Lakers vs. Grizzlies Predictions, Picks & Odds: How Will Memphis Respond in Game 2?

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19 April 2023

Lakers vs. Grizzlies Predictions, Picks & Odds: How Will Memphis Respond in Game 2?

The Los Angeles Lakers stole Game 1, but can the Memphis Grizzlies respond in Game 2 if they don’t have Ja Morant? Read on for our Lakers vs. Grizzlies prediction based on the best NBA odds.

The Los Angeles Lakers got an otherworldly defensive performance from Anthony Davis in Game 1. Austin Reaves and Rui Hachimura also combined for 52 points in Sunday’s 128-112 road victory over the Memphis Grizzlies.

After a convincing performance in the opener, the Lakers are hoping to go up 2-0 before heading back home. With Grizzlies star Ja Morant listed as a game-time decision, will Memphis be able to respond to even up this opening-round series?

Here is our best Lakers vs. Grizzlies prediction (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Lakers vs. Grizzlies prediction

Dillon Brooks Over 2.5 3-pointers (+130 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

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Hand up, this is a bit of a heat check.

For those that have been following along, we are on a four-game win streak on these NBA previews this week. This run could immediately be halted by betting on a career 34.2% 3-point shooter to knock down a trio of triples.

So why are we doing that? Well, because the Lakers are going to let Brooks get plenty of looks from deep. He went 2-for-9 from long range in Game 1, which was the second-highest number of attempts by a Memphis player on Sunday behind Desmond Bane’s 3-for-10 effort.

But this is all by design. The Lakers’ defensive strategy has typically been to go under on ball screens with Morant, while shading to shooters like Bane and Luke Kennard. This allows for more space for players like Brooks, who also happened to take nine of his 13 field goal attempts from long range.

Across three regular-season meetings and one playoff matchup against the Lakers this year, Brooks has attempted a combined 29 triples and knocked down eight of them. Bane, the team’s best 3-point shooter, has gotten off 24 total looks from deep in those same matchups.

Brooks has only cleared this mark once against the Lakers, but this is a value play based on how many shots he should get from deep in this one. Brooks has gone Over this total in two of his last four contests, attempting eight or more 3-pointers in all four outings.

If Morant is unable to go, that should put more pressure on Brooks, Bane, and Jaren Jackson Jr. to even up this series. Brooks typically provides his biggest impact on the defensive end, but we will bet on him making a major contribution offensively in Game 2.

Lakers vs. Grizzlies best odds

DraftKings (+130)

Most of our best NBA betting sites are in agreement that this line should be set at 2.5, though PointsBet doesn’t have odds for this player prop. DraftKings offers the best price on Over 2.5 3-pointers with a value of +130.

We would play this at anything +120 or better before looking elsewhere in the player prop market.

For those who are curious, a two-leg SGP of Brooks to hit three-plus 3-pointers in a Grizzlies’ victory would net a +310 payout at DraftKings. FanDuel Sportsbook offers a +289 price on that particular same-game parlay.

I'm also sprinkling a bit on Brooks to finish with 20-plus points in Game 2, which is currently being priced at +350 via FanDuel. Let's go big on Brooks, what could possibly go wrong?

Lakers vs. Grizzlies odds

Lakers vs. Grizzlies odds analysis

This spread has moved around quite a bit, with the Grizzlies opening as 1-point favorites before the line flipped to Lakers -1. Morant’s status is a big reason for this movement, especially when you consider Memphis closed as a 3.5-point favorite in Game 1.

The total dropped to 227 after opening at 228.5 when betting lines were first released.