EFL promotion and relegation explained: Permutations and odds for the Championship, League One and League Two
The race for promotion is entering the final straight across the EFL, with the Championship, League One and League Two campaigns set to conclude in early May.
And after automatic promotion is secured, and relegation confirmed, from there the play-offs will decide one final promotion spot from each league.
We already know Burnley are going up, so too Leyton Orient, but who else is in contention for promotion or relegation?
Here is’s rundown of the EFL permutations, from the Championship down to League Two…
Championship permutations
- Promoted: Burnley
- Relegated: N/A
How it works: First and second secure automatic promotion, third through to sixth reach the play-offs, and the bottom three are relegated
Automatic promotion
Burnley have secured an immediate return to the Premier League and could secure the Championship title this Saturday with victory at home to Queens Park Rangers.
Sheffield United, in FA Cup semi-final action against Manchester City on Saturday, are set to secure second thanks to a healthy seven-point advantage, and game in hand, over Luton Town in third.
Play-off spots
Luton Town have secured at least a play-off spot and Middlesbrough are all-but there too. The pair could still mathematically catch Sheffield United in second, although that is highly unlikely.
Championship promotion odds
Best odds as of 20 April
- Sheff Utd – 1-200
- Middlesbrough – 15-8
- Luton – 3-1
- West Brom – 8-1
- Coventry – 16-1
- Blackburn – 19-1
The battle below Luton and Boro is much tighter. Currently Millwall are fifth (65pts) and Blackburn sixth (64pts), narrowly above West Brom (63pts), Coventry (63pts), Sunderland (62pts), Norwich (62pts) and Preston (62pts). Both Blackburn and West Brom have a game in hand over their play-off rivals.
Watford and Swansea (both 59pts) could still sneak into the play-offs, but they would go some to outperform the clubs above them and overturn a five-point deficit to Blackburn.
Relegation battle
With three games remaining, Wigan are seven points and Blackpool six adrift of safety, meaning both could be relegated this weekend. Reading are 22 and occupy the final relegation spot, just one point behind QPR and Huddersfield, while Cardiff City and Rotherham United are still not safe.
League One permutations
- Promoted: N/A
- Relegated: Forest Green Rovers
How it works: First and second secure automatic promotion, third through to sixth reach the play-offs, and the bottom four are relegated
Automatic promotion
A fascinating four-way battle has just seven points separating first and fourth, but it is advantage Plymouth Argyle and Ipswich Town heading into the final few weeks.
Plymouth are first with 89 points, Ipswich are second with 88 points, and both teams have a game in hand – four matches remaining – over Sheffield Wednesday, who sit third with 87 points. Barnsley also have a game in hand over Wednesday and with 82 points they still harbour outside hopes of making one of the two automatic promotion spots.
Play-off spots
Both Wednesday and Barnsley are mathematically guaranteed a play-off spot already, and below them Peterborough United, Bolton and Derby are vying for the two final play-off places.
Bolton (72pts) have a game in hand over Peterborough (73pts) above them and Derby (72pts) below them. Wycombe Wanderers (68pts) and Portsmouth (65pts) are unlikely the trouble this trio but can still make the play-offs.
Relegation battle
Forest Green Rovers are a mighty 14 points adrift from safety and have been relegated down to League Two.
There is then just five points separating five clubs, with Port Vale in 18 hoping their 46 points is enough to avoid the scrap. Below Vale, MK Dons (43pts) and Oxford United (41pts) are currently outside the drop-zone, with Cambridge United (40pts), (38pts) and Accrington Stanley (38pts) on course to join Forest Green unless their fortunes change.
EFL final day and play-off dates
The final day of the regular season in League One is Sunday 7 May and a day later on Monday 8 May for the Championship and League Two.
The Championship play-off final is on Saturday 27 May (kick-off TBC), the League Two play-off final on Sunday 28 May (kick-off 1.30pm), and League One play-off final on Monday 29 May (kick-off 3pm) – all at Wembley.
The play-off semi-final dates are TBC, but typically conclude more than a week before the finals.
League Two
- Promoted: Leyton Orient
- Relegated: N/A
How it works: First, second and third secure automatic promotion, fourth through to seventh reach the play-offs, and the bottom two are relegated
Automatic promotion
Leyton Orient secured promotion in midweek despite losing at Gillingham. They have a seven-point lead at the top of League Two and also have a game in hand over second-placed Northampton, who along with Stevenage could be promoted this weekend if they win and Stockport, Carlisle and Bradford do not.
Play-off spots
Stockport, Carlisle and Bradford are set for play-off spots with Salford and Mansfield currently battling it out for the fourth and final place. However, with just three points separating Stockport in fourth and Mansfield down in eighth, the race could go to the wire. Barrow are mathematically in contention but unlikely to trouble those above them.
Relegation battle
The writing is on the wall for Rochdale, who are eight points off safety with three games remaining and could get relegated this weekend. Hartlepool are 23 and three points behind Crawley Town, realistically the only club they can catch with Harrogate Town a further three points ahead.
What about the National League?
The permutations for the National League can be read here, with the much-publicised battle between Wrexham and Notts County going the way of the Welsh side as it stands.
