Formula One Russian Grand Prix odds, picks, preview: Lewis Hamilton in favorable position due to Max Verstappen penalty

This Formula One season has provided the best title chase in at least five years, if not longer, and now fans are holding their breath any time Lewis Hamilton and Max Verstappen are near each other on track.

The pair collided last race in Italy, the second major incident between the two this season. Will they come together again in the Russian Grand Prix?

The Sochi Autodrom is a challenging track to pass on, but that could aid the chances of an incident. If they start near each other, one could make a desperate move knowing how vital track position is likely to be in the race.

However, Verstappen is facing a three-place grid penalty as a result of that incident at Monza. The chances he will be starting near Hamilton aren’t as high as expected. It might even make strategic sense for Red Bull to use Verstappen’s fourth engine of the season, going past the three engines teams are allowed to use before incurring a penalty.

Valtteri Bottas took that same engine penalty last race after taking pole and winning sprint qualifying. If the best Verstappen can start is fourth, maybe Red Bull covers up that three-place penalty by starting at the back of the grid for a new engine.

Between the grid penalty and the potential that Red Bull has Verstappen start from the back, I’d treat any Verstappen pick like poison for this race. Not to mention, Mercedes has won every race in Sochi dating back to 2014, and Red Bull has never taken pole in Russia. This track has suited Mercedes, which is likely still the case this year, even in a much more competitive field.

Friday post-Free Practice 1 and 2 update: Verstappen is taking the penalty for going past his engine allotment and will start the Russian Grand Prix from the back.

Even before factoring in the penalty, Hamilton was favored to take pole position at even money. Verstappen was 7-4 to win qualifying before the penalty, but is now 10-1.

The race odds are even more skewed to Hamilton, as expected. The British driver is -225 to win (was -135 before Verstappen’s engine penalty) while Verstappen is 14-1 (was 7-2 before the penalty). I noted Bottas as good value at 9-2, but he is now 3-1 with Verstappen mostly out of the picture. With Bottas there’s always the risk that Mercedes could pull team orders on Bottas to give Hamilton a win if it’s a 1-2 situation. At this point in the season, it’s clear Mercedes is giving Hamilton the favorable strategy when they can.

Russian Grand Prix odds

This might be a weekend for longshots because the weather forecast currently has a 100% chance of rain on qualifying day and a 73% chance on Sunday. You can always get an F1 fan excited by saying “100% chance of rain.” Hopefully, it doesn’t result in a repeat of Belgium, but the forecast says light rain, which should be the sweet spot for safe enough race conditions that still mess with the grid.

It’s trendy to say to keep an eye on the McLaren drivers after the 1-2 finish in Italy, but the McLaren car is more like the Mercedes car due to the Mercedes engine. If Russia should suit Mercedes, it should also suit McLaren to some extent. If things get weird in the wet, Lando Norris and Daniel Ricciardo could have a good shot at another podium. It’s only a matter of time until Norris gets his first win.

Drivers’ Championship

Verstappen gained two points on Hamilton in sprint qualifying in Italy and now leads by five points with eight races left on the calendar (although the calendar continues to change, so that’s no guarantee). The futures odds haven’t changed. Verstappen is still favored at -155, and Hamilton is +110.

The penalty hurts Verstappen’s chances in Russia, but gaining two points at Monza where Hamilton and Mercedes were expected to have an advantage (which the 1-2 finish in qualifying suggested), was a clear but small win for the Dutch driver.

Constructors’ Championship

The Constructors’ Championship did shift slightly towards Mercedes after Italy. Bottas carried the weekend for Mercedes, winning sprint qualifying and getting on the podium while Sergio Perez was only fifth on Red Bull. Mercedes moved from -135 to -165 while Red Bull is now +120 (6-5) after being even money before Italy.

Bottas is leaving Mercedes after the season, but maybe the reason the German manufacturer wins another title. While the Drivers’ Championship gets all the prestige, the Constructors’ Championship is how the teams get prize money for the season, so Bottas has provided plenty of value for Mercedes. He is 23 points ahead of Perez. Red Bull brought in Perez to give it asecond solidd driver, but he has struggled lately. The Mexican hasn’t been on the podium in seven races and failed to score points in three of those races.

For all of the dominance of Red Bull and Mercedes this season, it is amusing that the first 1-2 of the season came from McLaren in Italy. McLaren is solidly in the third spot in the standings, 13.5 points ahead of Ferrari.