Factory of Sadness' Top Cleveland Betting Picks for 7/19 (Guardians Sweep, Twins Fall, Cavs Future)
The Factory of Sadness team is back for another day of betting on Wednesday. The Guardians blew out the Pirates again yesterday, so you know we're backing them again today while they're hot. We've also got another baseball bet and a Cavaliers bet to consider as well.
Keep in mind that the Guardians have an early start time today at 12:35 p.m. ET, so make sure to lock your bets in before first pitch.
Here are Wednesday's best bets from each of our Factory of Sadness editors.
The Guardians dominated the Pirates for the second night in a row on Tuesday, blowing out the Bucs 10-1. Cleveland goes for the sweep this afternoon at PNC Park after outscoring Pittsburgh 21-1 in the first two games of the series.
The Guardians will try to even their record at .500 behind Aaron Civale, who’s sneakily been one of our best pitchers this year. He enters Wednesday’s matinee with a sparkling 2.65 ERA in 10 starts this year, including a 1.50 mark in July.
Our bats should be able to stay hot against the ancient Rich Hill, who’s still pitching at age 43. Hill’s age finally seems to be catching up to him this year, as he’s 7-9 with a 4.76 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP.
The Pirates have been an absolute trainwreck this month, going 2-12 with a -43 run differential. They’ve also lost five straight games by multiple runs, making Cleveland a good bet to cover the -1.5 runline today. Time to break out the brooms!
As we saw on Tuesday, a Guardians win is nice, but it loses some of its luster when the Minnesota Twins win as well. We’re fighting to close in on them for the AL Central lead, and it’s frustrating when things Cleveland can’t control (like a Minnesota win) hold us back. So naturally, fans will have a close eye on tonight’s Twins-Mariners game again.
And fortunately for Guardians fans, Luis Castillo will be on the mound for Seattle.Castillo is on pace for his second straight season with a sub-3.00 ERA, and his 1.03 WHIP is a personal best. He’s only 6-7 in 19 starts on the season, but you can’t fault the guy for not getting run support.
The Twins are starting Kenta Maeda, who continues to prove that his stellar 2021 campaign was a fluke. After posting a career-worst 4.66 ERA for Minnesota last year, that mark has ballooned to a brutal 5.50 in 2023. Mariners bats have been about average against righties this year (100 wRC+, tied for 15th in the majors), and even average should be enough to get to Maeda.
With a low projected total (7.5 runs) I’m not expecting a total blowout in this game, but I do like Seattle to win without much issue.
All this James Harden trade talk has me liking the Cavs’ chances of winning their group during the NBA In-Season Tournament even more. Cleveland got one of the easiest groups in the league with the rebuilding Indiana Pacers and Detroit Pistons along with the directionless Atlanta Hawks not looking like major threats.
That just leaves the Philadelphia 76ers as the Cavaliers’ biggest competition, but they’re on the verge of losing their second-most important player in Harden. Seeing the NBA’s assist leader from this past season, who’s also a consistent 20-point scorer, will certainly hurt the Sixers’ offense.
Making a potential departure even more difficult is the fact Harden wants to go to one team – the Los Angeles Clippers – and said team is lacking in the asset department. Philly could be looking at a return package headlined by Marcus Morris or Norman Powell, neither of whom are world-beaters.
Philadelphia and Cleveland were separated by just three games in the standings this past season. While the 76ers are on the verge of getting worse, the Cavs made several key additions to fill holes on their roster. That’s why I’m targeting the Cavaliers to win Group A at +220 on DraftKings Sportsbook right now before a Harden deal possibly makes Cleveland the new favorite.
The best part of making this bet on DraftKings is that they have one of the few new user promos that unlocks instantly when you make your first bet. If you sign up for DraftKings through Factory of Sadness' link you'll automatically receive their top new-user promo: $150 in bonus bets guaranteed after you place your first $5 wager (whether it wins or loses!). Some books make you wait for that first bet to settle, so you don't really want to place a bet on a future pick like this. But on DraftKings your $150 bonus will be unlocked immediately once you bet $5 on the Cavs. This offer won't be around for long though, so claim it now!
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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