Guardians vs. Royals Prediction: MLB Betting Lines & Picks

The Cleveland Guardians (49-50) host the Kansas City Royals (28-73) to start a three-game series at Progressive Field, with first pitch at 7:10 PM ET on Monday. The Guardians are on the back of a series victory over the Phillies, and the Royals a series loss to the Yankees.

The Guardians are favored (-200 on the moneyline) when they square off against the Royals (+168). The game’s over/under is set at 8.5.

The insights in the following article reflect odds as of July 24, 2023 at 5:12 PM ET. Ready to bet?

Guardians vs Royals Betting Lines

Guardians Betting Insights

• This season, the Guardians have won 29 out of the 52 games, or 55.8%, in which they’ve been favored.
• Cleveland has a record of 3-7, a 30% win rate, when favored by -200 or more by bookmakers this season.
• The bookmakers’ moneyline implies a 66.7% chance of a victory for the Guardians.
• So far this season, Cleveland and its opponents have hit the over in 44 of 99 games with a total.
• The Guardians are 50-49-0 against the spread in their 99 chances this season.

Guardians Last 10 Games Trend

Royals Betting Insights

• The Royals have been chosen as underdogs in 88 games this year and have walked away with the win 25 times (28.4%) in those games.
• Kansas City has a win-loss record of 9-21 when favored by +168 or worse by oddsmakers this year.
• The Royals have an implied victory probability of 37.3% according to the moneyline set for this matchup.
• Kansas City and its opponents have gone over in 46 of its 101 games with a total set by sportsbooks this season.
• The Royals are 40-61-0 against the spread in their 101 games with a line set by sportsbooks this season.

Royals Last 10 Games Trend

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Guardians Probable Pitcher – Logan Allen

• Allen and his team are 10-3-0 ATS this season when he starts.
• The left-hander allowed one hit in five scoreless innings pitched against the Pittsburgh Pirates on Tuesday.
• Allen has started 13 games this season, and he’s lasted five or more innings nine times. He averages 5.2 innings per appearance.
• He has kept opponents from scoring an earned run in three straight appearances.
• Allen’s team is 4-2 this season when he starts and they are the moneyline favorite.
• Allen’s team has won 10 of his 13 starts this season.
• Out of Allen’s 13 starts with a total this season, six have hit the over.

Guardians Relief Pitchers

Royals Probable Pitcher – Ryan Yarbrough

• Yarbrough gets the start for the Royals, his sixth of the season. He is 2-5 with a 5.21 ERA and 23 strikeouts over 38 2/3 innings pitched.
• In his last outing on Thursday against the Detroit Tigers, the left-hander tossed 5 2/3 innings, allowing three earned runs while surrendering six hits.
• Yarbrough will try to prolong a four-game streak of pitching five or more innings (he’s averaging 3.2 frames per appearance).
• He has had three appearances this season that he held his opponents to zero earned runs.
• The Royals have been the moneyline underdog in five of Yarbrough’s starts this season, and they went 2-3 in those games.
• Yarbrough’s team has won two of his five starts.
• Yarbrough’s starts with a set total this season have gone over the run total in one of five games.

Royals Relief Pitchers

Guardians Hitting Trends

• The Guardians are 13-5 this season in games when they send out two or more long balls.
• Cleveland has put up five or more extra-base hits in 19 games this season, and has gone 14-5 in those contests.
• The club has racked up eight or more hits 62 times this season, and has a 34-28 record in those games.
• Cleveland has a 29-8 record in games this season when it scored at least five runs.
• The Guardians are 13-9 in the 22 games this season when they have drawn at least five walks.

Royals Hitting Trends

• They have won seven of the 22 games this season in which they hit two or more home runs.
• In 24 games with five or more extra-base hits this season, it has a record of 10-14.
• They have won 21 of the 56 games in which they’ve collected eight or more hits this season.
• Kansas City has won 18 of its 30 games this season in which it scored more than four runs.
• They have a 3-11 record this season when drawing five or more walks in a game.

Guardians vs. Royals Prediction

Moneyline Pick: Guardians (-200)
Over/Under Pick: Under (8.5)

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.

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