Celtics vs. Heat Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets For Eastern Conference Finals Game 1

Odds are against Bam Adebayo and the Miami Heat (44-38), who are an 8.5-point underdog when they square off with Jayson Tatum and the Boston Celtics (57-25) on May 17, 2023. A 212.5-point over/under has been set for the game.

Celtics vs. Heat Odds

• Celtics odds to win: -371
• Heat odds to win: +295
• Spread: Celtics (-8.5)
• Total: 212.5

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Game Time and Information

• When: Wednesday, May 17, 2023 at 8:30 PM ET
• Where: TD Garden in Boston, Massachusetts
• TV: TNT

Who Will Win Celtics vs. Heat?

Celtics and Heat Betting Trends, Records Against the Spread

In games this season they were favored by 8.5 points or more, the Celtics have a 14-14-1 record against the spread.

The Heat are 1-1 against the spread when an underdog by 8.5 points or more this year.

These two teams average a combined 227.4 points per game, 14.9 more points than the over/under of 212.5 set for this matchup.

Opponents of these two teams have averaged a combined 221.2 points per game, 8.7 more than the point total in this matchup.

The Celtics’ average point total in matchups this year is 229.4, 16.9 points higher than the total in this game.

The average point total for Miami this season is 6.8 points higher than this game’s over/under.

Boston’s ATS record is 44-35-3 this season.

The Heat are 30-48-4 ATS this season.

Celtics Stats & Insights

The Celtics’ +535 scoring differential (outscoring opponents by 6.5 points per game) is a result of scoring 117.9 points per game (fourth in the NBA) while giving up 111.4 per outing (fourth in the league).

The Celtics win the rebound battle by an average of 1.3 boards. They are recording 45.3 rebounds per game (seventh in the league) compared to their opponents’ 44 per contest.

Boston knocks down 16 three-pointers per game (second-most in the league), 4.4 more than its opponents (11.6). It is shooting 37.6% from beyond the arc (sixth-best in the NBA) while allowing opponents to shoot 34.5%.

The Celtics score 115.7 points per 100 possessions (third in the league), while allowing 108.8 points per 100 possessions (third in the NBA).

The Celtics have scored at a much higher clip at home than on the road in the 2022-23 season (120.5 at home versus 115.4 on the road), though they have allowed fewer points at home than on the road (110.5 opponent points per home game versus 112.4 on the road).

Heat Stats & Insights

The Heat have a -26 scoring differential, putting up 109.5 points per game (30th in league) and giving up 109.8 (second in NBA).

Miami loses the rebound battle by 1.3 boards on average. It collects 40.6 rebounds per game, 27th in the league, while its opponents pull down 41.9.

The Heat connect on 12 three-pointers per game (16th in the league), 1.1 fewer than their opponents.

The Heat rank 25th in the league averaging 110.4 points per 100 possessions on offense, and defensively are ninth, allowing 110.6 points per 100 possessions.

At home Miami is putting up 111.4 points per game, 3.9 more than it is averaging away (107.5).

Celtics Key Players to Watch

Tatum accumulates 30.1 points and 8.8 rebounds per game, with 4.6 assists.

Marcus Smart scores 11.5 points per game and adds 3.1 rebounds and 6.3 assists for the Celtics.

Tatum leads active Celtics in three-point shooting, knocking down an average of 3.2 shots per game from beyond the arc.

Smart averages 1.5 steals per game, while Derrick White swats 0.9 shots per contest.

Heat Key Players to Watch

Adebayo has been among the team’s best in both scoring (20.4 points per game) and rebounding (9.2 rebounds per game) while adding 3.2 assists per contest.

Jimmy Butler has per-game averages of 22.9 points, 5.3 assists and 5.9 rebounds this season.

Max Strus averages 2.5 made threes per game.

Butler’s 1.8 steals and Adebayo’s 0.8 blocks per game are important to the Heat’s defensive performance.

• Pick ATS: Celtics (- 8.5)
• Pick OU:

  Over (212.5)
  

• Prediction:
  Celtics 117 – Heat 107