Golf betting tips: Dave Tindall's Andalucia Masters preview and best bets

Golf betting tips: Andalucia Masters

1pt e.w. Julien Brun at 70/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Guido Migliozzi at 60/1 (bet365, 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1.5pts e.w. Joost Luiten at 28/1 (bet365, 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Ewen Ferguson at 40/1 (Boylesports 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1.5pts e.w. Robert MacIntyre at 33/1 (bet365, 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

The DP World Tour stays in Spain this week but punters hoping to delve into a wealth of past notes and stats for the annual Andalucia Masters have been thrown a curveball. Rather than a shootout at famed Valderrama, host course of Europe’s 1997 Ryder Cup win, the tournament moves to Real Club de Golf Sotogrande.

On first glance, perhaps it’s not the problem it first seems. After all, the two courses are just a 10-minute drive apart and both were designed by Robert Trent Jones Sr.

But take a look at both courses and these are definitely very different properties. Reviews of Sotogrande mention the course resembling a Florida layout, so flatter and wider off the tee. Indeed, that’s confirmed by Jaime Salaverri Aguilar, the President of the Real Club de Golf Sotogrande.

“Our club was at the origin of the urbanisation of Sotogrande, and its course was the first American-style course built in Europe,” he says on the official website. “It features wide fairways, elevated and spacious greens with gentle undulations that allow for speed, that combined with the prevailing winds in the area is the most challenging part of our course.”

Seve Ballesteros won the 1987 Spanish Professional Championship there while here’s a report from the Irish Independent in 2007. “Teenage hero Rory McIlroy spearheaded Ireland's charge to the top of the leaderboard on the first day of The Grey Goose Cup (European Nations Championship) at Sotogrande. The Holywood starlet shot six birdies in a 3-under par 69 that left him just one stroke off the pace set by Dane Peter Baunsoe in the individual competition.”

Yep, I did google Peter Baunsoe and a missed cut on the Challenge Tour in 2008 seems to mark the end of his bid to make a mark in the game. Fun fact: he went on to become a real estate agent. Of more use to this preview is the knowledge that Jose Maria Olazabal, Sergio Garcia and Padraig Harrington have won at Sotogrande. And, yep, Rory went on to win the individual event in that Grey Goose Cup in 2007, a result that took him back to the top of the World Amateur rankings.

Further insight into the course is provided by Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano, who told me that Sotogrande is one for “ball strikers.” The seven-time European Tour winner said: “It’s a fantastic course, definitely in the top three in Spain. Usually quite wide off the tee, tricky greens, normally quite firm and fast

“It’s all Bermuda so it might resemble some of the Florida courses. Nothing to do with Valderrama even though it’s the same designer and a similar area. Apparently, they’ve narrowed the fairways a bit and grew the rough a lot; the rough is patchy so if you add that to what is normally a windy area it’s a ball-strikers’ golf course.

“Plenty know it from the amateur days, they know it from the Sherry Cup/Copa Sotogrande but apparently it’s going to be wet.”

Brun the bet

Putting everything together, including last week’s scene on the final green, and my main bet is Julien Brun at 70/1. Last week the Frenchman was spraying the champagne over Mathieu Pavon at the Club de Campo; this week I’m hoping roles will be reversed.

It’s a while ago now but scroll down that list of Sherry Cup/Copa Sotogrande winners (it’s the same tournament) at Sotogrande and Brun lifted the silverware in 2011 after recording a three-shot win. Those behind him included Laurie Canter, Andy Sullivan, Adrian Otaegui, Tom Lewis and Alexander Levy.

Brun ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Approach this season which nods to his ball-striking skills. He’s also very tidy around the greens (7th in Scrambling and 13th ATG) as well as on them (10th SG: Putting).

If there’s a weakness, it’s the driver so he should certainly enjoy this course more than Valderrama where his debut last year resulted in a missed cut. Overall, he’s definitely a fan of golf in Spain and, as well as that Sotogrande win in 2011, you’ll find two excellent recent efforts in the country: a Challenge Tour win at Emporda in 2021 and second place in the Challenge Tour Grand Final at T-Golf later that same season.

As for recent form, the three-time Challenge Tour winner has finished 35th or better in five of his last six starts. That run includes a top six in last month’s Open de France, 16th in the Irish Open and 28th in last week’s Open de Espana where he closed with a 66.

Three years after Brun won the Copa Sotogrande, Guido Migliozzi scored a three-shot win of his own there. Some kid called Viktor Hovland also took part. Migliozzi beat him by 16 strokes!

I’ll say now that this preview isn’t just based on picking past course winners although it may take some convincing to persuade readers otherwise.

