Celtics vs Heat Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

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25 January 2024

Celtics vs Heat Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

Fresh off a defeat at the hands of Memphis, Miami will look to step up against the visiting Celtics. Unfortunately the Heat just don't have what it takes to keep up with Boston, and our NBA picks expect the C's to dominate early.

You might not expect a rematch of the Eastern Conference Finals to have a three-bucket spread, but that is just how well the Boston Celtics have played this year. They can go on the road against their most frustrating rival and still be favored by eight points in the NBA odds.

Some of that ties to the Miami Heat’s struggles this season, too. While they remain in the Top 6 out East, it is by the skin of their teeth, and Miami’s point differential this season suggests it's more likely to end up in the play-in than not. Then again, that was the path the Heatles took last season all the way to the NBA Finals.

This is not the postseason though. This is a regular-season game, and that makes me lean toward Boston in my free NBA picks for the the Celtics vs Heat on January 25.

Celtics vs Heat odds

Celtics vs Heat predictions

Someday the NBA will better its scheduling. Someday a matchup of this magnitude, between two rivals that have defined the Eastern Conference this decade, will not be tilted by a rest disadvantage. But someday is not today.

Instead, the Miami Heat are playing on the second night of a back-to-back while the Boston Celtics have had two days to rest on this road trip. Sure, maybe the C's indulged in the South Beach nightlife when they first landed with that time off, but even if they did, they then had a night to recover. While hypothetically recovering, Boston could watch Miami lose to the depleted Grizzlies last night despite playing its best lineup.

Bam Adebayo approached 40 minutes, Tyler Herro neared 38, and Jimmy Butler played just short of 35. Yet they lost to Vince Williams Jr., GG Jackson and Scottie Pippen Jr. That’s not a joke. Those were the Grizzlies’ three leading scorers in the upset as 11.5-point underdogs.

Maybe the Heat were caught looking ahead. An under-acknowledged piece of the NBA is that such baffling upsets happen to every team throughout a season. And it may be to Boston’s disadvantage tonight. Logically, Butler is furious and looking to take it out on his usual postseason foil.

But a rest advantage still stands out. The best team in the Eastern Conference doesn’t need that edge, but the Celtics have it.

How would Miami usually counteract that? By getting hot from deep. That was how Herro and Duncan Robinson enjoyed star moments in past postseasons.

But the Heat have somewhat abandoned 3-pointers this season. At least, relative to the rest of the league. Only 38.8% of Miami’s field-goal attempts come from beyond the arc, and just 32.6% of Heat points come on those shots.

Boston will force Miami to try from deep, with opponents taking 40.8% of their shots against the Celtics from long range. Only six teams force threes at a higher rate, and only five give up a lower 3-point percentage than Boston’s 35.0%. (Of note, both the Pelicans and the Rockets are among those elite defenses ahead of the Celtics in these ponderings.)

Doubting Butler with a grudge feels foolhardy, but the Heat should struggle out of the gates tonight, if not all night. Without hot shooting early to keep things relatively even, expecting the Celtics to have a convincing first-half provides value.

My best bet: Celtics first half -4 (-110 at DraftKings)

Celtics vs Heat same-game parlay

Celtics first half -4

Derrick White Over 2.5 made threes

Kristaps Porzingis Over 1.5 made threes

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Studying the disparity in 3-pointer successes illustrates how cowardly it is to take the Celtics to cover their first-half spread rather than the full-game number of -8 — but that does not make it a bad bet.

And the disparity in 3-pointer successes is wider than acknowledged already. No team in the NBA scores more of its points from beyond the arc than Boston, and only Cleveland attempts them at a higher rate.

Meanwhile, Adebayo’s interior presence helps force opponents into taking 42.7% of their shots from deep against the Heat. While that is a viable defensive approach, it's less encouraging when Miami then gives up a pedestrian 3-point shooting percentage of 36.3%.

Teams take a lot of deep shots against the Heat, and they do so relatively successfully. Boston will appreciate that. That should boost any and all Celtics 3-point props. Taking Derrick White at Over 2.5 threes provides some boost (+105) while Kristaps Porzingis’ Over 1.5 threes balances that out a touch (-166).

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Celtics vs Heat spread and Over/Under analysis

Before the Heat lost to the Grizzlies, sportsbooks opened this number with Miami as a 6-point underdog, a number that rose to +7 before that defeat and then continued up to +8 on Thursday morning.

Now halfway through the season, the Heat are 1-3-1 against the spread on the second night of back-to-backs. And is it pertains to the above best bet, Miami is 0-5 straight up and 1-4 ATS in those first halves.

The total was not as influenced by the struggles with Memphis, opening at 225 and knocking back and forth with 224.5 before settling at the latter number early Thursday. The Heat’s back-to-backs do not yield as clear a total trend, the Under cashing in three of those five games.