Golfbet Insider: Shriners Children's Open
6H AGO
Regardless of your position following the first two tournaments of the season in PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf, you may have wondered when you can loosen the reins and let the kids play without it costing you much, if anything. Well, get ready.
As I recapped in detail here, that strategy would have backfired big time at the Fantasy Golf season-opening Fortinet Championship, where a high percentage of the small handful of chalk delivered on cue. It’s why so many gamers got off to a hot start.
Last week’s Sanderson Farms Championship resulted in a much wider dispersion of value, but that was expected, so gains and losses shouldn’t be overly scrutinized. Both good and bad luck defined outcomes for most, but it shouldn’t define your emotional response, even if you populated the overall leaderboard. Because we always start with zero and build, survival was the objective. Success was a bonus.
But this week’s Shriners Children’s Open presents an ideal time to get frisky regardless if you’re pacing or chasing. The usual suspects will dominate ownership percentages, but TPC Summerlin hosts shootouts, and it will again this week in favorable conditions.
Birdies and better will abound, so when you consider how PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf measures performance, fantasy scoring will be way up. Last year’s overall leader totaled 532 points, and there haven’t been any scoring changes this season, so it’s the going-for-the-gold standard. Compare that to the 515 points that led the Fortinet, which was impressive in its own right, but it was because the chalk fulfilled expectations, not because Silverado Resort and Spa’s North Course rolled over (TPC Summerlin averaged -1.995 strokes to par last year. As noted in the link above, Silverado checked in at -0.843 strokes to par four weeks ago).
Further, consider that the four most-owned golfers in the 2022 Shriners are not in this week’s field – Patrick Cantlay (79%), Sungjae Im (70%), Max Homa (57%) and Aaron Wise (38%). Taylor Montgomery (35%) slotted fifth, and he’s currently scuffling. Cam Davis (29%) was sixth and deserves more love this week. That sixsome finished a respective T2, seventh, T20, T64, T15 and T37. That’s not bad, but it’s not the stuff of league champions.
Six golfers recorded a top-four finish here a year ago. Following are the five other than Cantlay, their finish, ownership percentage and ranking overall: Tom Kim (win, 26%, seventh), Matt NeSmith (T2, 4%, 29th), Tom Hoge (T4, 11%, 13th), Mito Pereira (T4, 4%, T23) and S.H. Kim (T4, 3%, 34th). That’s the kind of random you’d expect from a shootout, but note that all slotted inside the top quartile of golfers owned. That’s your pool. (Last year’s field was 144 deep; this week’s is 132.)
Obviously, connecting for at least four of those guys wouldn’t have been easy, but again, the overall winner totaled 532 points, so it’s out there. For comparison's sake, 515 points (the 2023 Fortinet winner) would have ranked 50th overall at the 2022 Shriners.
So, even though rationing starts in Segment 1 is a non-factor, go ahead and reach for dynamic talent in, say, the top 35 most-owned who you think will make the cut and potentially surprise. While we all hope for that very thing, smart short-range strategy aligns with it infrequently, but it does right now.
If you’re still on the fence, remember that this is but the third tournament of 40 contributing for the season, so you have time to recover from a poor performance. More realistically, churn will occur because chalky lineups won’t match what we experienced at Silverado. They just won’t. Fortinet was special and rare. It’s why I was compelled to dive into it. The one-liner of a takeaway was that chalk is more likely to meet projections on a harder course. Ding.
Lastly, and most importantly, remember my rule No. 1 of fantasy golf – to have fun. Let the kids play in Vegas.
We’ll tackle a new array of variables for the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP next week. It’s the only limited field of the FedExCup Fall, and it won’t have a cut, so the dynamic of cutthroat competition will return immediately.
Luke List (+200 = Top 20) … Suddenly, he thinks he’s Lucas Glover rolling it in from everywhere. A 43-footer to win the Sanderson Farms Championship in the playoff is one thing, but the 38-year-old has been way above career average inside 10 feet of late. He started the FedExCup Fall strong with a T25, so his conversion rate no longer is fluky. The best part of him bouncing off the victory is that the opportunity came to him, and he pounced. The lingering effects of him stealing one rapidly replaced the nerves of the hunt, and that does not contribute to a projection of a letdown. Now that he’s in The Sentry, the next target is a spot inside The Next 10 to qualify for the first two Signature Events of 2024. At 61st in the FedExCup, he’s first in line outside the bubble. All three of his paydays in five tries at TPC Summerlin are top 20s.
Odds were sourced on Wednesday, Oct. 11, at 6 a.m. ET. For live odds, visit BetMGM.
NOTE: These are notables who are not included in my Power Rankings or Sleepers. Connect with me on X if you want analysis, insight and opinion for anyone else.
