Florida vs. Utah Predictions, Picks & Odds Week 1: Are We in For Low-Scoring Affair?

sportsbookreview.com

29 August 2023

The No. 14 Utah Utesare the only ranked team in action on an 11-game Thursday college footballslate, as they host the Florida Gators. Read on for our Florida vs. Utah picksbased on the best college football odds.

Floridais coming off back-to-back 6-7 seasons, the first time it has had consecutivelosing seasons since 1978-79. The Gators have not had three straight losingseasons since 1945-47, and if they do so again, second-year head coach BillyNapier's seat would get hot quickly.

Utahentered the last two Pac-12 Championship Games as underdogs to Oregon and USCand won both outright. It looks to end the final year in the conference aswe know it as three-peat champions.

Though the two Pac-12 teams ranked ahead ofthe Utes (No. 6 USC, No. 10 Washington) are known for high-scoring andhigh-volume passing attacks, Kyle Whittingham's bunch is happy to play soliddefense and employ a ground-and-pound approach.

Hereis our best Florida vs. Utah prediction and college football picks (odds via our best college footballbetting sites); pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Florida vs. Utah prediction:Week 1

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Given the uncertainty surrounding both starting quarterbacks, wehave the utmost confidence in this five-star play.

In Florida's case, it has a veteran quarterback in Wisconsintransfer Graham Mertz, but what is uncertain is how the Gators will adapt theiroffense to his pocket-passing skillset, given that their offense was run-heavyunder one of the most mobile quarterbacks in the country last year, AnthonyRichardson. Mertz had a disappointing season last year with a 57% completionpercentage, and he has gone three consecutive seasons without finishing a yearwith better than a 67% completion percentage.

Mertz struggled mightily against AP top 25 competition in hisdays at Wisconsin. In those high-profile games, he has produced a Total QBR of38, a 54% completion percentage, a 5% interception percentage, and a 5-12touchdown-to-interception ratio, all of which rank worst among FBS quarterbacks. And he hasstruggled to take care of the ball, with 21 interceptions over the last twoseasons (10-plus interceptions in each).

Utah has one of the best front sevens in college football, andMertz facing it on the road in his first year in a new system is an envioustask. Last year's defense that led the conference in scoring (20.4 points per game), totaldefense (325.3 yards per game), and sacks (38) had 17 defenders play 200-plus snaps, and 12 of them return.

Up to a $500 Second Chance Bet

However, Utah's offense could also struggle out of the gate,with quarterback Cam Rising returning from an ACL injury he suffered in theRose Bowl. Rising has been named the starter even though hehas not yet been fully cleared, and we would not expect him to be 100% or forhim to be allowed to run much (he was third in the conference amongquarterbacks with 409 rushing yards) even if he does play.

Florida vs. Utah best odds

As all of our best sports betting apps are in unison with an O/U of 45.5, BetRivers is oureasy choice for our go-to shop to back the Under, especially since it does notbreak the bank with a price of -113. With FanDuel the lone sportsbook of thefive charging more in juice to back the Over, there is a chance the number goesup before kickoff if the betting splits warrant such a move.

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Florida vs. Utah odds

All of our best sports betting sites at one point hit a high of Utah -7, but only FanDuel andBetRivers remained at that number, with all others shading under the key numberto -6.5. That line movement, in combination with the Over coming down from ahigh of 46.5 and settling in at 45.5 at most shops, is a direct indictment onthe health and status of Cam Rising. If Rising cannot play or is limited,Utah’s quarterback situation is murky after backup Brandon Rose was injured inpractice earlier this month.

Thereis good two-way action on the point spread, as the wagers are 55/45 in favor ofthe underdog Gators. The total is split more in favor of the Over, 59/41, whichsuggests a further line drop would only be the result or more impactful newsrelated to Rising.

TheUtes range from as low as -265 moneyline favorites at DraftKings, FanDuel, andBetRivers to as high as -286 at Caesars.