Mariners vs Twins Prediction, Picks, Odds

Aside from a blow-up outing against the Yankees, Minnesota's Kenta Maeda has been extremely solid this season and now gets a favorable matchup against a strikeout-prone Mariners lineup. See where the value lies in our MLB betting picks below.

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The first installment of this three-game series gets underway Monday with the AL Central’s Minnesota Twins hosting the AL West’s Seattle Mariners.

These two clubs just completed a three-game set last week, with Minnesota claiming two of the three outings.

Will the Twins take care of business once again, or can the Mariners exact their revenge on the road?

Find out in our MLB picks and predictions for Mariners vs. Twins below.

Mariners vs Twins odds

Mariners vs Twins predictions

Right-hander Kenta Maeda is slated to take the mound for the Minnesota Twins, and he should be a good candidate to back. Through nine starts this season, Maeda is 2-5 with a 5.10 ERA and 1.25 WHIP.

Yes, those surface-level stats are poor, to say the least, but they're misleading. Maeda’s stats are heavily weighted down from one specific poor outing against the Yankees, a game in which he surrendered 10 runs on 11 hits through three innings.

In his five starts since that performance, the right-hander is 2-1 with a 2.73 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. Maeda recorded six or more strikeouts in four of those five outings.

His underlying metrics suggest that even more strong performances are in store for the right-hander, at least in the strikeout department. Currently, Maeda ranks in the 76th percentile or higher in strikeout rate, Whiff%, and chase rate.

Currently, you can find his strikeout prop at 5.5 at FanDuel. It's been an underwhelming season for the Seattle Mariners, who enter this matchup 50-49 while sitting fourth in the AL West. 

The hitting is to blame for the Mariners, who rank in the bottom third of the league in hits per game, BA, SLG, and OPS. Perhaps their biggest weakness is the punchout, ranking second-to-last in MLB in K% when facing right-handed pitching.

These strikeout woes are likely to continue against Maeda. Through 53 career plate appearances against the right-hander, this current Seattle lineup possesses a troubling 41.5 K% and 33.3 whiff%.

In two career starts against the Mariners, Maeda boasts a 2.61 ERA and 0.89 WHIP. He recorded seven or more strikeouts in each of those two games.

My best bet: Kenta Maeda Over 5.5 strikeouts (-122)

Mariners vs Twins same-game parlay

Kenta Maeda Over 5.5 strikeouts (-122)

Under 8 (-105)

Twins ML (+102)

This same-game parlay builds upon each other. We already covered the first leg in the best bet section above, but let's look at the other two.

Right-hander Luis Castillo is slated to take the mound for the Mariners and should also be a solid candidate to back. Through 20 starts, he's 6-7 with a 3.04 ERA and 1.05 WHIP.

Meanwhile, Minnesota’s hitting is comparable to Seattle’s across the board. With a solid pitching matchup and two similar lineups in terms of talent, the Under is the play to make while the Twins are worth backing simply due to the plus-money price in a coin-flip matchup.

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Mariners vs Twins moneyline and Over/Under analysis

Seattle opened as a -126 favorite and was quickly bet down to -120. This line movement makes sense, considering Maeda is a much stronger pitcher than his surface-level stats portray while both teams are even in terms of hitting.

With that said, neither lineup is anything special. That brings us to the total, which opened at 7.5 and has since moved to a flat 8.

This movement is surprising, but given that a 7.5-run total is typically reserved for a matchup between two star pitchers, it's justifiable.

I'd keep an eye on this number and would heavily consider playing the Under if it moves up another half-run to 8.5.

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Trend to know

Maeda has recorded 6+ strikeouts in four of his past five starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Mariners vs. Twins

Mariners vs Twins game info

Starting pitchers

Luis Castillo (6-7, 3.04 ERA): A big trade deadline acquisition during last year’s playoff push, Castillo continues to prove his worth to Seattle. Coming off an All-Star game nod, the right-hander is 1-1 with a 3.00 ERA and 0.94 WHIP over his past three starts. Over his past two starts against Minnesota, Castillo is 1-0 with a 3.00 ERA and 1.25 WHIP.

Kenta Maeda (2-5, 5.10 ERA): Maeda’s stats are very misleading, given that they're heavily weighed down by one poor outing against the Yankees. In that game, he surrendered 10 runs on 11 hits through just three innings pitched. However, he's rebounded nicely, going 2-1 with a 2.73 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in his five starts since then.