Ben Griffin (+188 = Top 20) … Despite his thoughtful nature, he’s probably had enough of the learning experiences. You’ll recall that he got off to a nice start at THE PLAYERS Championship seven months ago, and then faded to T35. Of course, the closest object in the rearview mirror was a failure to slam the door at The Country Club of Jackson where he brought the field back into play and lost in a playoff. The silver lining to a steady fade in final rounds throughout his rookie season is that he’s 51st in the FedExCup Fall standings, so we’re watching how The Next 10 manifests amid mistakes. That’s why he’s pegging it again at TPC Summerlin, where he’s making his second appearance (T60, 2022). With a coveted spot inside The Next 10 his to lose, my interest is in the chip on his shoulder to clean up in the final round.
Akshay Bhatia (+110 = Top 40) … As much as I’d love to shove you into a top 20, retreat and accept plus-value for this prop. He should have a blast in his second try at TPC Summerlin (MC, 2019) because his tee-to-green game plays up when there’s room to miss, but the lefty needs to exhibit more consistency to earn a higher faith.
Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+188 = Top 20) … Because the greens of TPC Summerlin are expansive, the tournament can evolve into a putting contest. Baked into that is the prerequisite to toss as many scoring chances against the wall as possible. For talents like the South African, who are just average on approach but known for their work on the greens, more inviting targets should elevate their confidence because it puts the putter into their hands to score instead of save par. Given that he’s fresh off a T6 in Mississippi and finished T20 in his debut here last year, and because he’s a multiple winner at a high level abroad, we can buy into a short memory of recent success after months of silence. A wrist injury at Silverado didn’t help at the time, but it doesn’t hurt now.
Lexi Thompson (+900 = Make the Cut) … Gotta get in on this because look at that kickback! Women playing the PGA TOUR isn’t unprecedented, but she’s the first to peg it since the TOUR has partnered with Official Betting Operators, so my interest is squarely on how BetMGM fares in this market. It demands attention.
PARLAY: Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Luke List and Justin Suh (+200 = All to make the cut)
Harry Hall (+600 = Top Brit and Irish)
Kelly Kraft (+250 = Top 40)
Martin Laird (+120 = Top 40)
Matt NeSmith (+240 = Top 20)
Adam Svensson (+175 = Top 20)
Davis Thompson (+175 = Top 20)
Erik van Rooyen (+400 = Top South African)
Dylan Wu (+115 = Top 40)
Kevin Yu (+130 = Top 40)
Trey Mullinax … It’s the second consecutive edition of the Shriners from which he’s withdrawn after the commitment deadline. Currently 134th in the FedExCup but is fully exempt in 2024 via his breakthrough victory at the 2022 Barbasol Championship. It’s a good thing because he’s just 3-for-16 and without a top-45 finish in the last seven months.
Brice Garnett … The recently turned 40-year-old is poised to finish outside the top 150 in the FedExCup for the second consecutive season – he’s currently 162nd – but only PGA TOUR Q-School could bail him out for 2024. Worse case as it concerns the big leagues, he’ll have Past Champion status but access on merit could be a tougher ticket given the new construct and cadence of the schedule.
Brandon Matthews … Needless to say, his rookie season hasn’t gone as hoped. This is his first early WD, and he’s 192nd in the FedExCup.
Recap – Sanderson Farms Championship
* - For the recommendations below, an asterisk represents a bet that won.
Golfer (recommended bet) = Result
Hayden Buckley (+200 = Top 20) = MC
*Russell Knox (+175 = Top 40) = T28
*Henrik Norlander (+220 = Top 40) = P2
*Vince Whaley (+125 = Top 40) = T28
Kevin Yu (-135 = Top 40) = MC
Bet = Result
WILD CARD: Lucas Herbert (+210 = Miss the Cut) = T28
ALSO STARRING: Mackenzie Hughes (-110 = Top 40) = MC
ALSO STARRING: Kevin Kisner (+250 = Top 40) = T51
TAP-IN: PARLAY: Emiliano Grillo, Beau Hossler and Keith Mitchell (+120 = All to make the cut) = MC/T28/MC
*TAP-IN: Russell Knox (+600 = Top Brit and Irish) = T28
TAP-IN: Nate Lashley (-125 = Top 40) = MC
*TAP-IN: Luke List (-145 = Top 40) = Win
*TAP-IN: Adam Long (+240 = Top 40) = T35
TAP-IN: Sam Ryder (+188 = Top 20) = T51
TAP-IN: Greyson Sigg (+100 = Top 40) = MC
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Rob Bolton is a Golfbet columnist for the PGA TOUR. The Chicagoland native has been playing fantasy golf since 1994, so he was just waiting for the Internet to catch up with him. Follow Rob Bolton on
