2023 Mexico Open at Vidanta odds, picks, field: PGA predictions, bets from model that nailed nine majors

The 2023 Mexico Open at Vidanta is set to get underway on Thursday, April 27, and a number of players will enter this week's event confident they can secure the victory. Jon Rahm is the defending champion and he's already secured four victories on the PGA Tour this season. Rahm enters the Mexico Open 2023 as one of the best iron players on tour, ranking third in both strokes gained: approach to green (1.102) and greens in regulation percentage (73.12%). 

Meanwhile, Tony Finau, a five-time PGA Tour champion, can add to his impressive resume with a victory at the 2023 Mexico Open. Finau finished on top of the leaderboard at the Houston Open earlier this season and he secured a T-2 finish at this event in 2022. The latest 2023 Mexico Open odds list Rahm as the +290 favorite, with Finau (+850) next in line on the PGA odds board. Before locking in your 2023 Mexico Open at Vidanta picks, be sure to see the golf predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

Our proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has been red-hot since the PGA Tour resumed in June of 2020. In fact, the model is up over $8,500 on its best bets since the restart, nailing tournament after tournament.

McClure's model predicted Rahm would finish on top of the leaderboard at the 2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions and The American Express. And at the 2023 Masters, the model was all over Rahm's second career major victory heading into the weekend. Rahm was two strokes off the lead heading into the third round, but the model still projected him as the winner.

In addition, the model included Nick Hardy and Davis Riley in its best bets to win the 2023 Zurich Classic. That bet hit at +4500, and for the entire tournament, McClure's best bets returned over $1,100. McClure's best bets also included J.T. Poston winning outright at the 2022 John Deere Classic, even though he was listed as a massive 55-1 longshot.

This same model has also nailed a whopping nine majors entering the weekend. Anyone who has followed it has seen massive returns. 

Now that the 2023 Mexico Open at Vidanta field is locked, SportsLine simulated the tournament 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard.

Top 2023 Mexico Open at Vidanta predictions 

One major surprise the model is calling for at the Mexico Open 2023: Davis Riley, who's coming off his first career victory on the PGA Tour and is one of the top favorites this week, stumbles in Mexico and doesn't even crack the top 10. Riley will certainly enter this week's event full of confidence after securing a win at the Zurich Classic and finishing in fifth-place at the Mexico Open in 2022. 

However, Riley has struggled mightily with his accuracy off the tee this season, which will be paramount at Vidanta Vallarta. In fact, nine of the top 15 golfers on the leaderboard last year were in the top-10 in strokes gained: off-the-tee. Riley enters this week's event ranked 120th in that category, which doesn't bode well for his chances to finish on top of the leaderboard. He's not a strong pick to win it all and there are far better values in the Mexico Open 2023 field.

Another surprise: Emiliano Grillo, a 50-1 longshot, makes a strong run at the title. Grillo has a much better chance to win it all than his odds imply, so he's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. 

Grillo certainly has the game to finish near the top of the leaderboard this week. The 30-year-old is coming off a T-7 finish at the RBC Heritage, and he's finished inside the top 25 four times already this season. He also ranks inside the top 40 in strokes gained: off the tee (.321) and total driving (157). He's averaging 28.89 putts per round this season, but if he's draining putts this week, he'll have a great shot at finishing on top of the leaderboard at the 2023 Mexico Open. See who else to pick here. 

How to make 2023 Mexico Open at Vidanta picks

The model is also targeting three other longshots that are listed higher than 40-1. Anyone who backs these longshots could hit it big. You can only see the model's PGA picks here.

So who will win the Mexico Open 2023? And which longshots stun the golfing world? Check out the 2023 Mexico Open odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the projected 2023 Mexico Open leaderboard, all from the model that's nailed nine golf majors.

2023 Mexico Open at Vidanta odds, field

Jon Rahm +290Tony Finau +850Wyndham Clark +2100Davis Riley +2800Gary Woodland +3200Nicolai Hojgaard +3400Maverick Mcnealy +3400Patrick Rodgers +3600Alex Noren +3700Taylor Pendrith +4100Byeong Hun An +4800Emiliano Grillo +5000Beau Hossler +5000Stephan Jaeger +5500Nick Hardy +5500Aaron Rai +5500Ben Martin +5500Andrew Putnam +5500Alex Smalley +5500S.H. Kim +6500Robby Shelton +6500Brandon Wu +6500Garrick Higgo +6500Will Gordon +7000Matt Wallace +7500Mark Hubbard +7500Luke List +8500Lee Hodges +8500Joseph Bramlett +9000Lanto Griffin +9000Patton Kizzire +9000David Lipsky +9000Francesco Molinari +9000Chez Reavie +9000MJ Daffue +9000Dylan Wu +9000Nate Lashley +10000Cameron Champ +10000Eric Cole +10000Harry Hall +10000Kevin Streelman +11000Ryan Gerard +11000Akshay Bhatia +11000Michael Kim +12000Vincent Norrman +12000Peter Malnati +12000Erik Van Rooyen +13000Harry Higgs +13000Austin Eckroat +13000Andrew Novak +13000Scott Piercy +15000Jimmy Walker +15000Charley Hoffman +15000Kevin Chappell +15000Greyson Sigg +15000Adam Long +15000Lucas Glover +16000Sean O'Hair +16000Matthias Schmid +16000Matthias Schwab +16000Dylan Frittelli +16000Doug Ghim +18000Augusto Nunez +18000Aaron Baddeley +18000Ben Taylor +18000Henrik Norlander +18000Kevin Tway +21000Carl Yuan +21000