Golf betting trends following the Masters: Jon Rahm’s brilliance, the LIV stars and more

Jon Rahm is your 2023 Masters Champion, continuing his stretch of domiannce this season.

We’ll break down the Spaniard’s win at Augusta National plus the other top storylines from golf’s first major, including how LIV Golf showed out and the performances of Jordan Spieth and Sahith Theegala.

Golf betting trends

A second major championship for Rahm

We took Rahm as our best bet to win the Masters last week but it’s not like that prediction came out of left field.

Only two players — Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy — had shorter odds than him and for good reason. All this guy does is win. Rahm’s tee’d it up 13 times since last October and has won six of those events. Four of those have been on the PGA Tour in 2023.

If you’re going to throw out his withdrawal from the Players Championship in March due to illness, which we feel inclined to do, that’s a 50% win rate... insane.

So how did he get the job done at Augusta? Well, after spotting the field two strokes with a four-putt on the very first hole, Rahm proceeded to play the next 71 at 14-under with just seven bogeys. It was a ball-striking clinic, too.

He led the event in strokes gained: tee-to-green (+3.56) and hit the third-most greens in regulation (72.22%), per DataGolf. Rahm was only inside the top 20 in strokes gained: putting in one of the four rounds but he made the big ones when it mattered.

So should you keep betting on Rahm to win? Absolutely.

Rahm leads the PGA Tour in strokes gained: total (+2.498), birdie average (5.15), scoring average (68.79) and is ninth in driving distance (312.2) and third in greens in regulation (72.73%).

He will be the favourite to win most tournaments from here on out but there’s nothing to suggest he’ll slow down. If you were to have bet $100 on him in every event since January 1 (including the Players), you would be up $2,300 or 23 units.

Only four players not named Tiger Woods have won two-plus majors in the same season since 2000 and Rahm is in great shape to join that list.

Golf betting trends: LIVing it up

There were plenty of questions on how the LIV Golf contingent would show up to the first major since the split, and we definitely got some answers.

Cameron Smith (+2,200) and Dustin Johnson (+2,500) held the shortest odds among all LIV players pre-event but the pair were non-factors at T34 and T48.

What we did get, though, was a strong return to major championship form from Brooks Koepka, a tidy T4 from Patrick Reed and a downright remarkable runner-up finish from 52-year-old Phil Mickelson.

Koepka had won LIV’s event the week prior so there was some buzz around him heading into the Masters. It looked like he had a solid shot at the green jacket, too, but the four-time major champion played his final 27 holes at 5-over par.

Reed had a workmanlike performance, never shooting over par in any of the four rounds. But Mickelson defied all odds and fired a final-round 65 to take the clubhouse lead as Rahm traversed the back nine on Sunday.

So how are we supposed to handicap this? We’re only going to see these players compete against the likes of Rahm and Scheffler at three more events this season. It’s tough to say how these results will translate because Augusta has a notoriously sticky course history.

Koepka has been a major machine before, though, and he should be worth a look at the PGA Championship and U.S. Open — two events he’s won twice before.

While Smith’s performance was disappointing, he could kick things into gear as the season continues.

How close is Spieth to being back?

Spieth’s start to 2023 was frustrating.

He carded a T13 at the Sentry Tournament of Champions — which is a 39-player event — and followed that up with a missed cut and a T63.

A T6 finish at the WM Phoenix Open in February left a lot to be desired considering he was eight strokes back of Scheffler (the winner) and ranked 51 out of 66 in strokes gained: putting.

In fact, the putter was a huge problem at the time. Spieth could barely hit a five-footer straight and probably would have won the Arnold Palmer Invitational in March if it didn’t abandon him on the last few holes.

But he ended up finishing T4 at that event and has followed it up with two more top-four finishes (T3 Valspar Championship, T4 Masters). The putter has looked better, too. He picked up strokes in each of the past four events, not including the WGC Match Play.

At Augusta, Spieth ranked 10th in strokes gained: putting for the tournament and first in birdies (21) but still left a lot on the table.

If he can build off Sunday’s performance and tighten up the flat stick, expect to see plenty more top-five finishes and even a few wins.

Golf betting trends: Theegala is coming

Theegala fired a final-round 67 to vault himself into solo ninth place at the Masters.

It was his first top 10 at a major in just his fourth major start. It was also his 13th consecutive cut made. The Pepperdine product is in his sophmore PGA Tour season and we’re starting to see flashes of an extremely high-ceiling player.

He hit 65.3% of greens in regulation (16th-best) in some brutal weather conditions while making 18 birdies (seventh-best). He also did this:

Tiger Woods in 2005, anyone?

Theegala has never won on the tour before but that’s bound to change soon. It’s a little risky to pick when he’ll do it but there are other ways to back the skilled 25-year-old.

Theegala has four top-20 finishes in his last seven starts — three top 10s and two top fives. He was +700 to card a top 10 at Augusta last week and you can probably find him with similar value at other designated or big name events.