Greg Polson's Muswellbrook and Albury Tips for Friday: $4 Best Bet
Looks a good day to have a punt at Muswellbrook and Albury where a $4 chance looks the best bet of the day.
MUSWELLBROOK
Best Bet: Race 2 (3) Maly Malt
The former Victorian Maly Malt won three races in her first preparation for Sue Grills including a Scone win over 1400m first-up and a recent trial win at Armidale suggests the four-year-old daughter of Capitalist has been primed for another fresh win on Friday. A Kilmore winner when trained by Mike Moroney in Victoria, Maly Malt looks suited tackling a fillies and mare's race and is drawn to get a nice run near the speed which is always a plus around Muswellbrook. Expecting Maly Malt to make a successful return to racing.
Next Best: Race 7 (4) Le Melody
Betting to rated prices punters like myself will be looking for better odds however the Cody Morgan-trained Le Melody does look hard to beat when she resumes from a break tackling open company on Friday. A four-year-old daughter of Your Song, Le Melody has won three of her six starts, all over the 1000m of Friday's assignment and she is unbeaten in two first-up runs. Le Melody gets most of the ticks with the only thing missing, a reasonable price, let's see if the Bookies show their generosity on Friday.
Value Bet: Race 6 (5) Shen Gui
Always hard to assess a performance when a horse wins by a big space so I could be totally wrong with the figures from the close to five length maiden win of the Paul Messara-trained however what I will say is the speed ratings from the race don't match what looked impressive to the eye and the filly looks very short in early betting so went looking for value and came up with the Lou Mary-trained-trained Shen Gui which has won two of his last five. It's a simple case of odds, I would much rather have something on Shen Gui at around the $17 win quote and $3.50 the place rather than Kissaki which is around the $1.45 mark at the time of writing.
Race by Race Tips and Value Prices
Race 1: (12) Neddy $4.50, (1) Mazita $6.00, (5) Vandelight $6.00, (10) Crux Rebellion $7.00
Race 2: (3) Maly Malt $3.00, (5) What A Peach $4.70, (4) Diva Diva $5.50, (2) Denetta $6.00
Race 3: (5) Heika $4.70, (2) Jimmy Manolo $7.00, (4) Tuscan Gaze $7.50, (11) Newfangled Jill $9.00
Race 4: (1) Chevron $3.60, (3) Kinbati $3.70, (6) Metallic Ruler $4.40, (7) Mr Trackside $7.50
Race 5: (2) Gerety $3.20, (8) Lyrical Beauty $3.40, (5) Bangetta $4.90, (3) Tayla The Sailor $6.00
Race 6: (5) Shen Gui $6.50, (2) Dixie Can $6.50, (4) Lucifer's Reward $7.00, (6) Kissaki $7.50
Race 7: (4) Le Melody $3.60, (1) Tucson Valley $6.00, (6) Upside $7.00, (8) Dubbo Wanderer $8.00
Race 8: (11) Golden Eclipse $6.50, (3) Gold Witness $7.00, (1) Media Man $7.00, (4) Bob $9.00
ALBURY
Best Bet: Race 4 (3) Akka's Meteor
He's an 18 start maiden however his two starts for Mitchell Beer suggests Akka's Meteor has a couple of wins in him. After 16 Victorian starts, Akka's Meteor finished fourth at Albury at his first start for the new stable and just found one a touch better when runner at Wagga last start stepping up to 1200m on the back of a four week break between races. 1175m around Albury looks ideal third up with a 2.5kg weight drop going from a set weight maiden to a handicap and Akka's Meteor is drawn to advantage, this looks his race.
Next Best: Race 3 (3) Tyrol
The Todd Smart-trained Tyrol is another that hasn't made winning a habit with a solitary win from 19 starts however the five-year-old son of Snitzel has turned his form around in recent starts. The improved form coincides with a step up in distance winning his maiden at Moruya over 1650m two back before hitting the line strongly when a close second over 1700m at Gundagai last start. The way Tyrol has finished his race off last couple suggests the step up to 2000m will be a plus and the $5 available in early betting looks genuine overs.
Value Bet: Race 5 (1) Move Like Jagger
There's one certainty in the 900m maiden and that is Move Like Jagger wasn't named after this writer however the former Tasmanian does look suited in the short course scamper. Move Like Jagger has shown good speed in most of his races in the Apple Isle at distances ranging from 1009m to 1390m and his speed rating from his third at Devonport two back would be more than competitive in an Albury maiden, worth the punt at the $7 available after scratchings.
Race by Race Tips and Value Prices
Race 1: (3) Galactic Warrior $4.70, (2) Final Comment $5.50, (1) Sacred Oath $5.50, (8) Here Comes Chum $6.50
Race 2: (2) Bia Tinne $3.30, (4) Grisbi's Pal $3.80, (10) Walk Up Start $4.20, (7) Sleigh's Belle $8.50
Race 3: (3) Tyrol $2.20, (4) War At Sea $5.50, (6) Dodgeball $7.50, (9) November Falls $10+
Race 4: (3) Akka's Meteor $1.70, (6) Gray's Reward $4.80, (9) Kirrek $9.00, (10) Prophet Time $10+
Race 5: (1) Move Like Jagger $2.50, (9) Kerle's Miss $6.00, (11) Lovely Llama $6.50, (5) Chicane $10+
Race 6: (5) Sinaloa $4.70, (7) Keith $6.00, (9) Backwater Trader $6.50, (2) Beau Rock $8.50
Race 7: (4) Mr Metrics $2.80, (9) Boadelle $6.00, (6) Keep It Down $8.00, (1) Still In Fashion $10+
Race 8: (2) Don't Hesitate $8.00, (8) A Bit Racey $8.50, (7) More Importance $9.00, (5) Improper $9.00
