Golfbet Insider: Sanderson Farms Championship
6H AGO
After a two-week break, PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf resumes with the Sanderson Farms Championship. It’s the second of the seven tournaments contributing to Segment 1. The remaining six stops will be contested across the next seven weeks with the last dark week bisecting the sextet into a pair of three-week sprints.
Although the Ryder Cup is an unofficial competition (as it concerns the PGA TOUR) and there was no fantasy action (on this website), I wrote an abridged Golfbet Insider for the Ryder Cup. It reviewed the fantasy scoring for the Fortinet Championship that opened the FedExCup Fall. You’ll also find the recap section for the Fortinet and the nine bets that won in it.
Of course, “abridged” can be a relative term. That is to say that I took advantage of the space and performed a deeper analysis than usual. This was triggered by the fact that so much chalk played extremely well at Silverado. It happens infrequently but it’s why investing in chalk in PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf is the ticket to contending for your league championship. So, if you haven’t already, please read it. Even veteran gamers should find it valuable if for no other reason that it fortifies what they already know and how many already play.
Shifting our focus forward, the Sanderson Farms promises to present an experience dissimilar to the Fortinet.
When it comes to chalk at Country Club of Jackson, we probably can agree that it’s chalk adjacent or wannabe chalk. Rostering who steps forward as obvious is primarily for defensive purposes, at least for the conservative among you. Without household names populating the board, it’s a nice time to reach for the guys you wish you could play more regularly if not for the pesky chalk that demands fantasy playing time more often. Even better, because the Sanderson Farms is just the second tournament of the Segment and the season, you’ll forget about a quiet performance in time, while a strong showing would yield bragging rights on top of a lunge.
No matter your approach, there are two don’ts to keep in mind.
First, don’t swing too far into the zany. Blend appropriately with smart defenses. For example, I’m the only Expert in my little league with Nicholas Lindheim rostered, and I’m the only owner with both Nick Hardy and Stephan Jaeger. You could review my opposition for similar one-offs corresponding to their decisions.
Second, don’t expect to employ this strategy often, and if you do with success at Sanderson Farms, retain lowered expectations the next time. Hitting on multiple outliers at any time, much less in consecutive tournaments, is a recipe akin to ripping up lottery tickets. It’s fun for a moment but you won’t be a big winner at the window.
Lucas Herbert (+210 = Miss the Cut) … After missing the cut at The Open Championship in July, he disappeared, at least from inside the ropes. When he returned at the Fortinet Championship, where he finished T30, he talked about how he needed a mental break. Props to the Aussie for taking the initiative despite the timing ahead of the FedExCup Playoffs (for which he didn’t qualify), but it was a stunning revelation given how much mettle he showed in winning the ISPS Handa Championship in Japan the week after cashing at the RBC Heritage. Every fantasy golfer and bettor is careful about leaning into every professional golfer who travels from east to west across the Pacific because of the toll it takes on the body and its clock. Herbert doesn’t have to sweat about his job in 2024 because he’s fully exempt for his victory at the Butterfield Bermuda Championship during the 2021-22 season, but if he’s recaptured the balance that is needed, it still might not be enough to overcome the shortcomings in his bag. He’s a phenomenal putter but his tee-to-green game lacks pizzazz and the Country Club of Jackson requires confidence and execution with the longest clubs.
Odds were sourced on Wednesday, Oct. 4, at 6:30 a.m. ET. For live odds, visit BetMGM.
NOTE: These are notables who are not included in my Power Rankings or Sleepers. Connect with me on Twitter if you want analysis, insight and opinion for anyone else.
Mackenzie Hughes (-110 = Top 40) … You’re not going to bump into many defending champions who are $10 shy of even money for a top 40, but he’s one of them. He’s 3-for-3 at the Country Club of Jackson with a T26 (2016) and a T35 (2021) previously, and his scoring average in 12 rounds here is 68.92, so there’s nothing about which to be concerned in that context. But you knew that there’d be a “but.” The second half of 2022-23 was rough for the Canadian with only one top 40 in his last 10 starts. However, I believe in the power of the positive vibes for certain golfers at certain times, and he’s that right now. He prevailed with far short of an A-game from tee to green last year, and he spun a 63 in the second round to lay the foundation, so this is exactly the kind of spot at which he expects hope and positive intentions with the promise of confidence with the soft landing.
