NLDS Game 3: Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks odds, picks and predictions
The Los Angeles Dodgers and Arizona Diamondbacks meet Wednesday for Game 3 of their NL Division Series. First pitch at Chase Field in Phoenix is slated for a 9:07 p.m. ET (TBS). Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's lines around the Dodgers vs. Diamondbacksodds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Diamondbacks lead 2-0
Los Angeles has logged just 4 runs and 3 extra-base hits over the 1st 2 games of this series. Starters Clayton Kershaw and Bobby Miller gave the Dodgers a combined 2 innings, and L.A. has been playing from behind.
Arizona pitching owns a 2.25 ERA across 4 postseason games. Including the last dozen regular-season games, the Diamondbacks are 10-6 with a 2.87 ERA since Sept. 17.
Dodgers at Diamondbacks projected starters
RHP Lance Lynn vs. RHP Brandon Pfaadt
Lynn went 13-11 with a 5.73 ERA in 32 regular-season starts. He logged a 1.39 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 in 183.2 innings.
- Last start: Win, 6 IP, 2 H, 2 R, 4 BB, 4 K in 6-2 win at San Francisco Giants Sept. 29; owns a 6.23 ERA since Aug. 25
- 2023 road stats (regular season): 7-6, 6.07 ERA in 92 IP across 16 starts
- Last 5 starts vs. Diamondbacks: 3-1, 3.30 ERA in 30 IP (2017-20)
- Postseason: 5-5, with a 5.28 ERA, 1.64 WHIP in 58 IP (2011-21)
Pfaadt went 3-9 with a 5.72 ERA in 18 regular-season starts. He logged a 1.41 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 8.8 K/9 in 96 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 2 2/3 IP, 7 H, 3 R, 1 BB, 4 K in 6-3 win at Milwaukee Brewers in Tuesday's NL Wild Card Game 1
- 2023 home stats (regular season): 2-5, 6.46 ERA in 46 IP across 10 starts
- Career starts vs. Dodgers: 0-2, 9.35 ERA in 8 2/3 IP (2023)
- Made his 1st postseason start last week vs. Brewers
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Dodgers at Diamondbacks odds
BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines updated Tuesday at 8:01 p.m. ET.
Dodgers at Diamondbacks picks and predictions
Prediction
Dodgers 5, Diamondbacks 4
Few October games will have a pitching match-up that looks as bad on paper as this one. Lynn coughed up 44 home runs in the regular season, logged a 6.07 ERA on the road and has not pitched in 12 days. Pfaadt is a rookie who notched a regular-season ERA of 6.46 at home and has been shellacked by these Dodgers twice in as many starts.
Look for a bit of a zag against those lofty ERA figures. Both hurlers had some marginal rates play a bit of havoc with their surface numbers. Both may also be long gone when many of the key innings of this one are played out. Look for the bullpens -- both well rested -- to be heavily involved, and that favors the visiting Dodgers, whose regular-season 3.42 ERA ranked 3rd in MLB.
FanDuel Sportsbook has the best tag here: BACK THE DODGERS (-144).
L.A. does win a lot of games by big margins, but trying to get Lynn and his gopher-itis through 4-5 innings may turn an early lead sour.
Look for a lot of bullpen arms creating good match-ups for the defense. And the leather portion of Arizona's defense is top-notch.
Nine-and-a-half runs is a lot for a nervy postseason setting. TAKE THE UNDER 9.5 (+100).
