ESPN predicts every 2023 Notre Dame game using their FPI predictor

The college football season is just a little over a month away and excited has been building for Notre Dame.

Notre Dame finally has a quarterback they can rely on in Sam Hartman and the history of second year coaches having success is high. Marcus Freeman took a few games to find his footing in 2022, especially considering it was his first go-around as a head coach.

Although preseason rankings don’t mean much in the long run, ESPN’s Football Power Index or FPI calculates the odds of a teams success. The model is favorable for the Irish so let’s break down each contest and how they believe it will turn out for Notre Dame during the 2023 season.

FPI says

The Irish should start the season 1-0, as ESPN has Notre Dame as the heavy favorites against Navy, 96.1% to 3.3%. It would be a massive upset if the Midshipmen won.

FPI says

If you thought Navy had bad odds, TSU says hold my beer. The Tigers have just 1% chance of defeating the Irish.

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The toughest game so far for the Irish isn’t really that difficult at all according to the FPI. They believe Notre Dame has a 71.6% chance of going on the road a defeating NC State.

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Another game where the Irish shouldn’t sweat much at all, as CMU has just a 2.6% chance of upsetting Notre Dame at home.

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The first contest where the Irish are not favored. If the FPI is correct, Notre Dame has just a 20.7% chance of defending their home turf.

FPI says

A favorable matchup for Notre Dame on the road. They give the Irish an 82.2% chance of defeating the Blue Devils.

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The second of a back-to-back should have the Irish returning to South Bend with another win. FPI has the Irish as favorites with a 78.8% chance of defeating the Cardinals.

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The second marquee game of the year for Notre Dame favors the Irish. FPI likes the Irish’s chances, at 59.1%, but they’re not much of a favorite.

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Back to being big favorites, the Irish should handle the Panthers very easily if the FPI is correct. They have an 85.4% chance of winning this game.

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This one might not go like it did in 2022. FPI likes the Tigers winning this contest, giving the Irish just a 36.8% chance go going on the road and beating Clemson.

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Notre Dame bounces back and gets back into the win column. They give the Irish a 88.9% chance of defeating Sam Hartman’s old team.

FPI says

Although the Irish finish the regular season on the road, they should return back to South Bend with a win. FPI gives the Irish an 88.6% chance of winning this game.

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Although there are just two games the Irish aren’t favored, the FPI doesn’t have them over the 10 win mark. ESPN’s metrics have Notre Dame finishing the season at 9.1 wins with 2.9 losses. Rounding to the nearest whole number and you get a 9-3 season in 2023 for Notre Dame according to the FPI.

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