Guardians vs Rays Prediction, Picks, Odds

Our betting picks may not fully side with the underdog Guardians snagging a win tonight at the Trop, but we do like starter Xzavion Curry's strikeout prop, currently set as low as 3.5. As he gets lengthened out in the rotation, he's getting more chances.

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The first installment of this three-game series gets underway Friday evening with the AL East’s Tampa Bay Rays hosting the AL Central’s Cleveland Guardians.

This series presents a massive opportunity for a pair of second-place teams looking to chip away at their respective divisional leaders.

Will the Rays defend their home diamond, or can the Guardians pull off the upset? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Guardians vs Rays on Friday, August 11.

Guardians vs Rays odds

Guardians vs Rays predictions

Right-hander Xzavion Curry is slated to take the mound for the Cleveland Guardians on Friday, and he is a good candidate to back. After operating out of the bullpen for most of the season, Cleveland plans to stick with Curry in the rotation the rest of the year while Triston McKenzie and Shane Bieber remain sidelined with injuries.

In his last outing, Curry was entrusted by the Guardians to go five innings, his longest outing of the season. He did not disappoint, allowing two runs on four hits while striking out four. It has been a strong campaign thus far for the right-hander, who is 3-1 with a 2.95 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in 29 appearances on the mound.

Specifically, we’re going to back Curry in the strikeout department. Currently, you can find his strikeout prop at 3.5 across the board. Not only did Curry eclipse this figure last time out, but he is averaging 7.5 K/9 over his past five outings.

While the Tampa Bay Rays are very strong at the dish, they also rank in the bottom half of the league in K% when facing right-handed pitching. Opposing starting pitchers have recorded at least four strikeouts in 10 of the past 13 games against Tampa Bay.

Finally, nobody on this Rays roster has previously faced Curry, so it may take a few rotations through the batting order to figure him out.

My best bet: Xzavion Curry Over 3.5 strikeouts (-138 at FanDuel)

Guardians vs Rays same-game parlay

Xzavion Curry Over 3.5 strikeouts (-138)

Under 8.5 (-114)

Rays moneyline (-220)

We already covered the first leg in the best bet section above, now let’s look at the other two.

Even though we are backing Curry in the strikeout department, just a couple of runs surrendered could be enough to hand Cleveland the loss. Outside of Jose Ramirez, this lineup is terrible at the plate, ranking in the Bottom 5 of the league in runs scored per game, SLG, OPS and home runs.

Meanwhile, they go against a former teammate in Aaron Civale, who takes the mound for the Rays in his second start since getting shipped over to Tampa Bay. Putting together a tremendous campaign, Civale is 5-3 with a 2.55 ERA and 1.09 WHIP through 14 starts.

Not only does he pace Curry in the surface-level stats, but Civale also ranks better across the board in his underlying metrics as well. With the better lineup, better starting pitcher and home field advantage, look for the Rays to take care of business in a relatively low-scoring affair.

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Guardians vs Rays moneyline and Over/Under analysis

Tampa Bay opened as a –210 favorite and was quickly bet down to the current price of -200. This line movement makes sense considering Curry’s unpredictable long-term success as a starter and whether or not he can put together another solid performance.

I think he can, although I also still believe Tampa Bay will win the game. That brings us to the total, which opened at 8.5 and has stayed at that number.

There will likely be some give-and-pull with this line, again circling back to the public’s mistrust on Curry’s performance as a starter in the long run. With that said, until he proves he can’t handle the increased role, I trust him enough to not get the doors blown off.

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Trend to know

Opposing starting pitchers have recorded four or more strikeouts in 10 of the past 13 games against Tampa Bay. Find more MLB betting trends for Guardians vs Rays

Guardians vs Rays game info

Starting pitchers

Xzavion Curry (3-1, 2.95 ERA): After serving as a strong reliever for most of the season, Cleveland moved Curry to the rotation due to injuries. Entrusting him to toss five innings in his latest outing, his most of the season, the Guardians were not disappointed with his performance. Until he proves otherwise, we should trust Curry in this increased role.

Aaron Civale (5-3, 2.55 ERA): Civale gets the opportunity to throw against his former team for the first time since his deadline acquisition by the Rays. Not only are Civale’s surface-level stats strong this season, but his underlying metrics suggest a good finish to the season is likely. Currently, he ranks in the 65th percentile or higher in hard-hit rate, xERA/xwOBA, xSLG and barrel rate.