Rangers-Twins prediction: Picks, odds on Saturday, August 26

The Texas Rangers’ (72-56) losing streak hit eight games in a 12-2 blowout on Friday night, and now they’ll turn to ace Max Scherzer to get them back on track in game three of their four-game set against the Minnesota Twins (67-62). Scherzer (9-4, 4.01 ERA) will be going up against struggling Twins righty Joe Ryan (9-8, 4.43), with first pitch from Target Field set for 7:15 p.m. ET.

Despite their recent struggles, the Rangers enter as narrow -118 favorites on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with Minnesota at -102. The run total is set at 8.

Rangers-Twins picks: Saturday, August 26

Injury report

Rangers

Out: SP Nathan Eovaldi (elbow), DH Brad Miller (hamstring), 3B Josh Jung (thumb)

Twins

Out: SP Joe Ryan (groin), DH Byron Buxton (hamstring), 3B Jose Miranda (shoulder), 1B Alex Kirilloff (shoulder), RP Brock Stewart (elbow), OF Nick Gordon (lower leg), RP Jose De Leon (elbow), OF Willi Castro (oblique), RP Oliver Ortega (back)

Starting pitchers

Max Scherzer vs. Joe Ryan

Scherzer had been dynamite over his first three starts in Texas this month, but as the team has struggled, so too has its new ace. The future Hall of Famer was roughed up in a loss to the Brewers last weekend, giving up three runs on three hits and four walks in just 3.2 innings of work. Scherzer had allowed just one run on four hits over his previous 14 innings, and he’ll look to get back on track today with among the league’s best expected batting averages (89th percentile) and K rates (81st percentile).

Here’s how things have gone for Ryan of late, summed up in one handy chart:

The righty looked like a dark-horse Cy Young contender in the first half, but after posting a 6.39 ERA in July he started August by giving up seven runs on nine hits (including four homers) in a loss to the St. Louis Cardinals. That prompted a stint on the injured list — apparently Ryan had been pitching through discomfort in his groin — and he’ll be making his first start in over three weeks tonight. The long ball has been a problem for the righty all year, as he’s given up a whopping 25 in just 126 innings of work.

Over/Under pick

The past few weeks have seen a real offensive role reversal, with the Twins among baseball’s hottest offenses and the Rangers finding themselves in the bottom half of the league. Given all the pitching unknowns involved here, this number feels a bit too low: Ryan was getting torched before going on the IL and will now be returning without so much as a single rehab start, while Scherzer looked awfully shaky last time out and has been far from impenetrable this season. With Minnesota catching fire at the plate, I think we hit this total fairly comfortably.

Pick: Over 8

Moneyline pick

At the end of the day, I have more faith in Scherzer to deliver a quality start than Ryan right now, and at some point Texas has to stop this losing skid, right? A home run problem is a bad thing to have against this still-dangerous Rangers lineup, and I think they get back in the win column tonight.