Golf betting tips: Final-round preview and best bets for the FedEx St. Jude Championship
Golf betting tips: PGA Tour final round
1pt e.w. Jordan Spieth at 10/1 (Bet365, 1/5 1,2,3)
If history is any guide, there are only five contenders heading into the final round of the FedEx St Jude Championship at TPC Southwind, the first event of the FedEx Cup Playoffs.
Lucas Glover leads on 14-under 196, one shot clear of Taylor Moore, two ahead of Tommy Fleetwood with Jordan Spieth and Max Homa three back. Half a dozen men, including Rory McIlroy and Viktor Hovland share sixth but they are another two shots back of the leader on 9-under and the numbers don’t like their chance.
In all, 26 of the last 27 winners at TPC Southwind were within four shots of the lead after 54 holes. The outlier was Len Mattiace in 2002 who was seven back. He was aided by the fact that the pre-final round leader Glen Hnatiuk started Sunday four clear of the field and ended it six back of the winner after carding a 77.
Lucas Glover was quite entertaining about his third round 66, saying: “It was scrappy Parts of it you could remove the "S".”
Essentially, however, he was content that he is currently playing well enough to negotiate problems. “Three months ago if I'd have been mad at 66 or if you told me I'd be mad at 66, I'd say you were crazy,” he said. “It’s splitting hairs, but it was a little bit of smoke and mirrors today, just to be honest. I’m still in a good spot, and I can wake up tomorrow in a better frame of mind.”
In his first five visits to the course, he made four cuts but failed to land a top 40. That all changed 12 months ago when he spent the entire week in the top 20 and ended it third. He went sub-70 just twice in his first 16 laps of Southwind but has now done so in eight of his last nine.
He is also, of course, in startlingly good form. Always something of a flusher tee-to-green, his flat-stick was the weak link. But since adding a broom-handle putter to his bag he has landed four top six finishes in five starts including victory last week in the Wyndham Championship – in that run, including this week, 20 of 21 scores have beaten 70.
He was 0-for-3 at converting a 54 hole lead until last week in the Wyndham Championship and he’s keeping his strategy simple: “The first nine holes is just pedal to the metal because they’re coming. Best players in the world are right behind me. Then see where we stand at the turn maybe. I won’t have too much interest until late. I never saw Bill Belichick coach the fourth quarter without knowing the score.”
He was, however, a little wary: “If I do what I can, then I’ll have a good chance but I’ve got to do a little better than today with my swing.”
Taylor Moore was T31 on his TPC Southwind debut last year and a winner of the Valspar Championship at Innisbrook earlier in 2023. He carded a Saturday 65 and made bogey at 18 to slip one back of Glover. He’s thinking back to that success in the spring.
“I was a couple of shots back on Sunday at Valspar and won there, and I think anytime you're within a couple shots going into the back nine on Sunday, you've got a legit shot. Definitely in a good position, and just going to go try to do it again.”
Tommy Fleetwood finished fourth on his course debut in 2019, carding 65-66 at the weekend, and he also closed with a 65 when T35 in 2020. He was T46 on his last visit so his record was in regression until this week.
He’s spent a lot of this year in contention – at Innisbrook, Harbour Town, Quail Hollow, Renaissance and Royal Liverpool. He also missed out at the Canadian Open in extra holes. He’s in that irritating state when he knows he’s close to a first PGA Tour win and everyone else knows it too.
“The easiest thing to do is force things and try too hard,” he said. “I just want to go out there and enjoy it. It’s a great opportunity. I need to trust myself, play my game, and see where that ends up. If you’ve done that, you can live with yourself at the end of the day.”
And when pressed he kept it even more straightforward: “I’m playing very well and I’ve got a better chance than if I was level par.”
Spieth went flat at the end of the third round, closing with six pars. He’s been on an odd run. Nine of his last 14 stroke play starts have been top 30s, six of them top six, but his other five efforts were missed cuts, including four in his last seven appearances. He’s on track for a best finish at Southwind, a layout where he has a palindromic record: MC-12-30-12-MC. Homa is absolutely flying in the face of all previous experience at Southwind because in six appearances there he has never registered a top 40.
The books price Glover at 23/10, Moore and Fleetwood 4/1, Homa 9/1 and Spieth 10/1. McIlroy is 16/1 and most favoured of those to emerge from the pack. That 10/1 for Spieth look a little big – he’s got more wins than the rest of the top five and he won his last PGA Tour title from three back (last year in the RBC Heritage).
Posted at 1000 BST on 13/08/2023
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