FCS Week 2 Predictions: Montana State-SDSU, Samford-WCU, Weber State-UNI + More

Week 2 of the 2023 FCS season offers a better slate than the opening weekend, featuring several great FCS vs. FCS matchups.

Let’s predict some scores.

Predictions Record:2023 Record: 7-2

2019-2022 Record: 337-158

No. 8 Samford at Western Carolina

WCU may be feeling the wear and tear of playing a P5 opponent, losing 56-13 at Arkansas last week. Samford, meanwhile, cakewalked its way to a 69-14 win over D2 Shorter.

This is a good test for Samford, who is expected to be a Top 2 team in the SoCon and in the hunt for a playoff seed. WCU has been a competitive team in the league, and it looks to break into that Top 4 this fall. There will be plenty of points scored here, but it’ll be hard to go shot-for-shot with Michael Hiers, Chandler Smith, and Co.

Prediction: Samford 42-31

Northern Arizona at No. 17 North Dakota

NAU landed the second most D1 transfers this offseason for an FCS program, bringing in 28 (18 FBS, 10 FCS). Things didn’t go well in Week 1, losing 38-3 at P5 Arizona. Playing an FCS opponent is a better gauge, but it heads to one of the tougher places to get a win.

The Fighting Hawks have gone 4-1, 4-1, 4-0, and 6-0 at the Alerus Center in the last four seasons. UND has high expectations this fall, led by a dynamic offense. That was on display in a 55-7 win last week over Drake. Tommy Schuster went 22/26 for 262 yards and three TDs.

UND wins more comfortably than last year’s 27-24 win at NAU.

Prediction: UND 35-17

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No. 12 Weber State at No. 21 Northern Iowa

A terrific matchup between two playoff hopefuls.

UNI needs to regroup after a disappointing 30-9 loss at Iowa State. While a P5 loss isn’t necessarily something to ring huge alarms about, UNI was only a 7-point underdog. And preseason All-American QB Theo Day struggled, going 16/24 for 164 yards, one TD, and two interceptions. He wasn’t helped by a new-look offensive line that allowed five sacks and five QB hurries.

Weber had a close game for a half before pulling away and beating D2 Central Washington 35-10. RB Damon Bankston looks ready for a huge season. We’ll need to see more from the passing game, though, as new starting QB Kylan Weisser went 12/21 for 116 yards and a touchdown.

It should be a tight battle. Weber has the talent in the secondary to defend UNI’s passing attack. But at the risk of falling to 0-2 and this one being at home, UNI pulls out the win.

Prediction: UNI 31-28

Elon at Gardner-Webb

Like it did a few times last season, Gardner-Webb pushed an FBS opponent in Week 1, losing 45-24 at App State after leading 24-21 in the third quarter. The Runnin’ Bulldogs look to return to the playoffs as they return 17 starters on offense and defense. The big question mark was QB, and Matthew Caldwell answered some questions after going 30/46 for 221 yards, a TD, and two picks at App State.

Elon has fallen out of Top 25s after making the postseason last fall. Elon lost 37-17 last week to P5 Wake Forest, once trailing 27-0. Elon also has a question mark at QB. Justin Allen went 18/29 for 130 yards and two interceptions.

Last year saw a 30-24 Elon home win over Gardner-Webb. The Runnin’ Bulldogs flip the script Saturday.

Prediction: Gardner-Webb 31-28

No. 18 NC Central at North Carolina A&T

NC Central will be the favorite in this rivalry matchup. But a great home atmosphere by NC A&T could even the scales some. NC Central looks like the top HBCU team this fall, returning 12 of 17 All-MEAC performers from last year’s Celebration Bowl-winning squad, including the MEAC Offensive and Defensive Players of the Year (QB Davius Richard, DB Khalil Baker).

NC A&T struggled to get its offense going last week, losing 35-6 at FBS UAB. It won’t be easy keeping up with a Richard-led offense. This will be a closer game than expected, though, but the Eagles make the necessary plays to win the fourth quarter.

Prediction: NC Central 35-28

North Alabama at Tarleton State

How about North Alabama? After playing ranked Mercer tough in Week 0, the Lions took it to Chattanooga last week, winning 41-27. UTC was expected to be a top-half SoCon team. The Lions finished 1-10 last season, then hired FAU OC Brent Dearmon to be their next head coach. North Alabama brought in 10 FBS transfers this offseason, and it’s already competing much better.

Tarleton looks to be tough to slow down, though. The Texans have big expectations as a football program and are investing in impressive ways. They looked good last week, pulling away from McNeese in the second half for a 52-34 win.

Tarleton has great weapons, led by talented WRs Darius Cooper and Jaden Smith, 1,000-yard rusher Derrel Kelley III, and All-American transfer RB Kayvon Britten from Arkansas-Pine Bluff. Utah Tech transfer QB Victor Gabalis looked good in his debut, going 20/34 for 344 yards, three TDs, and two interceptions.

Prediction: Tarleton 38-27

No. 3 Montana State at No. 1 South Dakota State

The implications are large in the best non-conference game of the season. I went more in-depth about that here.

I expect a closer game than last year’s 39-18 SDSU win in the semifinals. MSU continues to make strides to be a legit FCS title contender. Last fall was a year ahead of schedule, making for a highly-anticipated 2023 season. And with every OL and DL starter back, the Bobcats look to hold up better in the trenches with the likes of SDSU.

The problem, though, is that SDSU is also going to be one year better than its national championship team.

MSU’s front seven will be stronger than last year. But SDSU’s o-line and running game will be too. MSU’s rushing attack will be even better, led by QBs Tommy Mellott and Sean Chambers. But SDSU’s linebackers will be too, and its d-line will be just as strong.

MSU’s bigger question defensively is its secondary. Not bad, but not great. That’s an area SDSU could exploit on Saturday. Word is Mark Gronowski made even bigger strides as a passer this offseason. And with his favorite WR targets back in Jaxon and Jadon Janke, plus true freshman Griffin Wilde looking like the next big-time WR, the Jacks will have too much balance to slow down.

SDSU’s defense is stout enough (No. 1 FCS rushing defense in 2022) and flies to the football fast enough to slow down MSU’s rushing attack. And on offense, the Jacks have three different players (Gronowski, Isaiah Davis, Amar Johnson) who could go over 100 yards rushing in any game, and four pass-catchers (Janke, Janke, Wilde, Zach Heins) who could go over 100 yards receiving in any game. Couple that with the best o-line in the FCS with two NFL Draft prospects on the left side (Garret Greenfield, Mason McCormick), the Jacks will be tough to beat this fall.

Prediction: SDSU 38-28

Lindenwood at No. 14 SEMO

Lindenwood had a promising first season in the FCS last year, going 7-3 overall and 4-3 vs. FCS opponents. It beat a pretty good Central Arkansas team 52-49, and competed well against SEMO, trailing 21-14 in the third quarter before losing 49-28.

The Lions look to continue building into a contender during its D1 transition. But SEMO is just on a different level.

SEMO’s offense returns six offensive starters and nine of the 11 top tacklers on defense. The offense has some firepower behind the arm of Paxton DeLaurent, standout WR Ryan Flournoy, and All-American RB Geno Hess. It’ll be a good reset for the squad after a humbling 45-0 loss at P5 Kansas State.