2024 Genesis Invitational odds, picks, sleepers: Justin Thomas among best bets plus Tiger Woods returns

Tiger Woods returns to the PGA Tour for the first time in 2024 this week at the famed Riviera Country Club for the Genesis Invitational — the annual event hosted by Woods and his foundation.

This year’s Genesis Invitational will be the third signature event of the season for the PGA Tour. The format will be a little different than the previous two signature events, as there will be a cut after the tournament’s first two rounds are completed. The top 50, ties and anyone within 10 shots of the leader will make the cut. The winner will also get  $4 million. The top four finishers will all clear seven-figure totals.

As the host, Woods was kind enough to give himself a sponsor exemption into the tournament. Other notable sponsor exemptions went to Will Zalatoris and Adam Scott. Woods’ presence will dominate the early headlines this week as he looks to promote his new apparel line, Sun Day Red. But Tiger doesn’t just play unless he thinks he can compete. It would be an all-time product placement and promotional dream if Tiger Woods somehow won for the first time at Riviera in his return to competitive golf.

Riviera tests so much of a player’s overall game. You need to drive the ball well. You need to control your irons from more than 200 yards. You need a creative and steady short game around the greens. Most of all, you need to be patient and have a plan for how you want to attack the golf course. The two holes that will test a player’s plan more than any others are the short par-4 10th and the difficult par-4 15th. There are four or five different ways to attack the 10th, and you have to be fully committed to executing your shot off the tee to pull it off.

Riviera Country Club should be a little softer than usual with all of the historic rain that the Los Angeles area has been dealing with. That will bump up driving distance a bit in my model, as players won’t be able to rely on their drives running out on the fairway. Throughout the years, Augusta National has been a great correlation course for when you build a model. Tiger Woods is the main outlier to that success as we have seen Bubba Watson, Phil Mickelson, Fred Couples, Dustin Johnson, Jon Rahm, Adam Scott and even Mike Weir win.

The Genesis Invitational

Course: The Riviera Country Club

Designed by: George C. Thomas

Yardage: 7,322

Par: 71

Average green size: 7,500 square feet

Greens: Poa annua

Fairways and rough: Kikuyu

Past champions: Jon Rahm 2023, Joaquin Niemann 2022, Max Homa 2021, Adam Scott 2020

Betting Slip

Justin Thomas +1800 continued his excellent play at the WM Phoenix Open. He gained strokes across the board for the week and gained more than 2.3 strokes on approach for the fifth tournament in a row. He is in total control of his driver, as well, as he has gained more than 1.3 strokes off the tee in each of his last three tournaments. He had a great chance to win here in 2019 and would desperately like to win his good friend Tiger Woods’ tournament.

Sam Burns +2200 has not shot over par in any round in 2024. He made a run at a win on Sunday at the WM Phoenix Open, where it looked like he was going to make every putt he stood over. He has been all or nothing at Riviera over the years, but you can’t ignore his current form. He has gained over 5.3 strokes on approach combined in his last two tournaments.

Adam Scott +3300 may have needed a sponsor exemption to get into the 2024 Genesis Invitational, but don’t let that throw you off the fact that he is one of the favorites to contend this week. He has been in excellent form worldwide and showed that last week at the WM Phoenix Open by gaining over 6.4 strokes on approach on his way to his seventh top-8 finish in his last ten tournaments. The former winner here has it all clicking coming into the week.

Sleeper

Si Woo Kim +6500 has gained more than 3.6 strokes ball striking in four straight tournaments. He has two straight top-14 finishes and is a proven winner when he pops. I especially like that he has gained more than 4 strokes combined around the green in his last two tournaments. He is always going to be an adventure on the greens, but he should give himself enough chances this week to possibly better his third-place finish here from 2019.

DFS Plays

Scottie Scheffler $11,500 is just so dominant from tee to green that you can’t ignore him, even if you have to pay a premium to get him on your teams. With the strength of the field, it’s tough to bet him as a winner at +600, but I don’t mind paying $11,500 for him if I am confident in my plays in the $8K range.

