How to bet £20 ante-post on the Paddy Power Gold Cup
Andy Stephens identified last year's Paddy Power Gold Cup winner, Ga Law, about this time last year and seeks to repeat the dose.
There are rarely any hiding places in the £160,000 Paddy Power Gold Cup and it is surely no coincidence that the past seven winners have all had the benefit of a run or two earlier in the season.
The last horse to win the extended 2m 4f handicap chase on his seasonal reappearance was Anacotty in 2015, and he was a little unusual in that he was having his first start for a new yard. You can reasonably argue that he was fortunate to take the spoils, too, because the half-length runner-up, Buywise, would have won had he not tried to take several of the Cheltenham fences with him.
Buywise had previously finished third in the Old Roan Chase at Aintree the previous month, just like the past two winners of the Paddy Power in Midnight Shadow and Ga Law. Al Dancer was third in last month’s renewal and may try and keep the sequence going, although he seemed suited by all the fences up the straight being omitted and has previously twice come up short in the Cheltenham feature. The 16/1 chance is not on my shortlist, for all that the portents are good.
Fourteen of the 33 entries left in Saturday week's feature lack a recent run with that group including two of last season’s top novices in The Real Whacker, who won the Brown Advisory at the Festival in March, and Stage Star, who landed the Turners 24 hours later.
The former, quoted at 14/1, is going to have to put up one of the best performances seen in the race, at least in recent years, if he’s to defy 12st and a rating of 162 dropping in trip, while the latter, the general 5/1 ante-post favourite, faces no easy task confirming his superiority over Notlongtillmay, who chased him home in the Turners, and Unexpected Party, who was fifth, at the revised weights. In addition, that pair have already been in action this campaign and so could have the edge in fitness.
Unexpected Party is clearly interesting as was ridden to pick up some pieces in the Turners, having failed to make the cut for the Grand Annual. He was sent off at 100/1 but ended up being beaten only about eight lengths. He gets a 9lb pull with Stage Star, plus showed his wellbeing at Chepstow last month when upstaging the 153-rated Knappers Hill (another Nicholls inmate) on level terms. Off 146, you could reasonably argue he’s the pick of the weights and I’ll be having a saver on him at 10/1 at bet365, for all that none of those past seven winners previously mentioned had won their previous start.
The one who makes most appeal at this stage is ANGELS BREATH, who looks worth risking at 25/1 with the race sponsors and Betfair even though he has clearly been incredibly difficult to train.
His two runs over fences last season, having spent more than three years on the sidelines and been switched to Sam Thomas from the yard of Nicky Henderson in the interim, didn’t go to plan, but he shaped with bundles of promise when runner-up in a 16-runner handicap hurdle at Cheltenham last month.
Angels Breath ran well over hurdles at Cheltenham last month
He found the concession of almost 2st to the surprise winner too much in the closing stages but I like the way he ran to the line, without any sign of a wobble. The form makes sense, too, with the next three home all being winners of their previous start.
Given his fragility, there is no knowing whether Angels Breath will improve for the run - as you would normally assume - or recoil, but that looks to be factored into his price. You certainly can’t blame Sam Thomas for resisting going straight for the race because Angels Breath was far too fresh and fizzy when making his return at Kempton last season, when a gamble on him landing a Grade Two event went astray.
What we do know, with certainty, is that a mark of 144 might seriously underestimate a horse who looked destined for the top when he was a novice hurdler, and then novice chaser. On his chasing bow at Ascot, for instance, he thumped First Flow, a future Grade winner at the highest level, by eight lengths.
He is still only a nine-year-old and, like ten of the past 16 winners, is rated between 143 and 148. Lack of experience is a niggle – he’s had only four runs over fences – but, on the flip side, there could be plenty more to come.
Thomas will no doubt feel the race owes him because last year he saddled Stolen Silver, who went off 4/1 favourite and was moving fine when unseating his rider three out. Stolen Silver is also still entered, but he is pencilled in for the Coral Gold Cup Chase, at Newbury on December 2, after his taking comeback success over 3m at Chepstow.
Another 25/1 chance in the golden 143-148 band, Richmond Lake, is also going to be carrying some of my cash, even though he’s not run since signing off last season with a fluent success at Ayr. He didn’t win by far that day but his jockey, Brian Hughes, looked to have all the bases covered from some way out. In. the circumstances, another 3lb rise in the ratings looks lenient.
The seven-year-old improved with every run last term and looks to have the tools needed for the Paddy Power as he travels strongly, jumps soundly and is at home over the trip.
It’s a little disconcerting that Donald McCain hasn’t got a prep run into him – in a Stable Tour last month he warned that the Old Roan would come a bit soon – and some will no doubt be alarmed that the trainer had just one winner from 40 runners in November. However, that masks the fact that the yard had 11 seconds during the month, plus another 11 who made the frame. McCain ran one horse at Cheltenham’s October meeting, Ballygeary, and he finished a good third of 18 at 28/1, so stable form isn’t a great concern.
Whoever travels over from Ireland is sure to attract attention, although the only Irish-trained winner this century has been Tranquil Sea in 2009.
Willie Mullins still has Authorized Art engaged, while Chemical Energy (Gordon Elliott), Final Orders (Gavin Cromwell), Barnaculla (Michael Mulvany) and Mr Saxobeat (Tom Gibney) could also travel over. However, you can pick holes in all five, for all that each have been in action in the past two months.
How To Bet £20 ante-post on the Paddy Power Gold Cup
£6 win and £4 each-way on Angels Breath at 25/1 with Betfair and Paddy Power (five places)
£2 each-way on Richmond Lake at 25/1 (five places)
£2 win on Unexpected Party at 10/1 with bet365
