Golf betting tips: Martin Matthews previews the Zozo Championship with best bets

Golf betting tips: Zozo Championship

2pts e.w. Sahith Theegala at 20/1 (Paddy Power/Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

1pt e.w. Joel Dahmen at 66/1 (Paddy Power/Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

1pt e.w. Cameron Champ at 55/1 (Paddy Power/Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

1pt e.w. Ryo Hisatsune at 100/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

After a week on the West Coast in Vegas the PGA Tour now heads East, to the Far East to be precise, as it is time for the annual trip to Japan for the ZOZO Championship.

The event, now in it’s fifth year returned to Japan in 2021 after being held in California in 2020 due to the Covid pandemic.

This year then marks the fourth playing at the par 70, Narashino CC situated about 25 miles outside of Tokyo.

Home favourite Hideki Matsuyama as well as several star American names including Xander Schauffele and Collin Morikawa return to the fray this week, however aside from lacklustre Ryder Cup efforts, this will be the first start for many since the Fedex Cup Play offs and it is debatable how ‘game sharp’ they will be for potentially their only outing this side of January. I am then happy to take my chances further down the betting on four players.

Theegala to triumph

I will start my team this week with Sahith Theegala.

Bagging your first two PGA Tour titles in consecutive starts is unusual of course, however not unprecedented, and having put Theegala up for this last year I am loathed to abandon him on his return after he rewarded us with fifth place 12 months ago.

My logic for putting Sahith up for this event last year was that he had shown a liking for a classical tree lined test such as at the Travelers where he just missed out on the title and at the Valspar where he also posted a top ten finish on his debut season.

That top ten at the Copperhead, host of the Valspar, particularly links well here through the likes of Bradley, last years champion, as well as Tringale, Woodland, Conners and NeSmith who have all performed strongly at both events.

In addition Theegala’s recent win at Silverado came on another classical tree lined layout.

With that win under his belt now there is a danger that the 25yr old takes his foot off the gas, however he doesn’t strike me as that type of character and if anything I can see him pushing on again buoyed by the confidence that win, and particularly the hugely impressive way he closed it out, will have given him.

What’s more a glance at Theegala’s social media from the past weekend shows us that he is out in Japan already acclimatizing himself and putting the work in on the course, so he is clearly fully focused on the week ahead.

Granted it is four weeks now since Sahith took down the trophy at the Fortinet so rustiness could be a risk, however the only difference in his preparation this year, to last year for this event, is that he missed the cut last year at the Sanderson’s in between so if anything I prefer his preparation this year.

In addition let’s not forget there was a four week gap between his appearance at the BMW prior to his recent win at Silverado so we know he goes well when fresh.

I’ll take the young Californian then to stay hot and show us the class act he is by backing up win number one by bagging a second trophy for his cabinet this week.

Champ can reign

Next up I am going to take my chances with Cameron Champ.

On the face of it you wouldn’t expect Narashino CC with its narrow tree lined fairways to be a layout you would expect big hitting Champ to thrive on, however having finished eighth here last year, with a low round of 64 it is clearly one that fits his eye.

Following that top ten Champ’s game as it is prone to pretty much deserted him for the remainder of 2022 and 2023 and with only a top ten in Mexico of note he finished the regular season at 147th in the Fedex standings.

With his exemption for his most recent win at the 3M Open in 2021 due to run out at the end of this year then it was time for Cameron to step up otherwise there was a real risk of losing his card.

The good news for Cameron and his fans though is that over the past two weeks he appears to have found something in his game, first of all posting a ninth place finish at the Sanderson’s and then backing that up with an 18th place last week at the Shriners.

At the Shriners, Champ headed in to the weekend in pole position however Saturday saw the wheels came off early in his round as after a triple bogey seven on the third he found himself five over for the day through six holes. Fair play to Cameron though as he steadied the ship and while he still ended up posting a disappointing 74 he was under par the rest of the way. Furthermore he then bounced back with a 65 on Sunday.