Max Homa $9,800 could see his usual sky-high ownership come down slightly from his last few results. I can get behind forgiving him because of his historic numbers here, but it’s tough to overlook the fact he’s struggled and he has lost strokes on approach in three straight tournaments. He was particularly bad off the tee at the WM Phoenix Open, losing over 2.3 strokes in just two rounds. There are too many good players priced lower than Homa this week for me to pay this price.

Patrick Cantlay $9,300 has struggled with his short wedge shots this season, but that shouldn’t hurt him here. He proved he can contend here last year when he finished third, but he must overcome his recent struggles with his irons. He has lost strokes on approach in four straight tournaments. I’m not used to seeing Cantlay priced this low, and I won’t ignore it. It feels like a trap, but I will gladly stick my foot in, hoping the week off after Pebble will give him enough time to figure out his issues.

Justin Thomas $9,100 See above.

Ludvig Åberg $9,000 might go under the radar as this is his first start at Riviera, but I wouldn’t completely fade him. He has it all. He is dominant off the tee and has a major champion’s hands around the greens. I will use him as a pivot off of some of my favorite low 9K and high 8K players, so I get some exposure in case he contends.

Tommy Fleetwood $8,800 is one of the best course-fit plays of the week. I wouldn’t hold his numbers at Pebble Beach a few weeks ago against him, as he has been on a great run of form in Europe to start the season.

Sam Burns $8,700 See above.

Sahith Theegala $8,600 might be overlooked this week after everyone played him at the Phoenix Open. He comes up as another great course fit because of his short game and his ability to work the ball both ways off the tee and from the fairway. He suffered from all the stops and starts last week and ran out of gas a bit as Nick Taylor was tremendous down the stretch. Theegala gained more than 8.2 strokes ball striking at TPC Scottsdale with many of the same distances into the greens that he will face this week.

Adam Scott $8,200 See above.

Will Zalatoris $7,900 will be looking to build on his performance at the Farmers Insurance Open this week. He gained across the board for the week, and it resulted in a top-14 finish. He had a fourth-place finish here last year and looks very comfortable at Riviera.

Nicolai Højgaard $7,800 has gained 3.5 or more strokes ball striking in six straight tournaments worldwide. This may be the first time he is teeing it up here, but you can’t overlook him at this price.

Byeong Hun An $7,600 crushed quite a few DFS teams last week with his lackluster performance. I’m a little worried about him as he has lost 1.2 or more strokes on approach in two straight outings. The price drop this week has me thinking about sprinkling him in a bit, but I will play Si Woo Kim much more than An this week.

Si Woo Kim $7,600 See above.

Salary Relief Options

Harris English $7,000

Beau Hossler $7,000

Christiaan Bezuidenhout $6,700

Tom Hoge $6,700

Tiger Woods $6,500 can make the cut this week, but that’s not enough for me to play him in DFS or cash games. I would rather take the upside of Hoge or Bezuidenhout in the 6K range.

One and Done

Each week, we will pick in reverse order of the standings, and we can’t duplicate picks in the same week. Spreadsheet tracking who we have used can be found here.

Standings

Dennis Esser: $859,450BrodyMiller $489,672.83

Hugh Kellenberger $465,141.80

Dennis Esser: If you planned it out before the season, you would be looking at Max Homa here, but that is a tough pill to swallow with how he is currently performing. With so much money at stake and the field being so small, this is a huge week for one and dones. I’m taking Scottie Scheffler to finally break through at Riviera Country Club because of his current form and how close he is to finally getting back in the winner’s circle. 

Hugh Kellenberger: Will Zalatoris has a good history at Riveria, including a solo fourth-place finish here a year ago. I had my concerns about Zalatoris coming off back surgery as recently as a month ago, but a T13 at Farmers gives me hope that he’s turned this thing around.

Brody Miller: Adam Scott. The Australian star is sixth best in total strokes gained at Riviera since 2016 (for golfers with eight or more rounds), and he’s played the most of any of the top names. Add in that Scott is suddenly in his best form in years with five top-10 finishes in his last six events and a T20 at the signature event at Pebble. Love this one.