Golf betting trends following the PGA Championship: Koepka is back, Scheffler still surging
The PGA Championship has come and gone and Brooks Koepka has vaulted himself into rarified air with major win No. 5.
We’ll break down how Koepka conquered Oak Hill CC and touch on a few other standouts from the event, including Scottie Scheffler, Viktor Hovland and Tyrrell Hatton.
Golf betting trends
Brooks is back
Koepka shot a final round 75 at Augusta National last month... but lost the Masters by four strokes.
When asked after the third round of the PGA Championship about what happened he said he couldn’t reveal it but he would “never do it again.” Well, it looks like he wasn’t lying.
Koepka fired a clinical Sunday 67 to win the Wanamaker Trophy for a third time, bringing his career major total to five.
Only 20 other golfers in history have reached that number with Phil Mickelson being the most recent player to do so before Koepka.
Koepka’s major success is staggering: five wins and 14 top-five finishes in 36 starts.
For context, Koepka’s 39% top-five rate comes in higher than Tiger Woods’ 36%, per Justin Ray Golf. With the U.S. Open just around the corner, placing a bet on Koepka to finish inside the top 10 or top five could certainly be profitable.
He’s finished inside the top five in four of his last five U.S. Open starts (1, 1, 2, T4, 55).
But how did Brooks manage to conquer Oak Hill? At the risk of oversimplifying, he made a lot of birdies and didn’t bogey much.
Koepka’s 18 birdies were tied for the tournament lead (seven other players made between 16 and 17), but his ability to limit damage is what separated him from the pack.
He only made nine bogeys all tournament and had zero doubles or worse. It also helps that he ranked inside the top 15 in every major strokes gained category, according to DataGolf.
Koepka is the +700 to win LIV Golf’s Washington, D.C. event this week but we don’t think there’s value there. That said, he is 11-to-1 to win the U.S. Open next month.
Golf betting trends: Scheffler is a money printer
Without taking away from Koepka’s achievement, it’s not unreasonable to say Scheffler could have — and maybe should have — won this golf tournament.
The big Texan finished two back after firing a final round 65. He ranked first in strokes gained: tee-to-green (+3.82) during the event, but was undone by a cold putter. That’s pretty much been the story all season long but it hasn’t stopped Scheffler from picking up 14 straight top-12 finishes and two wins.
That has him sitting first in the PGA Tour’s money list at $14,046,910.
Scheffler ranks first in strokes gained total (+2.490), strokes gained off-the-tee (+1.032) and strokes gained tee-to-green (+2.454) but sits 92nd in strokes gained putting (+0.037) on the season.
If his flat stick was performing even slightly better he would probably have at least one or two more victories. That’s because the man doesn’t put many squares on his card.
Scheffler made only seven bogeys at the PGA Championship and five of them came within an eight-hole stretch. An even crazier stat: His three-putt on the first hole Saturday broke a 102-hole streak where he avoided that distinction.
Betting on Scheffler to come inside the top 10 this year has hit at a 73.3% clip (11 for 15) while a top-five finish has hit 53.3% of the time (8 for 15). There’s no reason to believe that trend can’t continue.
Hovland is flushing it
Hovland ranked first in strokes gained: approach (+2.56) at the PGA Championship and has now gained in that category in eight of his last nine events.
It’s an encouraging sign but is also a little twisted, considering one bad iron shot on the 70th hole ultimately decided his tournament.
But regardless, the Norweigan has begun to step up in the biggest of moments. After recording zero top-10 finishes in his first 11 major starts, Hovland has recorded three straight top-seven finishes. He was also T3 at the Players Championship in March.
He’s now finished inside the top 10 in four of his last seven starts and is trending in a very positive direction.
Hovland has raised his floor and we wouldn’t be surprised if he picked up a win this season.
Golf betting trends: Hatton's hot streak
Credit to Hatton because it would have been really easy to fold up and mail it in after shooting an opening round 77. Even easier when you consider he was seven over after the first nine holes.
But the Englishman didn’t do that. Instead, he battled back to a T15 finish after carding three straight rounds in the 60s (68-69-67).
That was Hatton’s fourth straight top-20 finish and ninth of the season in 15 events. He’s also now finished inside the top 15 in three of his last six majors.
He has been remarkably consistent across the board, ranking in the top 30 in every major strokes gained category at the PGA Championship. That’s been his story all year long.
His season-long ranks are as follows: 14th in SG: OTT, 12th in SG: APP, 21st in SG: PUTT and 50th in SG: ARG — all of that adds up to third in strokes gained: total.
With no discernable holes in his game, picking Hatton to card top-20 or top 10-finishes should be profitable until proven otherwise.
