Cleveland Guardians at Tampa Bay Rays odds, picks and predictions

The Tampa Bay Rays (69-48) welcome the Cleveland Guardians (56-60) to Tropicana Field Friday. First pitch is set for 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Guardians vs. Rays odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: First meeting of 2023; Guardians won last season’s series 4-2

The Rays lost to the St. Louis Cardinals 5-2 Thursday, losing the series 2-1. Tampa Bay is 2nd in the AL East, 3 games behind the Baltimore Orioles. The Rays are 38-21 at home this season and 6-4 over their last 10.

The Guardians split a 4-game series with the Toronto Blue Jays to start the week, including a 4-3 Thursday in the finale. Cleveland is 25-32 on the road this season and 3-7 over its last 10 games and is 3 1/2 games back of the AL Central.

Guardians at Rays projected starters

RHP Xzavion Curry vs. RHP Aaron Civale

Curry (3-1, 2.95 ERA) makes his 5th start and 30th appearance. He has a 1.16 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 6.3 K/9 through 64 IP.

• Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 4 K in 5-3 home loss vs. Chicago White Sox Sunday
• 2023 road splits: 1-1, 3.30 ERA in 30 IP through 2 starts and 12 relief appearances
• Has never pitched against Tampa Bay

Civale (5-3, 2.55 ERA) makes his 15th start. He has a 1.09 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 6.9 K/9 through 81 1/3 IP for the Rays and Guardians.

• Last start: Loss, 4 1/3 IP, 9 H, 3 ER, 0 BB, 4 K in 4-2 road loss vs. Detroit Tigers Saturday
• Had 13 starts with Cleveland before being traded to Tampa Bay on July 31, 2023
• 2023 home splits: 3-1, 3.00 ERA in 39 IP through 6 starts

Guardians at Rays odds

BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:07 a.m. ET.

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Guardians at Rays picks and predictions

Prediction

Rays 4, Guardians 3

PASS.

The Rays (-200) have been strong at home this season but not strong enough to take them with this price tag.

The Guardians won 2 of 4 games against Toronto and are playing better than their recent record indicates. Nonetheless, a play on them is better made on the run line here.

BET GUARDIANS +1.5 (-125).

Cleveland is 20-13 this season as a road underdog. The Guardians have one of their best pitchers on the mound and should be able to keep the game close. They have either won or lost by a single run in 5 of their last 8 games.

The Rays are 9-11 over their last 20 games, so not quite as dominant as they usually are.

The last 5 games between Tampa Bay and Cleveland, dating back to 2022, have been within 1 run as well.

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LEAN UNDER 8.5 (-105).

The Guardians are 45-66-5 O/U this season and have gone Under in 5 straight games and 9 of their last 10 as well. Cleveland has scored exactly 1 run in 3 of its last 4 games — its bats just aren’t electric as of late.

The last 4 games between these two teams have gone Under, and the Rays have gone Under in 4 of their last 6.

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