Draws and Fades: Expect low scores and weekend volatility in Mexico

The birdie-fest is on in Los Cabos. Two rounds are (almost) in the books at the World Wide Technology Championship and 41-year old Camilo Villegas is your leader, already at 16 under at the halfway point. Villegas leads former tournament champion Matt Kuchar by two shots while an additional 13 players make up the top 10 on the leaderboard. Erik van Rooyen is four back after making double bogey on the 18th hole on Friday. Play was suspended in Round 2 due to darkness, with 12 players still on the course.

+600: Camilo Villegas (-16), Matt Kuchar (-14)
+650: Ludvig Åberg (-11)
+700: Stephan Jaeger (-13)
+750: Justin Suh (-13)
+1400: Erik van Rooyen (-12)
+2000: Chesson Hadley (-12), Will Gordon (-12)
+2800: Doug Ghim (-11), Matti Schmid (-11), Michael Kim (-11)

Cameron Percy got the "go low" show started on Thursday at El Cardonal, firing a 10-under 62 to grab first round leader honors. With temperatures in the mid-80's and winds well under 10 mph, the players are taking advantage of the easy scoring conditions. It is not all that dissimilar from what we saw back in April at the Mexico Open at Vidanta Vallarta. Comfortable temperatures, Paspalum grass throughout and low winds produced a winning score of 24 under for Tony Finau. This week's winning score proposition bet was posted at 23.5 under par. The forecast is calling for temperatures to creep up slightly, and the wind to pick up toward 10-15 mph over the weekend.

Put this in your handicapping file for future reference, too. Not only does the scoring look similar to what we saw at the Mexico Open earlier this year, but so do the players involved. Will Gordon, van Rooyen, Akshay Bhatia and Brandon Wu were all inside the top 10 heading into Sunday's final round at Vidanta Vallarta. Here after 36 holes, they all reside inside the top 20 with Gordon and van Rooyen currently tied for fifth place.

Speaking of Finau, he went into the weekend at the Mexico Open with a two-shot lead over Jon Rahm and ended up winning by three shots. When players are faced with a very difficult test of golf and you throw in some nasty weather conditions, there is likely to be volatility atop the leaderboard. When conditions are benign and the golf course is playing easy, it favors the front-runners. It is much easier for them to pull away from the pack when the conditions are not beating everyone up - and we see more circles on scorecards than squares.

So how will all of this play out for Villegas, who is seeking his first PGA TOUR victory since 2014? Here are my Draws and Fades with two rounds left to play, with odds via BetMGM.

Jaeger hasn't missed a cut on TOUR since April and finished 18th at the Mexico Open that same month. He was 15th at the Mexico Open in 2022 - so he seems to have taken a liking to this type of golf course, and these conditions. He's three back of Villegas after shooting two very steady rounds of 66 and 65. He is excellent off the tee and on approach and has been putting beautifully so far in this championship. Historically, putting has been his weakness but he has been improving greatly in this area recently. Pre-tournament, Jaeger opened up in the neighborhood of +2800 to win. He was bet down aggressively and closed at around +2000. So far, pre-tournament bettors have been rewarded with a player that is definitely in contention. I believe he stays there and will have a chance to capture his first ever TOUR win on Sunday.

Kim was a player that I nearly jumped on for an outright win pre-tournament. The odds are much shorter now after getting to 11-under par through two rounds but he's backing up what I originally thought was possible. Kim opened with a 64 on Thursday and followed it up with a relatively disappointing 69 on Friday. I get the feeling his bad round is out of the way and he'll return to go-low mode over the weekend. He's one of the better putters in the field and over the last 24-rounds, ranked 29th in this field, coming in, for Strokes Gained: Approach. Kim's only win on TOUR was the 2018 John Deere Classic. He won that event going away with a score of 27-under par - so he's shown without a doubt that he can compete in a birdie-fest. It's not a bad price for a player that is tied for ninth with 36-holes left to play.

We spoke about how the front-runners have an advantage and certainly Villegas does have a head start, but I can't get myself to back a 41-year-old who hasn't won in over nine years and is currently ranked 746th in the world. I always really enjoyed Villegas, a Florida Gator, when he arrived on TOUR in 2006. He was flashy, swashbuckling, and had charisma. He's dialing all of that up again 18 years later but I don't have faith that it will hold up through the weekend. This is only the 11th TOUR event he's played in the last year. Over that time, he's missed the cut seven times. In addition, I believe his odds of winning ought to be closer to +900 or +1000 but what is being posted is obviously a lot lower than that. For his sake, I hope he continues to turn back the clock - but I'm not betting that he does.

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