Don't overlook these 3 fillies on the Kentucky Oaks trail
Affirmative Lady will attempt to break her maiden Saturday in the $100,000 Busanda Stakes at Aqueduct. Last month the long-winded filly lost by only a neck to Julia Shining in the local Demoiselle Stakes (G2) and gives the impression of a filly flying under the radar in the Oaks division.
Think about the fact that Julia Shining has made many fans’ Oaks lists with the come-from-behind Demoiselle win, and Affirmative Lady lost by a neck margin after a wide trip overall and a wide move into the far turn. In dirt racing, 3/4 of a length feels like nothing in terms of difference of ability, which makes Affirmative Lady slightly underrated.
Given Affirmative Lady’s sire is Arrogate, a late bloomer who tends to sire other late bloomers, it feels like the best days are ahead for this filly. Whether Affirmative Lady finally prevails this weekend or another week, look for Affirmative Lady to blossom under trainer Graham Motion.
Who are some other runner-up fillies in Kentucky Oaks-related races who might be underappreciated by the public at this point?
Pride of the Nile seems to be another overlooked Oaks filly after running great but not winning the Starlet Stakes (G2) last month at Los Alamitos. She lost to the Bob Baffert-trained Faiza by only a head.
Considering Pride of the Nile found trouble in the Starlet, the replay deserves a watch. The chart notes also point out the terrible trip.
Pride of the Nile stumbled at the start and veered into Uncontrollable in the process. For most inexperienced horses, that would end their race already. Then later on, she bumped a couple of times while making an inside bid in the stretch. Pride of the Nile looked Faiza in the eye and barely lost.
In that runner-up effort, Pride of the Nile made her dirt debut in the Starlet after three turf races. She feels likely to move forward soon and become a major player, at least in the Santa Anita part of the Oaks trail.
The last filly to discuss is the Bill Mott-trained Padma, who finished second in the Cash Run Stakes at Gulfstream to Infinite Diamond by 2 1/4 lengths. This situation feels a little different because Padma lost by a wider margin than the other two fillies discussed above.
To give Padma credit, she came off an almost four-month layoff in the Cash Run and ran a good race considering the break. She has room to improve, especially as the distances increase. Padma only beat the third-place Lynx by a only nose, but notice Lynx had 6 1/2 lengths on the fourth-place Arella Star. Wide margins signal a quality race in most cases.
For some reason, the Cash Run is not an official Oaks points race. It does not make sense, as most of the fillies who enter the Cash Run aspire to move along the Gulfstream portion of the Kentucky Oaks trail. Nevertheless, Padma lost to a good filly in Infinite Diamond.
Even though Padma’s dam Kareena competed as a sprinter in a short career, the potential for Padma to handle longer routes is there with Tapit on top and Medaglia d’Oro as the damsire. Furthermore, Padma looks like a runner who wants to route in longer distances from a visual standpoint.
In either her second or third start off the bench, look for Padma to make noise on the Oaks trail as one of the more serious contenders.
Much of the reason these fillies are underappreciated is their last-out result. The difference between first and second is huge in the public’s eye. In many cases, last-out winners become overbet in their next start, and the horses who ran second by a small margin end up as the intriguing overlays to bet.
Of course, finding value is the focus of horse betting in most cases, which makes analyzing these runner-up finishers and keeping tabs on them for next time a good exercise.
