Everton vs. Leicester City: Premier League odds, picks, prediction

We’ve got ourselves a classic relegation six-pointer under the lights in Leicester on Monday night.

Leicester City and Everton both enter this match in a relegation spot – Leicester is in 18th place with 29 points and Everton is in 19th with 28 – but the winner would hop out of the drop zone with four games left on its schedule.

A draw would send Leicester ahead of 17th-place Nottingham Forest on goal difference, but it would keep the Toffees in 19th.

And with two brutal matches (Brighton and Manchester City) to come for Everton, this is basically a must-win for a club that has only been relegated once (1951) in its 145-year history.

Everton vs. Leicester City prediction

3:00 p.m. ET, USA Network

After a strong bounce under new manager Sean Dyche, Everton have come off the boil lately.

The Toffees upset Arsenal in Dyche’s managerial debut to springboard them to a 3-3-3 (W-D-L) run in the Scotsman’s first nine matches in charge, but it’s been ugly since then.

Everton has not won a match since March 11 — 0-3-3 in its last six contests.

The progress the Toffees displayed in Dyche’s first few matches seems to have disappeared.

Everton has a -7 goal difference (5 GF, 12 GA) in its last six matches and its -5.9 expected goal differential suggests that there’s nothing funky going on.

It’s just been a bad run of form for this team.

The good news for the Toffees is Leicester City has also been in a rough patch for quite some time, too.

The Foxes are 3-2-8 with a -6 goal difference (16 GF, 22 GA) in their past 13 Premier League matches.

And while Leicester’s -1 xG differential in that span suggests they’ve played slightly better than their record, the Foxes have a pretty ugly statistical portfolio on the season.

Leicester ranks 17th in goals allowed, 15th in non-penalty xG conceded, 15th in big scoring chances allowed and 16th in shots against per 90 minutes.

A defense that leaky will put a lot of pressure on the attack to score enough to provide cover, but Leicester grades out as a mediocre attacking side so far this season.

One wrinkle in this match to consider, however, is that Leicester has played a more high-event style of football in Dean Smith’s three matches in charge.

Leicester is 1-1-1 under Smith, but they’ve created 6.7 expected goals in those matches. They’ve conceded plenty of scoring chances going the other way, but it does seem like Smith wants his side to go down swinging.

That style of play should open this match up and allow Everton some joy in the counterattack.

The Toffees are not built to progress the ball through their ranks, so an open game where they can nick a turnover and turn it quickly up the field should suit them. 

Everton’s form is tough to trust here, but the stylistic matchup should give the Toffees a chance to use their best asset under Dyche — a strong press-and-counter approach — which makes them a live underdog in a must-win spot.