Grizzlies vs. Lakers Predictions, Picks & Odds: Will Hachimura Stay Hot for Los Angeles?

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24 April 2023

Grizzlies vs. Lakers Predictions, Picks & Odds: Will Hachimura Stay Hot for Los Angeles?

The Los Angeles Lakers hope to go up 3-1 with a win in Monday's Game 4 against the Memphis Grizzlies, but will Rui Hachimura continue his great form this series? Read on for our Grizzlies vs. Lakers prediction based on the best NBA odds.

The Los Angeles Lakers jumped out to a huge lead in the first quarter and never looked back en route to a double-digit win over the Memphis Grizzlies during Saturday's Game 3. But can the Lakers maintain momentum in Game 4 to take a 3-1 lead before the series heads back to Memphis?

Oddsmakers must believe so, as the Lakers are listed as 4.5-point favorites over the Grizzlies. Based on how this series has gone, Rui Hachimura might be the difference with how well he's played for Los Angeles. That's why we are attacking his prop market instead.

Here is our best Grizzlies vs. Lakers prediction (odds via DraftKings; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Grizzlies vs. Lakers prediction

Rui Hachimura Under 14.5 points + assists (-125 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

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In my Milwaukee Bucks vs. Miami Heat prediction for Monday, I explained the importance of taking advantage of recency bias. Well, that logic once again applies to this pick.

Hachimura has scored 15-plus points off the bench in three consecutive games to start this series, marking the first time that's been done by a Laker reserve since 2008. He scored 29 in Game 1, followed that up with 20 in Game 2, and added 16 points in Saturday's win.

As a result, Hachimura's Over on a points prop of 13.5 is now the most popular bet in terms of tickets for this game at BetMGM.

This feels like an overreaction to what we have seen to start this series. Hachimura averaged 11.2 points and 0.9 assists per game during the 2022-23 season and has cleared this mark of 14.5 points and assists in only nine of his last 30 games. For the season, Hachimura has a hit rate of 36% on this combo prop.

We did go with the combo prop for this game because it provides some extra wiggle for a player who has logged only three assists in this series. NumberFire projects 11.4 points and 1.2 assists for Hachimura in Game 4, giving us an edge above 17% on this Under.

A big part of why Hachimura has crushed Overs in this series is because he has hit multiple 3-pointers in all three games thus far. He is shooting 75% from long range against Memphis, suggesting regression is coming for a career 34.7% 3-point shooter. It doesn't hurt that the Under on 1.5 3-pointers for Hachimura is juiced to -175 or longer at most sportsbooks, either.

Hachimura has been a pleasant surprise in this matchup, but I'll bet on his run finally coming to an end in a game in which the Grizzlies are going to be more aware of where he is on the floor.

Grizzlies vs. Lakers best odds

DraftKings (-125)

Only three of the best sports betting sites even have a combo prop of points and assists available for Hachimura, with two of them in agreement that the Under should be priced at -125. We placed this bet at DraftKings because that shop tends to have better same-game parlay options compared to BetMGM.

As far as price shopping, it is worth mentioning that FanDuel has Hachimura's points prop juiced heavier than this combo prop at DraftKings and BetMGM. PointsBet has actually set his scoring prop at 12.5. Both lines bode well for our Under position on Hachimura in Game 4.

Another way of fading Hachimura is by betting on Jarred Vanderbilt, who will likely see more playing time while trying to defend Ja Morant for four quarters. Vanderbilt's scoring prop has been set as low as 4.5, a number he cleared in Game 2 for the Lakers.

Grizzlies vs. Lakers odds

Grizzlies vs. Lakers odds analysis

The lines for this game haven't really moved much at our best NBA betting sites. The Lakers have remained 4.5-point favorites since opening, while the total is sitting at 221.5 after starting at 220.5 at the best sportsbooks.