Gulfstream Park Oaks Predictions, Best Bets, Odds

Fresh off a strong runner-up finish last time in New Orleans, Miracle tops a field of eight Kentucky Oaks hopefuls in Saturday’s Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Oaks.

Trained by Todd Pletcher, the daughter of Mendelssohn will be making her second start of 2023, after setting all the pace and fighting all the way to the wire in the Grade 2 Rachel Alexandra at Fair Grounds.

Last season, the New York-bred filly was an easy debut winner at Saratoga, before finishing in the top three in a trio of consecutive stakes races for fellow state-breds.

Chief among her opposition in the 1 1/16-mile Gulfstream Park Oaks will be her stablemate Atomically.

A daughter of Girvin, she was an impressive winner of two straight at Gulfstream Park last season, including the My Dear Girl Stakes. 

In two starts since the bay filly finished seventh in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, and more recently was a decent third in the Grade 3 Forward Gal Stakes.

As a trail race, the $250,000 Gulfstream Park Oaks will offer qualifying points for the Kentucky Oaks on a scale of 100-40-30-20-10 to the first five finishers.

Gulfstream Park Oaks Predictions and Race Analysis

Miracle

This New York-bred daughter of Mendelssohn outran her odds last time with a very good performance in the Grade 2 Rachel Alexandra at Fair Grounds. A repeat performance gives her a big shot on Saturday. 

The early fractions of that race were slow, though, and she could be in for a more contested pace here. She has had four chances in stakes races before and has yet to win one, but has run a solid second in the last three. 

After running big as a longshot last time, she will likely go favored here. She is an obvious threat, but I like one filly better.

Atomically

This daughter of Girvin returned to the races two months ago in the Grade 3 Forward Gal and ran pretty well to be third behind a strong run by the winner. Given the experience and pointed for this, she should be ready to run an improved race on Saturday. 

A strong stakes winner over the track and at the same distance last year, this seems like a great spot for her to pick up her first graded stakes win. 

She could only manage a mid-pack result in last fall’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, but that race was much tougher than this. The Todd Pletcher-trainee should sit a good trip sitting off the early speed here. She is the top pick.

Dorth Vader

After a poor race in the Gasparilla Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs, this Girvin filly was let go at odds of 46/1 last time in the Grade 2 Davona Dale. She contested the pace, as she usually does, took over in the stretch and pulled away for an easy win for the upset.

A threat to do it again, she will need to string together two big performances in a row if she is to repeat. With the early speed of the favorite and a few others in here, that task will be tougher this time. 

Clearly underrated going into the last one, she must be respected here, but I think the pace pressure will be her undoing this time around.

Sacred Wish

The least experienced filly in the field, this daughter of Not This Time moves to the barn of George Weaver after running in a pair of maiden sprints at Oaklawn Park. 

This seems like a big ask, moving well up in both distance and class, but her races in Arkansas are quite promising. In her debut, she rallied for third against some pretty nice fillies. Most recently, she dominated in pretty fast time. 

The wildcard of the field, she may have found a pretty good spot for her graded stakes debut, but there are too many question marks to make her a top pick.

Infinite Diamond

A stakes winner over the track, this filly will need to bounce back after a pretty dull fourth-place finish behind Dorth Vader in the Davona Dale. 

Two starts back, she was able to press the pace before taking over for the win in the listed Cash Run. With other speed in the race, I am not sure if she will be able to be as forwardly placed as she seems to prefer. 

She appears to be a filly with some talent. If she can put it all together on Saturday, she could surprise, but I will need to see her prove it against good horses before I pick her in a race like this.

Affirmative Lady

Trained by Graham Motion, this daughter of Arrogate will add blinkers on Saturday. A winner of 1-of-5 races lifetime, they could add some early focus for a filly who likes to rally.

Coming in off an maiden victory over the track, she will move back to stakes company here, after finishing off 2022 with a good second in the Grade Demoiselle and then starting this season with a well-beaten third in the Busanda. 

She is not out of it, but her speed figures do fall a bit short of the best in here. I like her more for the exotics than the win.

Flakes

This Frosted filly has won two of three starts for trainer Juan Alvarado. Showing good tactical speed, she had an easy debut win and a solid allowance victory last time. 

In between, though, she was unable to do anything in the Forward Gal Stakes. With more experience, it’s possible she moves forward and does better in her stakes attempt. 

Having said that, the two races she did win look quite a bit cheaper than this. Breaking from the rail, she will need to work out a good trip. I like others better. 

Just Katherine

This daughter of Justify has only sprinted against maidens so far, but she has improved each race and comes in off a nice win going 7-furlongs over the track. 

Trained by Jose Jiminez, she will not only be attempting two turns for the first time but also stakes fillies. If she can take another step forward here, she could prove that she fits with these.

Like every other filly in the race, she is not out of it, but given her bump up in class on Saturday, I am looking elsewhere.