Game 1: Arizona Diamondbacks at Milwaukee Brewers odds & predictions
The Arizona Diamondbacks and Milwaukee Brewers kick off their NL Wild Card series Tuesday. First pitch from American Family Field is set for 7:08 p.m. ET (ESPN2). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Diamondbacks vs. Brewers odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Regular-season series: Diamondbacks won 4-2
Milwaukee enters the Wild Card round as the 3 seed after securing the NL Central title. The Brewers finished the regular season by winning 8 of their last 12 games, including 7 wins vs. divisional opponents. Milwaukee will continue to rely on its bullpen in order to win this series. Brewers relievers led the league in win probability added and were 2nd in reliever ERA.
The 6th-seeded Arizona Diamondbacks made the playoffs after finishing 2nd behind the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL West. Arizona comes into the playoffs on a bit of a cold streak after losing 4 straight games to end the regular season. The Diamondbacks will have to find ways to win games when RHP Zac Gallen and RHP Merrill Kelley aren’t the starting pitchers.
The only other starter on the D-Backs roster with an ERA below 5.00 was LHP Tommy Henry, but he’s been out since late July with an elbow injury. Finding wins in games with pitchers like RHP Brandon Pfaadt starting on the mound will be key if the Diamondbacks want to make it to the NLDS.
Diamondbacks at Brewers projected starters
RHP Brandon Pfaadt vs. RHP Corbin Burnes
Pfaadt (3-9, 5.72 ERA) makes his 19th start and 20th appearance. He has a 1.41 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 8.8 K/9 through 96 IP.
- Last outing: Win, 5 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 5 H, 0 BB, 8 K in 3-0 road win Wednesday vs. Chicago White Sox
- First career start vs. Milwaukee
- First career postseason start
Burnes (10-8, 3.39 ERA) makes his 33rd start. He has a 1.07 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 9.3 K/9 through 193 2/3 IP.
- Last outing: No-decision, 4 IP, 0 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 4 K in 3-0 home win Thursday vs. St. Louis Cardinals
- Career vs. Arizona: 2-1, 3.77 ERA (28 2/3 IP, 12 ER), 22 H, 5 BB, 34 K across 5 starts
- Career postseason: 1-0, 1.20 ERA (15 IP, 2 ER) in 7 appearances (1 start)
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Diamondbacks at Brewers odds
BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:30 a.m. ET.
Diamondbacks at Brewers picks and predictions
Prediction
Brewers 4, Diamondbacks 1
PASS.
Milwaukee (-185) should pick up the win here but the odds do not present enough value for a wager. Bet on the run line and/or total instead.
LEAN BREWERS -1.5 (+110).
I like the Brewers to cover based on concerns about how Pfaadt will look in his 1st career postseason start. He was adequate this year as a rookie but I have a lot more trust in Burnes and his playoff experience. Expect the Brewers to take capitalize on their home-field advantage and win by margin.
BET UNDER 8 (-105).
The Under has hit in 6 of the last 10 meetings between these teams and has also cashed 6 times in both Milwaukee’s and Arizona’s last 10 games. The Under is 4-1 in Pfaadt’s last 5 turns and is 3-2 in Burnes’ last 5 starts. The Under has also hit in 2 of Burnes’ last 3 appearances vs. Arizona.
