Early college football bowl projections entering Week 5: FSU, OSU left out of CFP
One month through the 2023 college football season has us with more questions than answers. Yes, there are plenty of teams that we think are good (Texas and Washington), others that we know are good (Georgia and Michigan), as well as others that might be somewhere in between (Florida State and Ohio State). So with that in mind, we have some College Football Playoff projections to navigate.
This year is the final four-team playoff. The Rose Bowl and the Sugar Bowl will be serving as the two national semifinal games. While these two bowls do not technically have the traditional tie-ins we have grown accustomed to, odds are a Big 12 or an SEC team would prefer to go to New Orleans, whereas a Big Ten or a Pac-12 team is thinking about waking up and smelling the roses in Pasadena.
It is all good stuff, but again, only four teams can make these two games. Of course, there will be four other meaningful holiday-season bowl games to sink our teeth into. One of those remaining eight slots will go to the Group of Five champion with the magnificent seven left going to either Power Five conference champions or other high-quality teams of the at-large variety. We still have a ways to go.
Whether it is USA TODAY Sports, ESPN, The Action Network, CBS Sports or heck, even FanSided, here are the latest College Football Playoff and New Year's Six Bowl projections entering Week 5.
Here is who Erick Smith of USA TODAY Sports has making the playoff and the New Year's Six:
Rose: Michigan vs. Texas (CFP)
Sugar: Georgia vs. Florida State (CFP)
CFP Nat'l Title: Georgia vs. Michigan
Cotton: Oregon vs. Ohio State
Peach: Alabama vs. Fresno State
Orange: Duke vs. Penn State
Fiesta: Washington vs. Notre Dame
Here is who ESPN's Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach have in the playoff and the New Year's Six:
Kyle Bonagura
Rose: Michigan vs. Washington (CFP)
Sugar: Georgia vs. Texas (CFP)
CFP Nat'l Title: Georgia vs. Washington
Cotton: Oklahoma vs. Oregon
Peach: Alabama vs. Fresno State
Orange: Florida State vs. Ohio State
Fiesta: USC vs. Penn State
Mark Schlabach
Rose: Michigan vs. Washington (CFP)
Sugar: Georgia vs. Texas (CFP)
CFP Nat'l Title: Georgia vs. Michigan
Cotton: Notre Dame vs. Oregon
Peach: LSU vs. Penn State
Orange: Florida State vs. Ohio State
Fiesta: USC vs. Fresno State
Here is who Brett McMurphy of The Action Network has making the playoff and the New Year's Six:
Rose: Ohio State vs. Florida State (CFP)
Sugar: Georgia vs. Texas (CFP)
CFP Nat'l Title: Georgia vs. Florida State
Cotton: Alabama vs. USC
Peach: Washington vs. Michigan
Orange: North Carolina vs. Penn State
Fiesta: Oregon vs. Fresno State
And here is who Jerry Palm of CBS Sports has in the playoff and making the New Year's Six:
Rose: Michigan vs. Texas (CFP)
Sugar: Georgia vs. Florida State (CFP)
CFP Nat'l Title: Semifinal Winners...
Cotton: USC vs. LSU
Peach: Alabama vs. Penn State
Orange: North Carolina vs. Ohio State
Fiesta: Washington vs. Tulane
So there is a lot to digest here. While you are doing that, here are my CFP and NY6 projections...
Rose: Michigan vs. Florida State (CFP)
Sugar: Georgia vs. Texas (CFP)
CFP Nat'l Title: Georgia vs. Florida State
Cotton: Alabama vs. USC
Peach: LSU vs. Ohio State
Orange: North Carolina vs. Penn State
Fiesta: Washington vs. Fresno State
If there is one thing that is perfectly clear from these six playoff projections, it is that Georgia is getting the Sugar Bowl, winning in New Orleans and will be playing for a third straight national title. Shocking, I know, but we are too early on in the season for anyone to realistically take the throne from Kirby Smart's Dawgs. Michigan made the four-team field in all but Brett McMurphy's latest projection.
He had Ohio State in over the likes of Michigan and Penn State as the Big Ten champion, the only person to do so. Everybody also has Texas in the playoff with four siding with Florida State and ESPN's dynamic duo of Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach really liking Washington. Those are the only six schools to have at least one person putting their team into the final four-team field in Week 5.
If we are trying to connect the dots a bit, the Big Ten champion, the Big 12 champion and the SEC champion are all getting in. Everybody and their brother has Georgia winning the SEC and Texas winning the Big 12. All but McMurphy have Michigan winning the Big Ten. He prefers Ohio State. From there, it comes down to if you like ACC champion Florida State over Pac-12 champion Washington.
Overall, it is abundantly clear that no Power Five league is getting two teams in this year. The Big 12 is being carried by Texas. If the Longhorns stumble, that league may not get a team in. When it comes to the ACC, it is Florida State and everyone else. With the Pac-12, Washington feels like the team people are the most bullish on, although there seems to be an appreciation for the likes of Oregon and USC.
Ultimately, there might be more than 12 teams with a realistic shot of making the playoff currently, but only six teams are potentially strong enough for prognosticators to attach their names to as likely candidates to get in. Georgia and Texas feel like the safest bets, followed up closely by Michigan. As for the last spot, that may come down to who looks better down the stretch between FSU and U-Dub.
Thankfully, we still have two more months' worth of games to sift through before sorting this all out.
