Gun Runner fair odds: Kentucky shippers have edge

Of the eight entrants in the Gun Runner Stakes on Saturday at Fair Grounds, only no. 3 Risk It has earned points on the road to Kentucky Derby 2024. 

Risk It is Gun Runner through and through: His owners are Gun Runner's owners, Winchell Thoroughbreds and Three Chimneys; trainer Steve Asmussen also trained Gun Runner, and, oh yeah, his sire is Gun Runner himself. Risk It ranks ninth on the Kentucky Derby leaderboard with seven points.

Whether the legacy of his connections and/or being the only name on the Derby leaderboard means Risk It will take more money than he should is an important question. He's 5-1 on the morning line and an almost certain underlay given fair odds of 16-1, so any money he does take is a takeout reducer.

Enough about who's unlikely to win, though. Who can win? Well, no. 6 Nash is certainly the most likely winner, but the value is unlikely to be there. He is 7-5 on the morning line but 9-5 on my fair odds. That's impossible to get excited about even though he's an exciting prospect by virtue of his 10-length, gate-to-wire score last out in a Churchill Downs maiden race.

No. 7 Snead is one of only two in here with a win at Fair Grounds, but he did it in a classier race than Nash and in his first start on fast dirt. Snead also happens to be a closer in a field with plenty of pace. As the fifth choice on the morning line but second choice on my fair-odds line, he is the one I'm most excited about.

No. 8 Track Phantom and no. 2 Catching Freedom would be on my second tier. The former will have plenty of company up front. The latter is intriguing as another late-running alternative, and it's worth noting he was a a 6-5 favorite against eight others on debut and then bet down to even money next out.