AJ Dobson vs Tafon Nchukwi Pick, 8/12/2023 Predictions UFC Vegas 78 Odds

Saturday, August 12, 2023

AJ Dobson will face off against Tafon Nchukwi at UFC Vegas 78 on Saturday, August 12, 2023. The odds have Dobson at +120 while Nchukwi is coming in at -140.

AJ Dobson looks to add a win to his career total of 6-2-0 (1 NC). The 31-year-old tips the scales at 185 lbs and stands 6'1". The orthodox fighter reaches 76". Tafon "Da Don" Nchukwi comes in at 6'0" and is weighing in at 185 lbs. The orthodox fighter steps into the cage with a record of 6-3-0. The 28-year-old stretches 77". With respect to significant strikes, AJ Dobson is connecting on 4.34 per minute while Tafon Nchukwi connects on 6.05 significant strikes per min. Dobson is landing 46% of the significant strikes he throws and Nchukwi lands 52%. Concerning their defense in the cage, Dobson allows 6.00 significant strikes per min and "Da Don" allows 4.03. Dobson also curbs 47% of the significant strikes his opponents throw at him and Nchukwi is able to defend against 55% of the shots thrown his way.

Concerning wrestling, AJ Dobson is the more skilled wrestler as he takes his opponents to the canvas 1.75 times per 15 min. Dobson is getting his opponent to the mat on 80% of his attempts and is defending 64% of takedowns his opponents have tried. Nchukwi is taking his opponents to the mat on 57% of the takedowns he attempts and thwarting 71% of the tries against him. When it comes to subbing the opposition, Dobson is the less likely of the two fighters to go for the finish by going for 0.4 submissions per 3 rounds while Nchukwi attempts 0.6 submissions per 15 min.

The last time he fought, AJ Dobson went up against Armen Petrosyan and ended up taking the loss by unanimous decision in round 3. Petrosyan ended up landing 118 of 246 total strikes that he threw in that contest. Dobson walked away from this fight having landed 64 of 168 total strikes. In regard to significant strikes, Petrosyan landed 118 of 246, which gave him a rate of 47%. He landed 31 of 151 significant strikes directed at the head. On the other side of the Octagon, Dobson landed 36% of his significant strikes by connecting on 58 of 161. Looking at the significant strike accuracy, he was 38 of 136 pointed at the head. 89% of the significant strikes landed by Petrosyan and 86% of them landed by Dobson were thrown at a distance.

In the last fight for Tafon Nchukwi, he faced off with Carlos Ulberg and wound up losing the fight by way of a punch to the head in round 1. Ulberg connected on 80% of his significant strikes at distance and Nchukwi landed 100% of the significant strikes he attempted at distance. Nchukwi ended up landing 75% of the significant strikes he attempted by connecting on 3 of 4. He ended up connecting on 0 of 0 significant strikes to the head. Ulberg ended up connecting on 15 of 19 significant strikes in that fight. In regard to the placement of these significant strikes, he landed 9 of 13 aimed at the head. In terms of total strikes that he let go in that contest, Ulberg ended up landing 15 of 19 while Nchukwi landed 3 of 4 total strikes.

Other fights on the card to keep an eye on

An additional bout that shouldn't be missed is when Josh Fremd takes on Jamie Pickett. Fremd has a career mark of 10-4-0. The 29-year-old tips the scales at 185 lbs and comes in at 6'4". The orthodox fighter stretches 76". Pickett measures 6'2" and weighs 185 lbs. The orthodox fighter has a mark of 13-9-0. The 34-year-old reaches 80". In terms of takedowns, Josh Fremd is averaging a takedown 1.56 times per 3 rds while Jamie Pickett gets a takedown 1.34 times per 15 min. When it comes to striking, Fremd connects for an average of 3.05 strikes per minute and is landing 52% of the strikes that he throws. On the other side of the cage you've got Jamie Pickett, who connects on 50% of the strikes he attempts and lands 3.16 per min.

One more can't miss bout is when Marcus McGhee is set to face off with JP Buys. Buys will be looking to add a victory to his career record of 9-5-0. The 27-year-old weighs 135 lbs and measures in at 5'5". The orthodox fighter has a wingspan of 67". McGhee stands in at 5'8" and steps on the scale at 135 lbs. The orthodox fighter will be looking to add a victory to his record of 7-1-0. The 33-year-old stretches 69". When it comes to takedowns, JP Buys deflects 25% of the takedowns fighters have attempted and is getting his opponent to the mat on 26% of his tries. McGhee is taking his opponents to the mat on 10% of the tries he takes and stops 90% of all takedown tries against him. With regard to striking, Buys is absorbing 3.02 strikes/minute and he is dishing out 1.89 per minute. McGhee, at the same time, absorbs 1.84 strikes per minute and deals 3.55 per minute.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Tony's Pick: Take Tafon Nchukwi (-140)

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