FCS Week 3 Predictions: Holy Cross-Yale, SIU-SEMO, WCU-EKU + More

Week 3 of the 2023 FCS season features a few matchups of playoff hopefuls and some good non-conference rivalry games.

Let’s predict some scores.

Predictions Record:2023 Record: 13-4

2019-2022 Record: 337-158

No. 6 Holy Cross at Yale

Holy Cross will need to put last week’s emotional loss at FBS Boston College in the rearview mirror. And it’ll need to get healthy after a physical battle in the trenches. Yale is the preseason favorite in the Ivy League, returning 14 All-Conference players. Yale will try to establish the run behind the FCS’ top NFL Draft prospect Kiran Amegadjie on the o-line. But Holy Cross is stout against the run. LB Jacob Dobbs already has 34 tackles in two games.

Yale is fresh, playing its first game of 2023. But Holy Cross has the advantage of two games to work through its execution and identify areas it needs to improve on.

Prediction: Holy Cross 35-21

Central Arkansas at No. 2 North Dakota State

UCA has a lot of individual talent. In fact, the Bears had the second most players mentioned in my Top 25 returning FCS players by position: No. 12 RB Darius Hale, No. 5 RB ShunDerrick Powell, No. 20 WR Jarrod Barnes, No. 17 DL Logan Jessup, No. 1 DL David Walker, No. 20 safety Cameron Godfrey, and No. 3 safety Tamuarion Wilson.

This will be the best non-conference gauge for NDSU. While Montana State-SDSU stole the headlines last week, along with Idaho beating up on FBS Nevada, the Bison have almost quietly looked like a much better team than the 2022 squad, offensively and defensively. We’ll see for sure on Saturday.

The difference in this ball game will be the trenches. NDSU’s OL gets the necessary push in the second half to pull away in a ball-control half. The Bison DTs will be key in slowing down one of the better RB stables in the FCS.

Prediction: NDSU 35-24

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No. 19 Southeastern Louisiana at Eastern Washington

Two 0-2 squads, but two respectable squads. SLU has two FBS losses at Mississippi State and South Alabama. EWU lost to NDSU in Week 1 and nearly beat a good FBS team in Fresno State last week, losing in double overtime.

I flipped my pick from earlier this week. I liked the Lions as a Top 25 squad and a playoff-fringe team. But my gut says EWU gets the win.

The Eagles showed something last week. Kekoa Visperas has strong potential at QB, and he and his targets can take advantage of a secondary that has four new starters. Home field is the difference here in what may be a shootout. Two straight FBS opponents and a third straight week of travel will make it tough for SLU to go shot-for-shot with EWU.

Prediction: EWU 45-42

No. 7 Furman at Kennesaw State

Kennesaw is an FCS independent this year, transitioning to the FBS. It is joining CUSA next season and is ineligible for the 2023 playoffs due to going over the 63 scholarship limit as part of the transition.

Kennesaw is also transitioning to a different-looking offense, getting further away from the option due to the new NCAA blocking rules. Last week, Kennesaw lost 27-20 to Chattanooga, a team that quickly fell off of Top 25 radars the week before after losing to North Alabama.

KSU isn’t a strong FCS-ish team, but they aren’t terrible. So it’s a good gauge for a Furman squad with huge expectations. The Paladins crushed Tennessee Tech 45-10 like they should. And they competed solidly against South Carolina, losing 47-21. A road trip to Kennesaw is a good measuring stick. Furman should win somewhat comfortably if it’s as good as advertised. I expect a sharp performance, especially offensively.

Prediction: Furman 38-21

Western Carolina at Eastern Kentucky

WCU still has doubters (not me) even after crushing a Top 10-ranked Samford team 30-7 last week. Somehow, people still aren’t ranking them (not me).

The Catamounts will be tested in a big way this weekend, either proving more that they should be ranked or giving voters a reason to keep them out. EKU is good and is also receiving votes. Parker McKinney is a top-tier QB in the FCS.

