prospects: Williams is among the best in baseball, although his flashes of brilliance have been undercut by bouts of inconsistency in his first taste of the Majors. The righty allowed just one run with a whopping 22 strikeouts in 12 innings across two starts against the Blue Jays and Rays, but he fell flat last time out against the Tigers, allowing three runs on six hits and two walks over five frames while taking the loss. When his command is right, his potential is obvious, with a fastball he can run up into the high 90s, a razor-blade slider and a big 12-6 curve. The command comes and goes, however, as evidenced by four starts of four walks or more already this year.

Over/Under pick

This one is tough to read. The Dodgers have been among the best offenses in baseball this month, although they’ve cooled off a little of late (three or fewer runs in each of their last five games), and while Williams is a wild card he’s shown frontline starter potential when he’s on. I don’t expect a depleted Cleveland lineup to score much off Pepiot and L.A.’s bullpen in this spot, so I’ll take the under and bank on Williams doing just enough to avoid too crooked of a number.

Pick: Under 9

Moneyline pick

The Dodgers have the far, far better lineup, and while Williams’ ceiling is far higher than Pepiot’s, his floor is also much lower. There isn’t too much juice on this line, so I’ll back the favorites to get a win here.