That said, the list of winners of that amateur event here includes some big names and Migliozzi, while not always showing up on a regular basis, certainly has gears that others don’t.

Picking on the highlights, he won twice on the DP World Tour in his rookie season, added a third win at last year’s prestigious Open de France at Le Golf National and also has a fourth and a 14th in his two starts in the US Open.

Those latter performances came at Torrey Pines and Brookline so add in Le Golf National and he enjoys testing himself on the best courses. Oh, here’s a cheeky one: Migliozzi has the same number of top fives in Majors as Patrick Cantlay.

The 26-year-old from Vicenza has a sixth at Valderrama (2020) to his name and he’s been playing some solid stuff, making 10 of his last 11 cuts on the DP World Tour. He had to settle for 47th last week but shot 68s in rounds two and four and found plenty of greens again.

It can be tricky knowing exactly when Migliozzi is going to ‘pop’ but the clues are there for it happening this week. Back him at 60/1.

Migliozzi’s ball-striking can come and go but Joost Luiten’s is just about always on point. The Dutchman ranks 5th for Strokes Gained: Tee To Green this season and 15th for SG: Approach.

Luiten has been threatening another win for some time and he should really have claimed it at the BMW International Open in Germany, folding down the stretch and finishing runner-up.

While it hurt, his results haven’t suffered. He was eighth at the following week’s British Masters and, fuelled by a top five at Crans, he’s currently on a run of four top 20s in his last five starts. The latest came in last week’s Open de Espana.

Luiten’s website is always good for regular updates and he hasn’t let us down this week. “I finished the Spanish Open with an eagle on 18, which was of course a nice boost. I certainly didn't have my best game from tee to green at Club de Campo Villa de Madrid. The timing just wasn't there, unfortunately that happens sometimes.”

That latest Luiten blog entry doesn’t sound too positive so far but he adds: “My short game kept me going. Putting was also strong for four days. Ultimately I finished at -11 and in joint twentieth place. So the feeling in the swing was not there, although I must say that it did feel better on the back nine on Sunday.”

Ah, maybe that last sentence could be significant and let’s hope he really did find something and is back to the ball-striking that saw him gain a combined 22 strokes on approach in his three starts in September.

Luiten also adds this about Sotogrande: “In my amateur days I played tournaments there and I thought it was a very good course.” And, as a final detail, he banked two top 15s in his first three starts on the Florida Swing so hopefully these visuals suit.

Scottish duo can shine

I’ll finish the staking plan by backing two Scotsmen, perhaps no bad thing given that we have 20mph winds forecast for the opening two rounds.

Two places below Luiten in the Strokes Gained: Approach stats at 17th we find Ewen Ferguson and he goes in as the fourth pick.

The Scotsman ranked 9th for SGA at Club de Campo last week. He was also 10th for SG: Putting and those two elements helped him shoot rounds of 68-69-67-66 and finish tied ninth.

That represented a second top 10 in the space of three starts following 10th place in the Open de France where he was the 54-hole leader. Ferguson, twice a winner on the DP World Tour last season, also has a strong record in Spain.

It started in his Challenge Tour days where he was runner-up in the Challenge de Espana in 2021 and, overall, the 27-year-old has eight top 25s in 13 appearances across top and second tier. The latest two: ninths at the Mallorca Golf Open and ninth last week in the Open de Espana.

Finally, I’m intrigued by the chances of Robert MacIntyre and 33/1 is definitely a price which turns that curiosity into a bet.

After scratching around for form in the build-up to the Ryder Cup and, to be frank, being carried by Justin Rose on the opening day, the left-hander from Oban found his mojo.

He and Rose took down Justin Thomas and Jordan Spieth 3&2 in Saturday’s fourballs before MacIntyre beat US Open winner Wyndham Clark - also in the field this week at 11/1 (a third of Bob’s price) - in Sunday’s singles.

After sounding genuinely thrilled at his Ryder Cup debut - “it’s incredible, this is what I dreamed of as a kid” - MacIntyre headed home to Scotland to contest the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship.

Perhaps it came too soon and he needed a break but after a sluggish start he shot a 65 in his final round to suggest good things can come from his uplifting experience in Rome.

Speaking about his close to the season, he told The Scotsman at the Dunhill: “I’m looking forward to it because there’s a lot I can still achieve. I want to get a win under my belt this year. I came close (at July’s Scottish Open), but I’ve not really come close since.”

MacIntyre was ninth at Valderrama last year and also note that he did well in his two Sherry Cups here at Sotogrande, finishing seventh in 2017 and sixth in 2016.

Posted at 0900 BST on 17/10/23

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