Genesis Invitational predictions: Odds, picks, best bets for Riviera

Starting this week, I will be writing regular betting previews for each PGA Tour event this season.

My focus will mostly be on outright winners, but I will throw in an occasional placement bet.

This week, we have the Genesis Invitational at Riviera Country Club outside of Los Angeles.

There are only 70 golfers in the field, yet the event will still have a cut after the first two rounds. The top 50 and ties, plus any golfer within 10 shots of the lead, will stick around and play the weekend. 

Riviera is one of my favorite courses on the PGA Tour. It’s not a birdie-fest like we have seen all too often to start the 2024 season. The Par 71 course, which measures 7,322 yards, tests all aspects of a golfer’s game. 

The fairways aren’t narrow, but they are undulating, and many of the holes feature doglegs. In 2023, the field hit the fairway on just 51% of tee shots. Even the accurate hitters have a tough time finding the short grass. 

Given the length of the course and difficulty hitting fairways, distance will be more important than accuracy this week. 

The greens at Riviera are large in size (7,500 square feet), but they are very tough to hit in regulation. This is due to a few factors. 

Many of the golfers will be hitting their approach shots from the rough and many will be blocked out by trees on approach shots. There are also run-off areas around the green that repel errant shots. 

The greens feature Poa annua grass and are on the faster side compared to The Tour average. When looking at the relative importance of strokes-gained statistics compared to strokes-gained totals, strokes gained around the green were the most important at this course in 2023. 

I see a fairly obvious course fit this week at Riviera. I am looking for golfers with these qualities:

• Ones who have a decent amount of distance off the tee.
• Ones who are good on approach shots from 150-plus yards.
• Ones who are excellent around the green.
• Ones who don’t mind putting on Poa annua greens. 

Course history is more predictive at Riviera than at most of the regular PGA Tour stops, so a previous high finish at this event is undoubtedly a positive. 

With all that in mind, here are the three outright bets that stick out to me this week at the Genesis Invitational.

It’s been somewhat of a slow start for Cantlay.

He finished 12th at The Sentry, 52nd at The American Express and 56th at the Farmers Insurance Open. His most recent appearance was at Pebble Beach, where he finished 11th. 

The underlying ball-striking numbers are concerning, but a trip to one of his favorite courses should promote some quality shots. He has made each of his last six cuts at Riviera with five top-20 finishes and two top-5s during that stretch. 

Historically, he’s been one of the most complete golfers on the PGA Tour. He’s good off the tee, he routinely gains strokes on approach, he has excellent hands around the green, and he’s an excellent putter on Poa annua. 

If he was in better form, we’d be looking at +1200 to +1400 odds. 

Morikawa was born in Los Angeles and played his college golf at California, so he’s very familiar with the state’s golf and Poa annua (type of grass) greens. 

After a somewhat disappointing 2022-23 season, he managed to pick up a win in the fall at the ZOZO Championship in Tokyo. Since then, he finished tied for fifth at The Sentry, missed the cut at the Farmers Insurance Open and was 14th at Pebble Beach. 

He’s an elite total driver (distance and accuracy), he’s one of the best in the world on approach (especially from 150-plus yards) and he has made major strides with his short game recently.

Morikawa made the cut in all four of his appearances at Riviera and has finished sixth and second on the course over the last two years. Let’s hope he can get across the finish line if he’s in contention again.

Finau hasn’t played his most consistent golf the last six months, but we aren’t looking for consistency when it comes to outright betting. We are looking for golfers who could potentially be in contention on Sunday. 

Finau has finished seventh or better in three of his last nine starts worldwide, so the form isn’t too far off.

He tends to play his best golf on the West Coast and should be well rested after sitting out last week’s Phoenix Open. 

He’s one of the best in the field in strokes gained on approach from the rough and in strokes gained on approach from 150-plus yards.

He has plenty of distance off the tee and might have the most underrated short game on the PGA Tour. The putter is always a wildcard, but he prefers Poa annua over some of the other grass types. 

He’s finished second at this event two times in his career (2018, 2021).