But with how WCU is rolling, I’ll take the Catamounts on the road. Cole Gonzales appears to be their guy at QB after going 29/35 for 262 yards and two TDs vs. Samford. And Desmond Reid is a stud at RB, rushing for 170 yards. More impressively, WCU held a Samford offense led by preseason All-American QB Michael Hiers to only seven points.

EKU played Kentucky tough last week in a 28-17 loss. But EKU is also a challenge to gauge with its 0-2 record vs. two FBS opponents. This has a chance to be a shootout, but I’ll go somewhat of a lower-scoring game as WCU gets a close win.

Prediction: WCU 31-28

No. 15 Southern Illinois at No. 13 SEMO

A top FCS matchup of the week as two Top 15 teams and non-conference rivals go head-to-head.

Two weeks ago, I would have gone with SEMO. But I’ll lean SIU as I type this. SEMO standout LB Bryce Norman is battling through injuries and is questionable to play. And last year’s top WR Ryan Flournoy is expected to miss a handful of weeks with a broken wrist. SEMO still has dudes, including stud DB Lawrence Johnson, a good QB in Paxton DeLaurent, and elite RB Geno Hess.

But SIU is one of the highest-rising FCS teams, starting out 2-0 after smacking Austin Peay (who was receiving votes) 49-23 and beating FBS NIU 14-11. Now, the Salukis beat the Big Ten’s Northwestern last year, a week after losing 34-31 vs. SEMO and two weeks after losing 64-29 at UIW. So we’ll see if they have more consistency this season. A stout and reliable defense helps that consistency, and the No. 4 FCS rushing defense (51.0 yards allowed per game) is the biggest factor in this matchup.

Prediction: SIU 24-21

No. 10 UIW at Abilene Christian

ACU was an under-the-radar team for me this preseason. The Wildcats return six All-WAC players and added 14 FBS transfers after going from 5-6 in 2021 to 7-4 last year. Maverick McIvor has taken another step at QB, throwing for 533 yards, five TDs, and zero interceptions in two games.

This is a great test for UIW. A shaky offense in a 28-14 Week 1 loss at FBS UTEP looked to have turned a corner last week, beating up on a bad Northern Colorado team 42-7. It’s going to need another smooth showing to win at ACU. Watch for DE Steven Parker to make an impact too in slowing down ACU’s passing attack. In two games, he already has five TFLs and 2.5 sacks.

Prediction: UIW 38-31

Southern Utah at No. 16 UC Davis

SUU should be a solid team this year. I like QB Justin Miller. And the defense overall has looked good despite its 0-2 start. Another 0-2 team with two FBS losses, but the Thunderbirds showed something in their 24-21 loss at Arizona State in Week 1.

SUU went 5-6 last year, and four losses were by one possession.

UC Davis looks built to make the playoffs. A 55-7 loss at Oregon State last week was ugly, but OSU is a ranked FBS team. UC Davis took it to Texas A&M-Commerce in Week 1, winning 48-10. The Aggies are good in the trenches, and they have good athletes on offense. They can do creative things with guys like Lan Larison and Trent Tompkins. It will be too much firepower, and UC Davis scores late to make it a two-possession win.

Prediction: UC Davis 38-28

Dartmouth at No. 11 New Hampshire

Another fun non-conference rivalry that dates back to 1901. UNH has to emotionally and physically get over its shootout loss at FBS Central Michigan, losing 45-42. Not many defenses will have an answer for RB Dylan Laube, who last week had seven carries for 30 yards and a TD, 12 catches for 295 yards and two TDs, one kick return for 28 yards, and one punt return for 18 yards.

Dartmouth will be playing for Buddy Teevens this year, who won’t be on the sidelines as he recovers from a serious bicycle accident that occurred in March. Sammy McCorkle is serving as the interim HC. The Big Green, typically a top Ivy League team, is already facing adversity after taking a step back last year with a 3-7 record. It’s going to be a challenging day Saturday for the defense. UNH gets the home win in its first game of the season at Wildcat Stadium.