Golden State Bettors Not Seeing Green

Heading into the season, most sports betting apps had the Golden State Warriors pegged at around 12/1 to win their fifth NBA title of the Splash Brothers era. But the road has been rocky 27 games in, with the team needing three consecutive wins — including a thriller over Boston Tuesday night — just to climb to 13-14 and within sniffing distance of the play-in.

So what’s wrong with the Warriors?

“I think you have to look at all the factors,” Tipico’s sportsbook manager, Sunny Gupta, told Sports Handle. “Draymond [Green] suspended indefinitely, [Andrew] Wiggins not being the player they hoped he would be, Klay Thompson is struggling as well.”

Well, there you have it: When three opening-day starters are either playing like shells of themselves — or, in Green’s case, not playing at all due to a penchant for inflicting physical violence on 7-footers — it’s pretty tough to contend for a title, legacies be damned.

And it certainly doesn’t help that the Warriors play in the league’s toughest division, the Pacific, where they’re a 20/1 longshot at PointsBet to top the Clippers (+190 favorites), Suns, Kings, and Lakers.

“Top to bottom, it’s the strongest,” Gupta said of the Pacific. “Three of the top four favorites to win the Western Conference come from the Pacific Division. The Kings were a three seed last year, and they’re not one of those three.”

Neither are the Warriors, whom Tipico now has priced at 25/1 to overcome their slow start and win it all, while FanDuel has them at 34/1 to do the same. Golden State is typically a very popular team to bet on, but Gupta said they’ve yet to crack the top five in terms of handle this year.

“There really hasn’t been much interest in them this season, even after the win last night,” said Gupta, referring to the home victory over the Celtics.

Curry? Not to worry

Though he’s long been the anchor of Golden State’s defense, Green’s “impact isn’t anywhere near where it used to be” on that side of the floor, PointsBet trader Wyatt Satre said in a recent e-newsletter circulated by the Fanatics-owned sportsbook. Satre wrote that “opposing big men have feasted on the Warriors’ interior throughout the season.”

Still, Gupta said Green’s absence — which is indefinite as he faces counseling for anger management issues — is “certainly a factor” in setting lines and totals, “especially when we’re looking at matchups with good post players.”

One Warrior who’s played like his old self is Steph Curry, who turned in another dazzling, game-saving performance in the win over the Celtics, who are currently favored to win it all.

Curry’s MVP odds — as fat as 50/1 at FanDuel — are at least as middling as Golden State’s title odds, but in terms of how much he means to the team he plays for, Gupta puts him in an upper ring with Nikola Jokic and Ja Morant. Morant just returned from a 25-game suspension of his own to sink a game-winner versus New Orleans on Tuesday.

“The other marquee matchup yesterday was Ja Morant’s return,” Gupta said. “Memphis was 6-19 without him, last year they were the two seed, not much has changed on their roster, and they obviously beat a good Pelicans team last night. They jumped from +20000 to +15000 in the title race just after that one win. I think Jokic being the multiple time MVP and driving that Nuggets team, he’s up there as well.”