The Californian talked in his interviews in Vegas about how he has been working on the mental side of the game, which he felt was weighing him down, so on this front he will surely take the positives in the eventual top 20, which now sees him on the cusp of the top 125.

Two strong weeks in the bank then and what we do know about Champ is when everything clicks he looks a world beater and one of the most talented guys out there, more often than not rubber stamping that upturn in form with a win.

To expand on that further Cameron’s last win in 2021 came in his immediate start after an out of the blue 11th at the John Deere, while his previous win at the Fortinet came after an eye catching seasons opener the previous week at the Sanderson Farms.

Furthermore with two of Champ’s three wins coming in the Fall this is clearly a time of year that he thrives.

Champ became a Father for the first time back in the summer and it may just be the contentment he is taking from that has helped him find some peace again on the golf course. As a proven winner then and with him being very much a man to follow when he ‘gets hot’ I will happily take the recent hints and jump on board this week.

Joy for Joel

Next cab off the rank this week is Joel Dahmen.

I sided with Dahmen last week in Las Vegas at three figure odds as in addition to his strong record in the desert he appeared to have turned a corner the previous week in Mississippi, and while he couldn’t quite finish the job off there was more than enough in his display to warrant going in with him again this week.

After starting slowly at the Shriners with a +1 round of 72 Joel produced rounds of 65 64 & 66, putting on a superb ball striking display. Joel ranked first off the tee for the week, third from tee to green, tenth in approach play, while ninth in Driving accuracy and fourth in old fashioned GIR.

Basically he had it on a string for the week and if it wasn’t for a very luke warm putter he would have had every chance of taking home the trophy.

On to this week then and as a shorter accurate hitter, Narashino CC is clearly a track that fits Dahmen’s skill sets and he backed this thought up with a solid 16th place finish here last year.

2023 has been a tough year for Dahmen as a whole with his regular end of season ranking of 84th owing an awful lot to some strong play in the Fall events last year. Two events in to the Fall series though he has improved that position to 76th and if he can produce a big finish to the year he would have a good chance of making the ‘next ten’ from 50-60 in the final Fedex rankings, something which would see him qualify for the first two designated events next year at Pebble Beach and Riviera.

With three top tens in the Fall events in a row last year Joel now appears to be building up similar momentum this year so there seems a good chance he can achieve this.

Finally with Dahmen’s lone PGA Tour title coming in the Corales Puntacana event two years ago we know he is comfortable in blustery conditions, so if the wind does pick up at times this week as forecast he his more than equipped to cope.

I’ll stick with Dahmen this week then to build on his strong week in Vegas and make a bold bid for his second PGA Tour title here.

Home comforts for Hisatsune

While Japanese eyes will inevitably be focused on Hideki Matsuyama this week the home grown player who by far appeals to me the most at the odds is Ryo Hisatsune.

Hisatsune turned professional in 2020 and after winning three times on the Japan Challenge Tour he turned his attention to the DP World Tour earning status via Q School at the end of 2022.

Since then the 21yr old has been a revelation posting five top tens over the season including two top three finishes, before landing his maiden DP World Tour Title at the French Open in his most recent start three weeks ago.

In that victory at Le Golf National Ryo showed us that he is more than comfortable on a track that requires really strong tee to green play, something that is backed up with his season long stats on the DP World Tour of ninth in Driving Accuracy and 15th in good old fashioned GIR.

Aside from his obvious comfort levels playing at home then, you would expect Ryo to have all the skill sets required to handle the narrow tree lined fairways of this layout.

Furthermore on this front we don’t need to speculate too much as Hisatsune finished 12th here last year, a result, which could have been much better but for a subdued closing 70.

Returning here 12 months later then as a far more accomplished player and of course as a DP World Tour winner, I expect a bold showing from Ryo this week and he looks great each way value to me at the odds to wow the home crowds with a big performance.

Posted at 0930 BST on 17/10/23

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