Nuggets vs. Heat Prediction, Pick & Odds: Who Will Take Control of 2023 NBA Finals?

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06 June 2023

Nuggets vs. Heat Prediction, Pick & Odds: Who Will Take Control of 2023 NBA Finals?

The venue of the NBA Finals shifts to Miami as the Heat look to take a series lead on the visiting Denver Nuggets. Read on for our Nuggets vs. Heat prediction based on the best NBA odds.

The Miami Heat stole home-court advantage with Sunday's 111-108 victory over the Denver Nuggets in Game 2. This NBA Finals matchup is now tied with the series headed back to Miami for two games, so can the Heat cease control at home?

Denver is a favorite on the road, but the spread is below a single possession at the best sports betting apps. With a competitive matchup on deck, we are attacking a prop angle for a player who made a surprising start in Game 2 a few days ago.

Here is our best Nuggets vs. Heat prediction (odds via the best sports betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Nuggets vs. Heat prediction

Kevin Love Over 5.5 rebounds + assists (-135 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

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After not playing a second in Game 1 of the NBA Finals, Kevin Love was thrust into the starting lineup for Game 2. In 22 minutes of action, Love finished with six points, 10 rebounds, and one assist. He recorded two steals, knocked down a pair of 3-pointers, and even managed to draw a charge.

The Heat outscored the Nuggets by 18 points when Love was on the floor. This came after Love didn't play the final two games of the Eastern Conference Finals, so to say Erik Spoelstra's decision to start Love was a surprise would be an understatement.

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But that's the nature of the NBA Playoffs. Role players can move in and out of the rotation based on matchups, and 34-year-old Love was ready to deliver when his number was called.

“When I heard this morning, I didn’t think I was going to take a single shot on offense,” Love told Joe Vardon of The Athletic. “My plan was just to come out and board the s— out of it, allow Bam (Adebayo) to be able to play back near the rim, and just get (the rebound) and fire it out.”

That's the type of mindset we are willing to back for a rebound-related prop ahead of Game 3. The Over on Love's rebound prop of 4.5 is juiced as high as -170 on Pinnacle or -160 on DraftKings, so we prefer taking his combo prop instead. Love can clear this number on rebounds alone, but he provides enough as a passer to potentially record at least one assist.

According to NBA.com, Love had 14 rebound chances in Game 2 based on advanced tracking data. Only Nikola Jokic (20) had more such opportunities. Per props.cash, Love has cleared this prop in 14 of his 19 games this postseason. He is averaging 6.1 rebounds and 1.4 assists per contest during this playoff run.

With Miami likely to keep Love in the lineup for Game 3, we like backing him in this sometimes overlooked combo prop market.

Nuggets vs. Heat best odds

BetMGM (+105)

When we placed this bet on Tuesday, the line for Love's combo prop of rebounds and assists was set at 5.5. The line has since jumped up to 6.5, with the Over being priced at +105 at BetMGM. We would be willing to play a plus-money price on the Over at 6.5.

There are still other ways to find value on Love at our best NBA betting sites, however. His points, rebounds, and assists line has been set at 11.5, with Caesars offering the best price on the Over at -123.

NumberFire projects Love to finish with 7.4 points, 6.6 rebounds, and 1.9 assists, showing significant value on all of his Overs based on the current market.

Nuggets vs. Heat odds

Nuggets vs. Heat odds analysis

The Nuggets opened as 2-point favorites at the best sportsbooks, but the line is now sitting at 2.5 across the board. The total started at 216.5 but has dropped down to 214.5 and 214 after a pair of slower-paced games to start the series.