Falls City fair odds: Streaking Xigera is an imposing presence

One could look at Xigera's two-race win streak and surmise that she is a better horse on dirt than turf, but that would be selling the Nyquist filly short.

Yes, her performance figures are better since returning to dirt and subsequently winning a pair of stakes. But she was a stakes winner on turf and figured to improve after a brief freshening that followed a disappointing performance on soft turf at Saratoga.

All that is to say, maybe it's not the dirt that makes Xigera special. Maybe Xigera is special. She is 3-5 on the morning line for the Grade 3, $400,000 Falls City Stakes on Thanksgiving at Churchill Downs, and she would actually offer value at that price based on my fair odds of 1-2.

Yes, as incredible as it is to write, I think Xigera wins this race two of three times. Unfortunately, there is a good chance she will be 1- or 2-5 in this spot, and even if she is on the board going to the gate at 4- or 3-5, can you really trust that she will be that price at the off?

I can't, which makes the 1-2 fair odds purely academic. I do see her as a stone-cold single in any multi-race wagers, but using her in that regard would require going against favorites around her.

For those looking to spice the vertical exactas, no. 3 Shezz Koldazice makes her second start off a $62,500 claim for trainer Mike Maker, who is 21 percent in those situations. Jockey Luis Saez retains the mount after getting acquainted last out at Keeneland. A win would surprise, but she can save ground and stick around for a slice at the end.

Bellamore is the second-most likely winner, but that makes her a danger of being underlaid as the obvious alternative to Xigera. But if for some reason they bet others and she is not the second choice, then she is the play beneath the favorite.