God's Tipster's Saturday Saratoga Picks: 7 races, 2 with Larry Rivelli runners, and Casa Creed in FourStarDave
Friday’s Race Recap from Saratoga:
(All odds US)
Saratoga:
Race 1: 1st@ 0.90/1 - BEST BET!🔥🔥🔥
Race 6: 4th@ 12.00/1
Race 7: 4th@ 1.10/1
Race 8: 8th@ 20.20/1
Race 9: 4th@ 0.40/1
In Race 1 Moore’s Law raced well back early and began advancing on the far turn. He still had 6 lengths to make up by the top of the stretch but gradually wore down his rivals for a clear win as the day’s BEST BET. In Race 6, Night Time was far back early and rallied late for fourth while wide. In Race 7, Vettriano had the perfect stalking trip in his debut but wasn’t able to capitalize and he checked in fourth. In Race 8, Bat Flip had nothing off the layoff checking in 8th and in Race 9, Americanrevolution broke poorly and made an early move but had no real excuse while fading to fourth in his return effort. He looked dreadful today and showed nothing of his prior Grade 1 form.
As we’ve begun the second half of the 2023 Saratoga meet here are my stats there for the last few years (based on $2 win bets):
Saratoga
2019: $1.66 ROI - 106 wagers
2020: $2.00 ROI - 146 wagers
2021: $2.04 ROI - 143 wagers
2022: $2.49 ROI - 131 wagers
2023: $2.55 ROI - 74 wagers 🔥🔥🔥
As you can see, I’ve turned a profit in each of the last three years and have shown continued improvement every year. My “across the board” or win/place/show ROI has been even more profitable this season with an ROI of $6.81 per $2 across the board bet. That’s because we had a few longshots that just missed. Dirt races have been more profitable than turf for me this meet so far and sprint races have been more profitable than routes. I’ve returned a positive ROI on debut runners as well.
Let’s move into our Saturday at Saratoga with a few more winners! Fast and firm conditions are what I’m hoping for but there’s a 40% chance of rain in the area so I’ll keep that in mind as I handicap.
Saratoga:
Race 1: Gucci Man - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 8/1)
Two-year-old maidens bred in New York sprint 6 furlongs here and most eyes will be on the Bob Baffert runner Tall Paul, who’s 8/5 on the morning line and debuted at Del Mar a few weeks ago. He set the pace and tired at five furlongs and now has to negotiate six. No thank you at short odds. Trainer Larry Rivelli debuts Gucci Man here and it’ll be his very first two-year-old dirt starter debuting for him. Rivelli, who’s based at Hawthorne Park in the Midwest has a 25% win percentage with two-year-olds and does particularly well with this ownership group (29% wins) for whatever that’s worth. I like this one’s work pattern as he’s graduated from 2 to 3 to 4 to 5 furlong drills and they looks plenty fast. Rivelli runners tend to show good early speed and I think this guy sits the trip off Tall Paul and should be in the catbird seat turning for home. Rivelli picks his spots wisely here at Saratoga as he’s only started two runners at the meet - both in stakes races and he’s got a winner and a second place finish. I think he’ll be lower than 8/1 here in the U.S. by post time so lock in those odds if you can.
Race 2: Reverend Moon - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 8/1)
Back-to-back 8/1 shots to start our day? Don’t mind if I do! Turf sprinters go 5 1/2 furlongs here and prayers up to Reverend Moon for an easy win here in his debut. I find it hard to resist Christophe Clement debut runners in these spots as they always seem to fire. He’s got a wicked 49% in the money percentage with two-year-olds debuting sprinting on turf and a 21% win percentage with an average payoff of $12.73 so the value is almost always there. Sire Omaha Beach is 5 for 18 with debut runners (27%) so I’m willing to take a shot that he’s the goods.
Race 5: Eliminate - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 9/5)
Blue blooded two-year-old maidens sprint 7 furlongs here and I crunched the numbers every which way and Eliminate came out on top each time. Aside from leading rider Irad Ortiz being in the irons and one of the leading trainers, Todd Pletcher, being at the helm, the works also look very sharp – with a sizzling bullet drill on July 29 that was the fastest of 101 runners going that distance that day. Let’s get to some stats. Pletcher’s debuting two-year-olds have had an average speed figure of 69.4 on dirt. The next closest to that debut speed figure in this race is Steve Asmussen, who averages 62. If debuting speed figures and top connections aren’t enough, Pletcher also has the top win percentage in the race among trainers debuting two-year-old runners at today’s 7 furlong distance on dirt (20%). Razor thin value at 9/5 but the numbers speak for themselves.
Race 6: Richies Princess - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 7/2)
It’s Larry Rivelli day at Saratoga! I like his runner in Race 1 and he’s got a debut runner here as well. To see his trainer stats please take a look at my selection for Race 1. Richies Princess will be ridden by top rider Irad Ortiz and the fact that he ends up here is probably no accident. This three-year-old daughter of Laoban has been sizzling up the worktab. She has 7 siblings and all 7 debuted for these same connections. 4 of the 7 won at first asking and another two of them lost by 1/2 length in their debut. I’m hoping that precocity is in the bloodlines and this filly debuts a winner!
Race 7: Love Reigns - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 5/2)
Three-year-old fillies sprint 5 1/2 furlongs on turf and Love Reigns is the choice here. She’s won three of five starts and none more impressive than her last where she looked hopelessly beaten in midstretch and somehow pulled a rabbit out of a hat and got up for the win. Wesley Ward seems to win at 25% everywhere he goes. This miss was favored in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint last year and had a rough trip. If she gets the trip today I think they’ve all got her to beat and I’ll take every bit of the 5/2 morning line on her.
Race 8: Lasso - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 15/1)
The Grade 2 Saratoga Special at 6 1/2 furlongs for two-year-olds will feature a heavy favorite, Rhyme Schemes, who's 4/5 breaking from the outside. He looks fine. I think his speed figure is inflated though and with more pace pressure than he received in his debut effort I’m looking for Lasso to spring the big upset here as he looks to rope them in. He was given a low speed figure in his winning debut but ran a big race reeling in the pacesetters that hadn’t exactly set a blistering pace. Later on that card older runners raced 6 furlongs and earned a speed figure in the 70’s running a slower closing figure than this guy ran in his debut. It’s possible he’s short on class but in a race where the main contenders have blistering early speed I’ll take my chances with the one who’s proven his ability to close from behind. He’s working bullets down at Gulfstream and he’s certain to outrun his 15/1 odds.
Race 9: Casa Creed - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 7/5)
The Grade 1 FourStarDave at a mile on turf is very similar to the Grade 3 Kelso that was run here just about a month ago and for that reason I think the race is going to Casa Creed again. He manhandled that field last time and won in a canter and I don’t see anything changing much here. He should sit the trip off the speed and be able to come with his patented late kick. The only worry is the Ortiz brothers riding both Todd Pletcher’s runners. It’s possible they’ll try to come up with a game plan to get Casa Creed beat but unless something crazy happens I think this race belongs to Casa Creed.
