Grizzlies vs Heat Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

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24 January 2024

Grizzlies vs Heat Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

With injuries flying in from all directions, this Memphis Grizzlies campaign is mostly a wash. However, it has provided opportunities for others to step up — one of which is highlighted in our NBA betting picks below.

Every year, the basketball gods draw lots, and one promising team with dreams of playoff success gets cut down before they even have a chance. This year, that team was the Memphis Grizzlies.

They've seen nearly every core player in their rotation struck down with injury, in a cavalcade of misfortune so thorough that it's begun to look like divine punishment.

But there’s more to an NBA season than winning it all, and the best time to begin building for next season is the present. As the Grizzlies experiment with a collection of young, unproven, players, they’re in for a mighty daunting test in the form of the Miami Heat on Wednesday, January 27.

The Heat have stagnated recently on offense but are always a menace defensively. They’re looking to bounce back after a trio of discouraging losses that have seen them slip in the standings.

My NBA picks and predictions for Grizzlies vs. Heat spotlight the standout play of Vince Williams Jr. in an otherwise lost season.

Grizzlies vs Heat odds

Grizzlies vs Heat predictions

Not all pain teaches a lesson. The year from hell the Memphis Grizzlies are going through, losing eight of their core rotation players in an avalanche of injuries, has not revealed some profound strategic mistake that led them here.

But it has given a chance for a team that was trying to contend for titles to focus on smaller goals, pan for gold at the edges of their roster, and see if they can find anything worth taking into next season. So far, there’s at least one keeper, and his name is Vince Williams Jr.

Williams is a 6-foot-6 shooting guard, a strong defender, and at least through 33 games of this season, a solid outside shooter. Wing defenders who can guard and shoot are a precious archetype in modern basketball, even more so for a team that often feels like it has to choose between players who excel on one side of the ball and struggle on the other.

His role has grown precipitously as the injury bug has bitten just about everyone around him. He’s also shooting 42.6% from deep in January on 5.2 attempts per game. He’s averaging 16.6 points over his last five and has scored at or above this number in four of those five games.

But neither is he just an outside shooter. He’s got an analytically friendly shot diet, eschewing long twos almost entirely in favor of threes and attempts at the rim. It's seen his effective field goal percentage climb to just shy of 60% in January.

The Miami Heat's defensive philosophy is all about defending the paint. In a perfect world, they’d like to limit threes too, or at least force purely the longer above the break three, but they have shown cracks in that part of their scheme this season.

So not only are they allowing the third-highest amount of threes, per Cleaning the Glass, but they’re also allowing the more valuable corner three at a Top-10 rate.

One of the key ways Miami has such strong defensive performances against opposing guards is through the play of Bam Adebayo. Bam is perhaps the best switch big in the NBA, switching from screener to ball handler off a screen seamlessly and able to contain even the quickest and craftiest guards on drives.

That is much harder to do against Memphis because of Jaren Jackson Jr. JJJ is a real threat to shoot behind the arc and a fluid driver and ball handler, Bam can’t switch off him to contain a driving guard because the other Heat guard won’t be able to contest his jumper.

And the less Bam can impact the Grizzlies' primary action, the more likely Williams is going to get good shots.

My best bet: Vance Williams Jr. Over 12.5 points (-115 at FanDuel)

Grizzlies vs Heat same-game parlay

Vince Williams Jr. to score 12+ points

Bam Adebayo to record 10+ rebounds

Over 212.5

This parlay is all about the unique strengths and weaknesses of Memphis and Miami. Miami invites high-volume opponent 3-point shooting, and Memphis has one of the highest rates of attempted threes in the Association.

That naturally creates a huge amount of variance for the total, and public money has already pushed this number down two points. That's a nice margin to get when you also consider the possibility that Terry Rozier might play his first game tonight. He's having an underrated offensive season, and his presence would go a long way toward this total going Over.

Memphis continues to be a horrendous rebounding team without Steven Adams and Brandon Clarke. Despite not having the size of some of the NBA’s tallest centers, Adebayo is one of the NBA’s best rebounding bigs. His 23.2% defensive rebounding rate would be a career-high, and he’s had 10+ boards in seven of his last 10 games.

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Grizzlies vs Heat spread and Over/Under analysis

Miami opened as 9.5-point points favorites for Wednesday's game against Memphis and has held steady there at most sportsbooks.

The Grizzlies have just taken on too much water with all the injuries. They’ve lost Ja Morant, Desmond Bane, Marcus Smart, and Derrick Rose. That is all four of their Top-4 offensive initiators. They’re relying on a skeleton crew and trying to squeeze playmaking out of John Konchar, who is not a true guard, and Jacob Gilyard who is totally unproven.

For all that, Memphis is still playing incredibly hard. It's getting some nice minutes from Williams and GG Jackson, and JJJ has been doing an admirable job as their leading scorer.

The Heat are also struggling, dropping three straight games and hardly with a murderer's row of competition. Despite leaning on the likes of Jimmy Butler, Bam, Tyler Herro, and Duncan Robinson, they have a 107.5 offensive rating over their last seven games, the second-worst mark in the Association in that time.

Miami is a miserable 8-12 against the spread at home this season.

The total opened between 214 and 214.5 but has since fallen to 212.5 at most sportsbooks.

For all their offensive warts, the Heat remain elite defensively. They’re ranked just 12th on season but that grades out pretty well considering the number of injuries they’ve suffered. They’re healthy outside of Jaime Jacques Jr. now, and that’s seen them playing at a Top-5 level over the past two weeks, per Cleaning the Glass.

However, this number is almost comically low. The Heat have played in a lot of low-scoring games this season, but the Over is actually 11-9 in Miami’s 20 home games.

The Grizzlies have only played in two games in their last 10 that would have come in below 212.5, and their penchant for shooting threes means there’s a real chance they outpace this mark quickly.

One of the key unknowns for this game is whether new addition Rozier will suit up for the Heat. He isn’t injured, but there’s uncertainty about whether the formalities of the trade such as the team physical will be complete in time. If he does, the Heat’s offense is going to look a lot better than it has all season.