Giants vs. Packers 'MNF' prediction: NFL odds, pick, best bets

For what it’s worth, the Tommy DeVito edition of the Giants has become a neat narrative that’s made for some amusing media coverage.

Given how low the bar was set since the undrafted rookie assumed the starting quarterback role, the Giants have played compellingly with back-to-back victories against the Commanders and Patriots.

All of a sudden, the Giants aren’t in last place in the NFC East, and Brian Daboll isn’t looking like the scapegoat many pinned him to be.

That is about as much as anyone in the Giants organization could have asked for, especially considering their mortifying start and the slew of injuries that seemingly put them on the fast track to the top of the draft.

(8:15 p.m. ET. ABC)

But speaking of redemption stories, none can deny the Packers’ climb to legitimacy has turned heads after losing five of their first seven games.

Green Bay is on a hot streak of its own, collecting three consecutive wins, including last week’s shocking triumph over the Chiefs.

Much of this has been thanks to Jordan Love’s coming-out party. The first-year starter has commanded a 116.9 passer rating with an average of 285.7 yards through this period.

Love went toe-to-toe with Patrick Mahomes, scoring on his first two possessions while the defense pressured a frustrated Chiefs passing game. The contest came down to who blinked first and that was Mahomes, who threw an interception with around five minutes remaining.

The Packers are looking more and more like a playoff contender and a ripe matchup against a Giants team that still ranks No. 32 overall in DVOA shouldn’t replicate the same challenges.

Sure, DeVito has completed 68.6 percent of his passes and hasn’t turned the ball over in his two victories. But the Packers are coming at him as a top-10 passing defense, yielding 203.8 yards per game.

Washington is the single worst secondary in football, while the Patriots struggled with the Giants blitz and the game therefore featured limited action on both ends.

The six-point spread on this game looks influenced by the Giants’ recent success, but it’s clear they caught a lucky break in their schedule at a dire time. All things considered, no team holds a worse points differential than the Giants at -133 while they have posted the second-least points.

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Plus, the Giants have been allergic to night games this season; they are 0-4 straight-up and 1-3 against the spread — failing to cover by an average of 13 points in those contests.

Another factor is that Green Bay is nursing some injuries of its own, with six defensive starters questionable to play. That’s in addition to Christian Watson’s omission from the receiving corps, and Aaron Jones is expected to miss the game, according to NFL Network.

The Giants will lean on Saquon Barkley to exploit a lackluster Packers defense, but I’m expecting Green Bay to make the most of its possessions. The Packers are No. 6 in third-down conversions — keeping the ball on the field at a 44 percent rate.

Even if the Giants can invade the red zone, they have been miserable in such situations, reaching pay dirt on only 40 percent of those chances. Green Bay has stopped nearly half of opposing red-zone invasions, which slots them in as a top-eight team in doing so.

Regardless, Love has sustained his play with a rebuilding team around him and Matt LaFleur soaks up the month of December when playoffs are on the horizon. He’s undefeated through 16 games as a head coach and 10-6 against the spread.

Count on LaFleur to conduct more creative play-calling with his rising signal-caller as the Packers have favorable conditions to cover by more than a touchdown Monday night.

Best Bet: Packers -6 (-110, FanDuel)