Kevin Kisner (+250 = Top 40) … Yeah, I know, but I really need to remember that no matter what I think, not all golfers of a certain ilk are given markets for a Make/Miss-the-Cut prop. In fact, Hughes wasn’t among the 21 options, either. Of course, there are worse things than endorsing the four-time PGA TOUR winner for a top 40 at these odds, it’s just that he hasn’t delivered one in a stroke-play competition in eight months. Kisner opened the FedExCup Fall with a T62 at Silverado, the first of maybe three appearances he’s eyeing in the series, so tiptoe into the modest turnaround because what he’s lacked in execution, he makes up for in the kind of moxie that defines a professional golfer. The bonus is that he’s fully exempt through 2024, so he’s going to be a very popular own in salary leagues no matter what happens in the interim. Currently, he’s only $33 shy of just $300K.
PARLAY: Emiliano Grillo, Beau Hossler and Keith Mitchell(+120 = All to make the cut)
Russell Knox (+600 = Top Brit and Irish)
Nate Lashley (-125 = Top 40)
Luke List (-145 = Top 40)
Adam Long (+240 = Top 40)
Sam Ryder (+188 = Top 20)
Greyson Sigg (+100 = Top 40)
Christiaan Bezuidenhout … He withdrew from the Fortinet Championship before his second round with a sore wrist. It wasn’t specified which one, but he opened with 75 at Silverado. No one with higher than 74 (Troy Merritt) made the cut, anyway. At 112th in the FedExCup, the South African doesn’t have to hustle but he probably can’t sit still to wait out his position. The thing is, he’s done very little in the last three months to excite every investor. His odds of +125 for a top 40 is respectful to his talent but he didn’t connect for one of those in his last eight starts.
Webb Simpson … In the tease in the Power Rankings, I promised that he was going to appear on this page, but that was before he decided not to play, so this is not where he was expected to land. As it is, it’s his fifth early WD of the season and it means that his debut at the Country Club of Jackson will have to wait. Although it’s been a forgettable 2022-23, there’s never a bad time to remind you that he’s fully exempt through 2026.
Nicolai Højgaard … Perhaps if he and his fellow Euros didn’t just cruise to victory at the Ryder Cup, he’d have made this trip and defaulted into my Power Rankings. (Hat tip to teammate Ludvig Åberg who did and appears prominently in my Power Rankings.) With his equivalent of 437.873 FedExCup points as a non-member, the Dane would slot 105th among members, so he’s all but a lock to earn his 2024 PGA TOUR card in the non-member category. He’s also 26th in the Race to Dubai rankings from which the top 10 not otherwise exempt for PGA TOUR membership will earn cards.
Grayson Murray … Like Højgaard, Murray almost certainly would have been featured in the Power Rankings just a couple of weeks after his victory at the Simmons Bank Open for the Snedeker Foundation on the Korn Ferry Tour. He’s seventh on the Korn Ferry Tour Points List and guaranteed a return to fully exempt status on the PGA TOUR in 2024. It’s a fulfilling experience for the 30-year-old who took a sabbatical in 2021 for treatment of alcohol abuse. Depending on what he does in the FedExCup Fall, he’s going to be a bargain for salary gamers.
Joseph Bramlett … It’s not so notable that he opted out of the commitment as it is that he hasn’t competed since missing the cut at the Genesis Scottish Open, which was his fourth in a row. He also withdrew early from the Barracuda Championship for which an explanation has not emerged. The bright side, at least for him, is that he’s 91st in the FedExCup on the strength of three top 10s and another four top 20s, so he can afford to take his time. It’s also the first time in five tries that he’ll finish inside the top 125 of the FedExCup. That’s no small achievement for the 35-year-old who was sidelined repeatedly until solving the woes with his back.
Aaron Baddeley … With six tournaments remaining to decide PGA TOUR membership in 2024, it’s unconventional for a 42-year-old on Past Champion status to step aside after a commitment, but no worries. At 98th in the FedExCup, he’s in terrific position to retain a spot inside the top 125. There are some salary leaguers who invested at about $200K who are smiling.
POWER RANKINGS – UNITED STATES
* - For the recommendations below, an asterisk represents a bet that won.
GOLFBET INSIDER
Bet = Result
CORRECT SCORE: Europe (+1000 = 14½-13½) = Europe 16½, U.S. 11½
WINNING MARGIN: Europe (+350 = 1-3 points) = 5 points
Tommy Fleetwood (+600 = Top European Points Scorer) = 3 points (Rory McIlroy = 4 points)
Brian Harman (+950 = Top Rookie – Overall) = 2 points (Max Homa = 3½ points)
Jordan Spieth (+800 = Top Captain’s Pick – Overall) = 1 point (Tommy Fleetwood = 3 points)
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Rob Bolton is a Golfbet columnist for the PGA TOUR. The Chicagoland native has been playing fantasy golf since 1994, so he was just waiting for the Internet to catch up with him. Follow Rob Bolton on
