Dodgers vs Braves Prediction, Picks, Odds

Covers

22 May 2023

Dodgers vs Braves Prediction, Picks, Odds

Charlie Morton is rested and is expected to go deep tonight, but that should give the Dodgers ample opportunity to do some damage. We break down the matchup, best bet, and more in our MLB betting picks below.

The two best teams in the National League standings square off as the Los Angeles Dodgers head to Truist Park for a three-game series with the Atlanta Braves.

These squads are no strangers, having met in both the 2020 and 2021 NLCS. It wouldn’t be surprising if this week’s series is a sampling of yet another future playoff matchup.

I break down the MLB odds and give you the best bet on the board for Game 1 in my full MLB betting picks for Dodgers vs. Braves below.

Dodgers vs Braves odds

Dodgers vs Braves predictions

The Los Angeles Dodgers are 6-4 across their last 10 games and enter on a two-game losing streak after falling both Saturday (6-5) and Sunday (10-5) to the Cardinals. Injuries in the rotation have continued to pile up, having lost both Julio Urias and Dustin May last week.

The Atlanta Braves enter this series after taking two of three from the Mariners and it was a much-needed boost for Atlanta, which is just 4-6 across its last 10. Similar to the Dodgers, the Braves are also dealing with plenty of health concerns in the rotation and recently lost both Kyle Wright and Max Fried to injury.

They will look to get everything that they can out of starter Charlie Morton as he'll be pitching on six days of rest. He was terrific in his last outing, striking out 10 batters across six innings against the Rangers. This team has been relying on the bullpen lately to deal with the rotation’s health troubles, and getting a lot out of Morton would be crucial in this spot.

With that said, I think the best value on the board can be found in Morton’s props, with plus money being offered on the Over for his earned runs allowed prop, which is set at 2.5.

Morton’s profile screams regression — his 4.40 xERA towers above his 2.85 actual ERA. The Dodgers have been avoiding the strikeout well, posting a 19.4% K-rate against right-handers across the last 10 days. If they put the ball in play enough here against a starter looking to go as deep into the game as possible, I believe that the opportunity for runs will be available.

This is typically a spot where we’d expect runs out of the Dodgers, who are 13-3 O/U in their last 16 games against a right-handed starter. They’ve mashed righties all season to the tune of a 114 wRC+ (third) and a .338 wOBA (fourth).

My best bet: Charlie Morton Over 2.5 earned run allowed (+125)

Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.

Best MLB bonuses

Looking to bet on some baseball action? Here are two of the best bonuses* available:

B) Get a profit boost up to 100% on one MLB same-game parlay at DraftKings! Opt-in Now

best sportsbook promotions for 2023.
21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER

Dodgers vs Braves moneyline analysis

The Braves opened as a slight -120 favorite but have since garnered a lot of love in the market, moving up the price. The best odds available at current are Braves -150 and Dodgers +140.

Atlanta has been a tough place for the Dodgers to play as they're just 2-6 in the last eight meetings at Truist Park. The Braves are always tough to beat, but especially so in series openers — they're 38-13 across their last 51 during Game 1 of a series.

Although the Dodgers do hit right-handed pitching well, they’ve surprisingly gone 0-4 in their last four road games when facing a right-handed starter.

One would have to give the Braves the starting pitching advantage, although it's a strange handicap that may not be as one-sided as it initially appears. One certainly has to acknowledge the experience gap — the 39-year-old Morton is an MLB mainstay, while the Dodgers’ Gavin Stone will be making just his second career start.

As noted above, Morton’s 4.40 xERA is a bit of a concern. Stone was knocked around for four earned in his first career start but has rebounded well since then in Triple-A, allowing just three combined earned runs across 11 innings.

Dodgers vs Braves Over/Under analysis

Be sure to shop around if playing the total as both 9 and 9.5 are currently being offered depending on where you look.

The Dodgers lineup remains dangerous this season, ranking seventh in both wRC+ (110) and wOBA (.332). When looking at recent performance, they check in at 12th in wRC+ (103) and 15th in wOBA (.321) over the last 10 days.

The Braves have one of the best lineups in baseball but haven’t been in peak form lately. They rank fourth in wRC+ (114) and third in wOBA (.344) on the season. Across the last 10 days, they check in at 15th in wRC+ (102) and 11th in wOBA (.326).

One thing of note in the trends analysis is that these teams have trended toward the Under when facing one another, going 0-5 O/U across the last five meetings.

On the flip side, Atlanta has tended to get into high-scoring games when playing up in competition. In the Braves’ last 23 games against a team with a winning percentage above .600%, they're 17-4-2 to the Over.

They’ve also been cruising to the Over at home, going 14-5 O/U in their last 19 games in Atlanta.

Dodgers vs Braves game info

Starting pitchers

Gavin Stone (0-0, 9.00 ERA): The rookie will be making just his second career start. One of the Dodgers’ top pitching prospects, Stone will hope for better results after allowing five runs (four earned) across four innings in his debut on May 3 against the Phillies. His 4.04 ERA and 5.07 FIP across 35 2/3 innings in Triple-A have been disappointing, but he does possess tantalizing potential.

Charlie Morton (5-3, 2.85 ERA): Morton continues to chug along at age 39. While his 2.85 ERA is excellent, both his 4.40 xERA and 3.59 FIP indicate that some regression is due in the near future. He’s in fine form after allowing just two combined earned runs across 12 2/3 innings in his last two starts and has performed well at home this season with a 2.50 ERA.