Guardians-Rays prediction: Picks, odds on Friday, August 11
The Tampa Bay Rays (69-48) look to continue their playoff push as they welcome the struggling Cleveland Guardians (56-60) to town for a weekend set. First pitch of Friday’s opener is set for 6:40 p.m. ET from Tropicana Field. Righty Xzavion Curry (3-1, 2.95 ERA) will go for the visitors, while Tampa gives the ball to Aaron Civale (5-3, 2.55) against his former team.
The Rays dropped the final two of their series against the Cardinals this week, dropping their record since July 1 to 12-20. Tampa still has a 2.5-game lead over the Astros for the top AL Wild Card spot as they get set to head out on a West Coast swing next week, starting with three games in San Francisco against the Giants. Cleveland, meanwhile, is just 3-7 in their last 10, more or less punting on a chance to contend in the AL Central by selling at the trade deadline. They’ll wrap up their road trip next week with two games against the intrastate rival Reds in Cincinnati.
Tampa enters as -218 favorites on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the Guardians at +180. The run total is set at 8.5.
Guardians-Rays picks: Friday, August 11
Injury report
Guardians
Out: C/1B David Fry (hamstring), SP Cal Quantrill (shoulder), 1B Josh Naylor (oblique), INF Tyler Freeman (shoulder), SP Shane Bieber (elbow), SP Triston McKenzie (elbow)
Rays
Day to day: SP Tyler Glasnow (back)
Out: C Francisco Mejia (knee), INF Taylor Walls (oblique)
Starting pitchers
Xzavion Curry vs. Aaron Civale
Injuries to Bieber and McKenzie have thrust the reliever Curry into Cleveland’s rotation, where he’ll make his fifth start of the year on Friday night. He pitched a season-high five innings last time out, giving up two runs on four hits to the Chicago White Sox. It’s the first time he’s pitched more than three frames, but he’s yet to allow more than two runs in any start this season.
Civale had a rocky start to his Rays career last weekend, giving up three runs on nine hits over four innings in a loss to the Detroit Tigers. The righty spent the first 4.5 years of his career in Cleveland after being drafted by the Guardians in the third round back in 2016. Prior to the trade he’d been in the midst of a career year, punctuated by a 1.45 ERA across six starts in the month of July.
Over/Under pick
The Guardians have been the worst offense in baseball since the start of August, as they traded away first baseman Josh Bell, lost Josh Naylor due to injury and have kicked off a youth movement by prioritizing playing time for a number of young players. That’s probably the best thing for the future, but in the present it means a lot of dismal numbers: Cleveland hasn’t scored more than four runs all month and scored just six runs combined in four games against the Blue Jays earlier this week. Civale shouldn’t have any trouble with this group, and I don’t think this slumping Rays offense has enough juice to clear this over on their own.
Pick: Under 8.5
Moneyline pick
Cleveland’s only hope right now is winning a lot of 2-1 games, but that obviously doesn’t leave a ton of margin for error — Tampa has the advantage both on the mound and at the plate in this one, and I think they’ll do enough off of Curry to back Civale to his first win with his new team.
