Nedbank Golf Challenge Tips & Odds 2023 for the field
Next up on the DP World Tour it's the Nedbank Golf Challenge on Thursday as Jamie Broadhurst delivers us a comprehensive betting preview, featuring his top four tips.
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Established in 1981, the professionals return to Gary Player Country Club in Sun City, South Africa for the 41st edition of the Nedbank Golf Challenge.
The field consists of 72 golfers; the top-64 from the Race2Dubai on the DP World Tour; and then 8 extras, consisting of invitations and previous winners on the Sunshine tour this season.
The goal for the players this week is to get inside the top-50 on the Race2Dubai standings to make it through to the DP World Tour Championship next week in Dubai to close out the 2022/2023 DP World Tour season.
Gary Player CC
- Par 72
- 7834 yards
- Gary Player Design
- 4 x Par 3s – ranging from 211-219 yards
- 10 x Par 4s – ranging from 424-503 yards
- 4 x Par 5s – ranging from 547-601 yards
- Bentgrass greens
A monster of a track on paper, it is actually the longest course that both the PGA and DP World Tour visit on their usual schedules.
However, Sun City sits at around 1200 metres above sea level, meaning we are presented with a good amount of Altitude this week. This means that each club the players use will go a certain % further through the air due to it being a lot thinner at altitude. So, South African players and those with good experience at altitude will be the play for me this week, as caddies will be more equipped to provide the correct yardages for certain shots for their players.
Gary Player CC is a long course, with or without altitude, there is no denying that. However, landing areas on the fairways are quite narrow with some real trouble lurking off them in the shape of typical African bushes and thick trees. Greens are quick and, being Bentgrass, if the weather stays as dry and as hot as predicted for this week, it will be like putting on glass this week. The greens are also smaller than average this week, finding them will prove really tricky but very rewarding if players do find them in regulation.
- 2022 – Tommy Fleetwood -11
- 2019 – Tommy Fleetwood -12
- 2018 – Lee Westwood -15
- 2017 – Branden Grace -11
- 2016 – Alex Noren -14
The Nedbank Golf Challenge was not played in 2020 and 2021, instead the South African Open was held here. Winners of these 2 renewals are below:
- 2021 – Daniel Van Tonder -16
- 2020 – Christiaan Bezuidenhout -18
Looking at the stats of the last five Nedbank Golf Challenge winners and the two South African Open winners in 2020 and 2021, 6th is the ranking for Greens in Regulation for around here. This emphasises the fact that players do need to find these greens as quickly as possible this week to optimise scoring on what will not be a low scoring week in the slightest.
Also, only one of the seven winners came worse than 14th place on the putting statistics for that specific week.
Players are faced with four par 5s this week, and 3 of these are below 580 yards, with the shortest being 547 yards. These holes at altitude will be severely short in terms of the usual Par 5s players are faced with, finding a guy that loves to eagle Par 5s will not go a miss this week!
There will be four selections again this week, which can be viewed in more detail below.
We had two selections finish one shot off the places last week, so let’s go one further this week and get those returns!
Nedbank Golf Challenge Tips
Rasmus Hojgaard each-way 8 places
- Recent Form– 16-26-25-4-T45
- Course Form– 8
It's been a very inconsistent year for Rasmus Hojgaard following a nasty injury around the start of the year which forced him to pull out of the Hero Cup team event, which seemed to be the Ryder Cup warm up for Europe.
However, 4th, 26th, 25th and a 16th place finish last time out was much better at a really solid track.
In his prime we definitely wouldn’t be getting 25/1 on him and surely he is buoyed with confidence after his recent upturn in form.
Jordan Smith each way 8 places
- Recent Form - 5-24-MC-2-72
- Course Form – 13-48-21-WD
I cannot speak about how important Greens in Regulation will be this week without talking about Jordan Smith, who ranks 1st on the DP World Tour for the statistic.
5th and a 24th in his last two starts where he has been inside the top-5 for Strokes Gained: Tee2Green and Greens in Regulation.
If Smith’s putter catches fire he will contend this week.
Ewen Ferguson each way 8 places
- Recent Form – 16-13-9-54-10
- Course Form – 13
12th for Driving Accuracy and 8th for Greens in Regulation, those are Ewen Ferguson’s highlights for this season on Tour.
He holds some cracking form at the Kenya Open at Karen Country Club at altitude as well, to go with his 13th placed finish here last year, which puts him in great stead at 33/1 this week when you also consider his recent form.
Joost Luiten each-way 8 places
- Recent Form – MC-20-WD-14-12-5
- Course Form – 11-10-27-12-14-24-16
Joost Luiten is in some consistent form of late and can look to continue it here this week.
The WD three starts ago can be ignored as it was at the rain-affected Alfred Dunhill Links where the tournament ran into late Monday evening so a lot of players had the same idea as Luiten.
The Dutchman is as accurate as they come with his irons consistently being his best attribute every season: ranking 15th this season for Strokes Gained Approach and 13th for Greens in Regulation. Not to mention the fact he has not missed a cut here in seven attempts.
He is a true journeyman of the Tour but is finding some form for sure, 40/1 looks huge this week.
