Braves vs. Phillies Predictions, Picks & Odds

sportsbookreview.com

12 October 2023

The Philadelphia Phillies will try to secure their ticket to the National League Championship Series against the Atlanta Braves in Game 4 of the NLDS, and ourbest Braves-Phillies prediction for Game 4 is based on the best MLB odds.

The Atlanta Braves won an MLB-best 104 games in the regular season andbeat the Philadelphia Phillies eight times in 13 head-to-head meetings.However, all that will be for naught if they do not win Game 4 and send theseries back to Atlanta for a decisive fifth game. They've already had their World Series odds worsen considerably.

These two teams have met in thepostseason twice before this year, with the Phillies winning both encounters.

A date against the Arizona Diamondbacks in the NLCS awaits the series winner.

Hereis our best Braves-Phillies prediction for Game 4 of the NLDS (odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a1-to-5-star scale).

Braves vs. Phillies prediction: NLDS Game 4

Phillies ML (+130 viabet365) ⭐⭐⭐

When speaking about momentum in baseball, Hall of Fame managerEarl Weaver once famously said, “Momentum is only as good as tomorrow’sstarting pitcher.”

Atlanta starting pitcher Spencer Strider may be theace of the staff, but he's walking into a house of horrors after getting litup for five earned runs in 2 1/3 innings in Game 3 of last year’s NLDS, which the Braves lost 9-1.

Philadelphia is 9-2 in its previous 11 playoff games atCitizens Bank Park, including beating the Braves by a combined 27-6 during that period, and its hot bats should carry into this game.

The Braves tied the major-league record with 307 home runs thisseason, but no team has hit more long balls since Aug. 1 than the Phillies.Philadelphia tied an MLB postseason record with six home runs on Wednesday, andBryce Harper’s two homers in Game 3 gave him 10 career big flies in theNLDS, the most in history.

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Philadelphia is throwing No. 3 starter RangerSuarez out there on Thursday, but, unlike Strider, who threw 94 pitches in Game 1, Suarez willbe much more rested after throwing only 53.

The Phillies' bullpen backed Suarez upwith 5 1/3 innings of four-hit scoreless baseball, and the pitching staff as awhole has a 1.64 ERA and 0.89 WHIP this postseason, so it will not beintimidated by Atlanta’s powerful lineup.

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Braves vs. Phillies best odds

Four of ourfive best sports betting apps offer the same +130 moneyline odds on the Phillies. Interestingly, though BetMGM is at only +125 on the ML, it hasthe same -130 odds as Caesars and bet365 to back the Phillies on the run line(+1.5), which will likely sway many bettors to opt for the extra run worth ofinsurance.

Braves vs. Phillies odds

FanDuel and DraftKings are the only two of our best sports betting sites with reported line movement thusfar, and the moneyline has moved in the Phillies' direction.

FanDuel went from Braves -158/Phillies +134 to Braves -154/Phillies +130. At DraftKings, Philadelphia has shortened from +136 to +130 underdogs. Datingback to the regular season, the Phillies have won seven straight home gamesagainst NL East opponents.

All of our best sportsbooks are in unison with an O/U of 8.5 runs, and most are juiced to theOver (as high as -120 at BetMGM, Caesars, and DraftKings), while BetRivers isthe only one with lower odds (-104) to back the Over. The Over is 7-1 inAtlanta's last eight road games.