Fantasy Baseball Picks Today: Top DraftKings MLB DFS Targets, Values for September 20
Welcome to tonight’s teeny tiny four-game slate — and there might as well be an asterisk next to the number four, because we’re looking at a really rainy day in St. Louis.
Keeping that in mind, let’s break down some studs and values on the diamond for this evening’s action.
Set your DraftKingsfantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $100K Relay Throw [$25K to 1st] (Night)
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PITCHER
Stud
Mitch Keller, Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs, $8,800 - The safer play at the top is Kevin Gausman ($11,200), who has the highest upside of any pitcher on the slate, yet I find myself drawn to a discounted Keller. July was a difficult month for the RHP, but it seems like Keller’s recently re-found the form that made him an All-Star earlier in 2023 — aside from a clunker in Atlanta, of course. Since August 13, across 39.0 innings, Keller has managed a 2.77 ERA and a 2.85 FIP to go along with a 27.3% strikeout rate. That’s translated into the 27-year-old earning over 30.0 DKFP in three of his last five trips to the mound.
Value
Mike King, New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays, $5,900 - Toronto’s bats finally broke out in a big way on Tuesday, crushing three home runs in a 7-1 win against New York. Still, over the past two weeks, the Blue Jays are hitting just .208 with a 77 wRC+. On top of that, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ($4,900) left last night’s game in the ninth inning, which is obviously something to keep an eye on. King’s viability isn’t all matchup-based, though. He’s been quite good since transitioning to the rotation, posting a 1.59 FIP and a 33.7% strikeout rate in his six starts in 2023. He also threw 87 pitches in his last outing, so he’s fully built up.
INFIELD
Stud
Freddie Freeman, Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Detroit Tigers, $6,100 - While Reese Olson ($7,500) is having a very nice month of September, Freeman is currently a viable DFS play against literally any pitcher on the planet. Heck, as if sitting top-five in baseball with a .409 expected wOBA and 164 wRC+ wasn’t enough, Freeman also swiped his 20th bag of the season on Monday, making him one of only 14 members of the 20/20 club in 2023. Add in a Tigers bullpen that owns an inflated 4.82 ERA over the last 30 days, and it’s no wonder why Freeman is so expensive.
Stud
William Contreras, Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals, $5,100 - The Brewers get to face the left-handed Zack Thompson ($6,200) on Wednesday, which is great news for Contreras. In the backstop’s 159 plate appearances against LHPs in 2023, Contreras is slashing .353/.430/.662 with a 191 wRC+. Honestly, Contreras has been punishing every pitcher he’s seen, regardless of handedness, since the All-Star break, posting an .870 OPS and a 135 wRC+ since the Midsummer Classic. The man is simply locked in at the dish.
Value
Liover Peguero, Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs, $3,500 - There’s a few things that make Peguero an amazing asset on tonight’s slate. First and foremost: His price. However, aside from the obvious, Peguero has multi-position eligibility and the last time the Pirates faced a left-handed opponent, it was the rookie who was listed in the team’s leadoff spot. Why? Well, in 59 career plate appearances within the split at the MLB level, Peguero is hitting .345 with a 131 wRC+. Justin Steele ($9,900) isn’t your average lefty, but he also surrendered six earned runs in his last start. He’s not perfect.
OUTFIELD
Stud
J.D. Martinez, Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Detroit Tigers, $5,000 - The Dodgers are the lone team on this small slate with an implied total of at least five runs, so I’m not exactly reinventing the wheel when I tell you to stack them. I’m also not shocking the world when I point out it’s a good idea to roster an asset that’s hit three home runs in the past two days. But I’m a simple man. Martinez is red-hot at the moment, registering a 1.191 OPS in his last 38 at-bats. Get him into a couple lineups.
Value
Mark Canha, Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals, $3,400 - Canha appears to be locked into the Brewers’ leadoff spot against left-handed opponents and it’s easy to see why. Canha’s always had good numbers within the split, yet in his 36 plate appearances versus southpaws since being traded to Milwaukee, the veteran outfielder is hitting .394 with a 216 wRC+. It’s obviously a small sample, but that matches Canha’s small price tag.
Value
Richie Palacios, St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers, $2,500 - Palacios has come out of nowhere to be one of the hottest hitters in all of baseball. Since joining the Cardinals back on August 17, the rookie has registered a .304 ISO and a 138 wRC+ in his 61 plate appearances. That’s been enough for the young LHB to hit either fifth or sixth in St. Louis’ lineup for the past week — right behind Nolan Arenado ($4,800). Adrian Houser ($6,800) has had his issue with left-handed bats in the past and owns a 5.52 ERA since the All-Star break, so this is a great spot for Palacios to continue his success.
Set your DraftKingsfantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $100K Relay Throw [$25K to 1st] (Night)
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and customer (my username is theglt13) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
